Prior to the Pirates signing A.J. Burnett, everything was pointing to Kevin Correia and Brad Lincoln duking it out for the five spot in the rotation. Correia was coming off a season in which he had a good and very lucky first half of the season and made the all-star team, and Lincoln had spent most of the year in AAA. Lincoln had a bad spring and Correia had a good one. Neither of them had a chance to make the rotation until Burnett bunted a ball into his eye and was out for nearly a month. After that Jeff Karstens hit the shelf and Correia had to stay in the rotation. Correia was the guy that got the ball in Los Angeles and he pitched extremely well his first three starts before looking pretty bad in his last start. For the season Correia has allowed just six earned runs (seven total) in 22.1 innings, a 2.42 ERA. He has just nine strikeouts against eight walks. That's a good start to the season, but he's still Kevin Correia and that makes him a risk to be removed from the rotation at any time.
The guy threatening his job right now is none other than Brad Lincoln, who just won't seem to go away. Lincoln has been used in a long relief role and has done a phenomenal job. He's allowed one run in 10.1 innings and has 11 strikeouts against five walks.
In this offseason post, I compared the two based on 2011 statistics and 2011 pitch F/X. Here are those 2011 pitch f/x.
| Pitch Type | Veloc | H-Break | V-Break | Selection | Strike% |
| 4-Seam | 90.7 | -2.46 | 8.25 | 29.4% | 67.2% |
| 2-Seam | 90.6 | -6.79 | 6.58 | 17.1% | 66.3% |
| Curve | 78.0 | 7.23 | -5.12 | 12.1% | 53.9% |
| Change | 86.3 | -6.58 | 4.81 | 9.7% | 56.4% |
| Slider | 87.7 | 3.02 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 65.3% |
| Pitch Type | Veloc | H-Break | V-Break | Selection | Strike% |
| 4-Seam | 91.8 | -6.10 | 6.72 | 65.4% | 66.4% |
| 2-Seam | 90.3 | -10.00 | 4.63 | 2.0% | 46.7% |
| Curve | 81.6 | 8.25 | -5.74 | 18.2% | 67.2% |
| Change | 84.2 | -5.39 | -0.07 | 11.4% | 61.9% |
| Slider | 83.7 | -0.30 | -3.68 | 0.8% | 66.7% |
You can see from there that Lincoln has been stuff than Correia - no one is going to argue that. This season, Lincoln has thrown 20 four-seam fastballs that have averaged 93.9 miles per hour. That means Lincoln's velocity is up and his stuff is even better. He looks great on the mound.
So when is the time to put Lincoln in the rotation? Obviously, if it's not broken, don't fix it. Correia has done a good job in the rotation so far and has had the Pirates in every game he's pitched. He looked bad last start as he lost his control and was laboring the entire game, but it's tough to remove someone after one start in which he only gave up three runs. He's getting another start Friday, and it'll be interesting to see how he does there. Also, Karstens will be returning soon which will make this irrelevant because neither guy will be needed.
Personally, I would like to see Lincoln get any start that is not made by Burnett, McDonald, Bedard, Morton, or Karstens. Heck, I might even want him to start over Karstens at this point. He simply has better stuff and more upside. He was a first round pick and I want to see the Pirates get something from it rather than some good long relief after a starter has already blown the game.
Right now probably isn't the time to put Lincoln in the rotation, but down the road I would like to see the Pirates get him in there if there is a need again. It's a long season and it's tough to go too long without seeing a pitcher injury; there will almost surely be another hole in the rotation that can be filed by either Correia or Lincoln, and I'm hoping Lincoln is the guy that gets the ball when that happens.