National League Central Preview

by: Drew Brown

The National League Central has taken a major hit this offseason. The World Series champion, St. Louis Cardinals, will look to defend their title to the the only division with six teams in the league, but the NL Central might finish as one of the weakest in the leagues by the end of the 2012 campaign. In recent years we have seen divisions such as the American League Central and American League West be the worst in the league, but with the departures of Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, the NL Central might end up at the bottom this year. When you think about it though, this might be a good thing for the Pirates.

Chicago Cubs
I'll start out with the Chicago Cubs for my predictions. They finished with a 71-91 record last season and don't have a lot going for them, with the exception of Starlin Castro. Carlos Zambrano finally parted ways with them as he was traded to the Miami Marlins for the under achieving Chris Volstad and they lost Carlos Pena as well to the Tampa Bay Rays after having a mediocre 2011 season. Players such as Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Dempster, and Kerry Wood seem to be approaching the end of their careers and they have seen their ups and downs with closer, Carlos Marmol as well. They signed former Pirate Paul Maholm and traded Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart, a failed player in the Rockies organization. I definitely like the pickup they made making Theo Epstein their General Manager, but he will not be able to carry the team like a big name player could have. I see a very strong upside in players such as Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, and Anthony Rizzo, but this team will most likely perform worse than they did last year.
Offseason Grade: C
Projected Record: 68-94

Houston Astros
We'll head over to the Houston Astros now, the worst team in baseball. I don't have much to say about them other than the fact they did nothing to improve themselves this offseason. Honestly though, I can't blame them. This is their last season in the National League Central and chances are they will post the worst record in the Majors this season. They had some talented and solid players in Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, but they dealt them last July to the Phillies (Pence) and Braves (Bourn). One of my favorite players, Jason Bourgeois, a player who shows legitimate speed and can easily steal 50 bases, was traded to the Kansas City Royals this offseason also. I like the Jed Lowrie acqusition from Boston and am also a huge fan of Bud Norris as well, and think he will finish as a top 15 pitcher in the National League, but he won't be able to carry the team in anyway.
Offseason Grade: D
Projected Record: 53-109

St. Louis Cardinals
We'll make our way to the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals now. They will have Adam Wainwright back after missing the 2011 season, but may not have Chris Carpenter once the season starts. The chances of Lance Berkman posting numbers similar to the ones he did last season are pretty slim and the offense will be relying on him to carry them at times during the season. They added Carlos Beltran to play right field which is a move I like and will most likely see solid seasons out of David Freese, Jon Jay, and Jaime Garcia as well. They signed Yadier Molina to a big extension this winter and look for him to be a Redbird the rest of his career. Oh and don't forget, they lost the best player in the league of this past decade, Albert Pujols, to the Los Angeles Angels as he signed his record breaking, 10 year, 254 million dollar deal just a few months ago. I can see them making a push towards the National League Wild Card in late September, but have a feeling they might fall short of playing baseball in October just a year after winning the World Series.
Offseason Grade: B-
Projected Record: 88-74

Cincinnati Reds
I really like the chances of the Cincinnati Reds winning the National League Central this season. They picked up starting pitcher Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres this offseason and will have a very solid rotation, as they look for Johnny Cueto to pitch the way he did in the second half of last year. I think they have the best bullpen in the division with Sean Marshall, Nick Masset, Logan Ondrusek, and Jose Arredondo. They picked up closer Ryan Madson from the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason, which was a fantastic move, up until they found out two weeks ago he will be missing the 2012 season with Tommy John surgery. If he were to have pitched this year, Cincinnati would probably have a top five bullpen in the league and I look for Jay Bruce to post a huge season in right field. Not to mention their two other outfielders, Chris Heisey (LF) and Drew Stubbs (CF), show great pop and if Stubbs reduces the the strikeout rates and can scrap together a batting average above .280, he might be one of the better leadoff mans in the bigs. Shortstop Zack Cozart shows strong upside and I heard earlier today that they extended the 2010 NL MVP, Joey Votto, for another 10 years (225 million), which everyone in Cincinnati should he thrilled about, seeing that he's one of the best players in the league. It's up in the air right now whether or not Aroldis Chapman will be a starter, reliever, or closer. I can see them slipping him into the rotation and if the Cuban sensation can show some sign of control, and throw more strikes than he does balls, he might be untouchable in years to come.
Offseason Grade: A-
Projected Record: 93-69

Milwaukee Brewers
Lets take a look at the Central winners from a season ago, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew lost one of their best players, Prince Fielder, as he signed with Detroit on another huge contract. It's obviously going to be tough to overcome the departure of Prince and I don't think we'll see another "one-two punch" like we did with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun for years to come. Milwaukee's way of replacing Prince Fielder was signing former Pittsburgh Pirate and Chicago Cub, Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez was an RBI machine with Chicago, driving in over 100 runs five times. In my opinion though, I see him going downhill. He's approaching his mid 30's and will have a lot of pressure coming down on him in Milwaukee, as, like I said above, the Brewers look for him to replace Fielder's offensive production. When it comes to Prince Fielder's first base replacement, we'll get the chance of seeing Mat Gamel play. The 27-year old has five career homers and a poor .222 career batting average and the Brewers expect him to replace the guy who averaged 38 homeruns over six of his years. Moving away from Prince Fielder though, I can see Jose Veras really helping them out in the bullpen this season as he was acquired from Pittsburgh in return for Casey McGehee. Ryan Braun, the 2011 NL MVP, was caught up in the whole steroid and human growrth hormone controvery this offseason and sneaked his way out of a 50-game suspension and will most likely post fantastic numbers again, but numbers not good enough to find Milwaukee a spot in the postseason.
Offseason Grade: C
Projected Record: 85-77

Pittsburgh Pirates
And now it's time for your beloved Pittsburgh Pirates. You probably all know what happened so far this offseason but I'll still run through it. The Pirates had, in my opinion, the most productive offseason in the division picking up veterans like Clint Barmes, Casey McGehee, Erik Bedard, AJ Burnett, Rod Barajas, and Nate McLouth. All five of those players should help the team out in big ways. Barmes brings a fantastic glove to the shortstop position and brings more pop to the lineup than Ronny Cedeno did. Casey McGehee was a major run producer in Milwaukee a few years ago and will be a reliable backup incase Pedro Alvarez doesn't work. Bedard is a solid left handed starting pitcher pickup who starts Opening Day and was actually picked by Matthew Berry, to win the National League Cy Young. The chances of that happening are slim to none, but the chances of him being the a 13-15 game winner for the Bucs are pretty high. AJ Burnett was brought over from New York and he is another starting pitcher who will help out the rotation with the departures of Ross Ohlendorf and Paul Maholm. He injured his eye in spring training and will hopefully be back in April for the Pirates. Rod Barajas is a veteran catcher who brings solid pop to the lineup and can call a pretty good game behind the dish. And everyone knows about Nate McLouth, the 2008 Pirates all star. He is a good backup for Andrew McCutchen, Alex Presley, and Jose Tabata and will help out coming off the bench. Bottom line though, this team has taken a big step forward. If Pedro Alvarez can produce and show us the Pedro we thought we had back in 2010, the Pirates might end up with their first winning season in twenty years. If not though, the Pirates might just slap another year on to the record setting number for consecutive losing seasons.
Offseason Grade: A
Projected Record: 79-83

Those are my predicted records and looks on each National League Centrals teams offseason. The Pirates obviously had trouble with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder over the years, and with them heading out to the American League, it should definitely help the Pirates chances of hitting that .500 win mark, which we haven't seen in over 19 years.