The Pirates Trade Problem

Sick of reading about the Pirates and the trade deadline? ... Yeah, me either.

I've been thinking a lot about this today and I think I'm slowly realizing that things aren't looking great for the Pirates at the deadline.

I say that because of the fact that the Pirates will under no circumstances trade Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia, Josh Bell, or Starling Marte - nor should they. I'm guessing that Alen Hanson has worked himself into that group as well, especially with the lack of middle infield depth in the system.

The only other Pirates prospects that have names that carry much weight are Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, Robbie Grossman, Tony Sanchez, and Alex Dickerson. Honestly, I'm just not sure that those names will bring back much of a player. The fact is that the Pirates have a top heavy farm system. After the top guys, there really isn't that much there. Sure, you can do the value calculations and all that jazz and figure that those names would logically bring back a good player. Tim Williams did exactly that with a post about Headley, saying that the Pirates could match Headley's value with a Robbie Grossman plus a lesser pitching prospect package.

Now that's all fine with me, but the fact is that these players don't go for "fair value" at the deadline, especially this year when there's one more contender in each league. Competition drives up prices, that's economics right? In terms of Headley, I really don't think that the kind of package that the post above suggests would be enough to get him. That goes with a number of other bats on the market right now (you can check my trade deadline target tracker here).

A deal I see the Pirates making at the end of the month has to be one that's similar to the Derrek Lee trade last year. It's going to have to be a non-star player in the last year of a contract on a non contending team. That way the Pirates can get him just by picking up some salary and throwing the other team a couple lower end prospects.

With the system as it is and the Pirates not willing to trade top prospects, this is simply how it has to be. Small market teams aren't in a position to trade prospects for rentals anyway. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays. You can't find a trade that they made at the deadline that had them dealing prospects, they realize that they need their prospects to come up and fill in when they inevitable lose major leagues because they can't afford to keep them. That's the sad world the Pirates are living in.

The hope is that the Pirates are good enough at the end of the month to be okay by just getting a marginal upgrade in the outfield or at first base. I'll say it, well write it, again. They can't afford to give up their top prospects - the system isn't deep enough and the Pirates don't have the finances to make up for losing prospects for nothing (if they make the playoffs then it might very well be worth it, but that's a big risk to take).

It seems to me like this team doesn't have much of a chance of getting the Chase Headley type players. There's going to be a bunch of competition for offense at the deadline, and the teams that land these players are going to overpay. The Pirates will not overpay, you can count on that. If the Pirates make a playoff run in 2012, it's going to be mainly with what you're seeing right now.