As you all know, there is an extra wild card spot in this year's playoffs. That's going to help the Pirates out a lot. I looked at the standings for the last five years and found the teams that would have been awarded the second wild card spot (note, I used the 5 best records and didn't consider divisions. In 2008 and 2007 a team that was not top 5 in wins made the playoffs just because they won their division. I figured it would be better to ignore that for this kind of study):
| Year | Team | W | L | % |
| 2011 | Braves | 89 | 73 | .549 |
| 2010 | Padres | 90 | 72 | .556 |
| 2009 | Giants | 88 | 74 | .543 |
| 2008 | Cardinals | 86 | 76 | .531 |
| 2007 | Cubs | 85 | 77 | .525 |
The average of those win totals is 88. That suggests that the Pirates need to win 88 games this year to get the fifth and final playoff spot.
Another way of figuring it out is by looking at the standings of the current year. Right now the Nationals, Pirates, Dodgers, Reds, and Braves are playoff teams. If they finish the year with the same win percentages they have now, this is how your National League playoff teams will stack up:
| Year | Team | W | L | % |
| 2011 | Nationals | 96 | 66 | .590 |
| 2010 | Pirates | 92 | 70 | .565 |
| 2009 | Dodgers | 87 | 75 | .540 |
| 2008 | Reds | 90 | 72 | .553 |
| 2007 | Braves | 88 | 74 | .541 |
So looking at this way, the Pirates need to target a .541 winning percentage to get the fifth spot. That equates to the same 88 wins that we found before.
. Obviously this isn't a perfect way to do it, and there's no way to predict the future. However, 88 looks like a pretty good number. The Pirates would have to go 40-37 in the second half to reach 88 wins. Considering 30 of their final 77 games remaining are against the Astros, Cubs, and Brewers, you've gotta feel pretty decent about this team's chances.
At the very least this team should win 82 games to finally register a winning season. That would require a 34-43 second half. You'd like to think that's a 34 win second half is basically in the bag. However, it's not, and that's why you play the games.
Should be a fun final 77 games. Buckle up.