2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 6

Well this is the final post of my 2010 forecast series, and today I will be attempting to project what the 2010 opening day bullpen will look like. I will almost surely be wrong, but I'll do my best.

Bullpen:
  • Joel Hanrahan:
    2009: 64.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 10.1 SO/9, 4.8 BB/9
    Hanrahan is one of the 4 locks for the 2010 opening day bullpen. His 2009 numbers do little to show what kind of pitcher he is. Thanks to a lack of defense and a bunch of bad luck on the low-morale Washington Nationals, he was terrible. When he came to the Pirates, he pitched much, much better, posting a 1.72 ERA in 31.1 IP with a 10.6 SO/9 ratio. As of right now, Hanrahan is the Pirates 2010 closer, however there is a very good chance the Pirates will sign someone to compete with him for that job. The names that have brought up are Octavio Dotel and Kevin Gregg. It's really up in the air if they will sign either of those guys. While it could go either way, I'm leaning more towards the belief that they won't sign either of them, and Hanrahan will be the closer.
    2010 peak: 75 IP, 2.50 ERA, 11.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9, 45 SV
    2010 expectation: 75 IP, 3.50 ERA, 10.0 SO/9, 4.3 BB/9, 30 SV

  • Evan Meek:
    2009: 47.0 IP, 3.45 ERA, 8.0 SO/9, 5.6 BB/9
    Meek is the Pirates 2nd option for their closer job, assuming they don't sign someone else. He is a young gun who just keeps getting better. At times he is unhittable, although he still does have some control issues to work out. As of right now, the 8th inning is all his and I'm expecting big things out of him. If Hanrahan goes down or struggles, I would be perfectly comfortable with Meek closing games out.
    2010 peak: 80 IP, 2.75 ERA, 9.5 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9
    2010 expectation: 80 IP, 3.60 ERA, 8.5 SO/9, 5.0 BB/9

  • Javier Lopez:
    2009 (AAA): 39.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 8.1 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9
    Lopez is the newest Pirate and will have a big impact on how the team fairs next season. He is a veteran left handed reliever who pitched awful in the short time he had with the Red Sox last year, but had a pretty solid stay in AAA Pawtucket. The Red Sox did not resign him and now he's a bucco. Lopez is a middle reliever with great control who can also strike out some batters. If he has the right attitude, he should be successful and help the Pirates on and off the field.
    2010 peak: 70 IP, 3.90 ERA, 8.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9
    2010 expectation: 50 IP, 4.35 ERA, 7.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9

  • Chris Jakubauskas:
    2009: 93.0 IP, 5.32 ERA, 4.5 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9
    Jakubauskas is another arm the Pirates added this offseason, and will almost surely be on the opening day roster. He started 8 games for the Mariners last year, but those days are behind him and he will be a middle relief option for the Pirates. His best pitch is his curveball, which is filthy. Other than that he is nothing too special. The strikeout rate speaks for itself, and while I think it will definitely improve this year, I don't see it being anywhere near that of Meek or Hanrahan. Jakubauskas is 31 years old, but still has some potential. He was a good signing for the Pirates, but I'm not expecting anything amazing out of him.
    2010 peak: 60 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9
    2010 expectation: 45 IP, 5.00 ERA, 5.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9

  • Steven Jackson:
    2009: 43.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 4.4 SO/9, 4.6 BB/9
    Jackson is a tough man to project. When he first came up to Pittsburgh last year he was very effective at getting batters out. He didn't blow anyone away or cause any huge excitement, but he posted good numbers. He got lit up in an August 6th game against the Diamondbacks, raising his ERA from 3.05 to 4.37. He pitched well the rest of the season and brought it back down into the low 3's. Jackson looks solid, but I seriously doubt he will be posting an ERA anywhere near 3.14 again.
    2010 peak: 50 IP, 3.25 ERA, 5.0 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9
    2010 expectation: 50 IP, 4.25 ERA, 3.0 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9

  • Kevin Hart:
    2009: 81.0 IP, 4.55 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 4.9 BB/9
    Hart was a starter for most of his 2009 season, making 14 starts and 4 relief appearances. He pitched well for the Cubs, but after his trade to the Pirates he did not do so well. He's another guy without much of anything stuff-wise. He is at his best when he locates the ball, which he struggled doing last year. He will be in competition with Daniel McCutchen in spring training for a starting job. If he doesn't get that job, there is no guarantees he will be in Pittsburgh for opening day. The team might still want to try him as a starter and leave him in AAA to get starts there. Since the Pirates only real long-relief option in the bullpen is Jakubauskas, who is unproven, I think the Pirates will be forced to have either Hart or Karstens on the 25 man roster for our starter's early-exit situations. The Pirates have already shown that they don't really care for Karstens, as they DFA'd him in November, so my guess is Hart will get the nod.
    2010 peak: 60 IP, 3.75 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9
    2010 expectation: 60 IP, 5.15 ERA, 4.5 SO/9, 4.7 BB/9

The other guys that will most seriously compete for big league jobs in spring training are Jeff Karstens, Ramon Aguero, Wil Ledezma. Another name that might come into your head is Jose Ascanio, who the Pirates acquired in the John Grabow trade last year. Ascanio pitched well for the Pirates in 2009, however suffered a torn labrum and had correctional surgery in October. That's a tough injury to come back from, and there is a good chance we won't see him in Pittsburgh at all in 2010.


So to recap, here's my prediction for what the 2010 Opening Day 25-man roster will look like.

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