It Still All Comes Down to Alvarez

I don't know how many articles were written last offseason about Pedro Alvarez being the key to the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates. If he performed well, this team had a chance, if he repeated 2011, this team was a lock to have their 20th straight losing season.

We're exactly halfway through the 2012 season, and my thinking on this matter hasn't changed a bit. To this point in the season, Alvarez has been pretty good. He's hitting .237/.313/481 with 15 homers and 48 RBI. The average isn't good, but he's helped the team with a couple of hot streaks in which they've won a bunch of games.

Right now, Alvarez is in one of those hot streaks - and there is reason to believe that it actually isn't just a streak. He looks better and more comfortable at the plate now than he ever has, although we were saying the same thing earlier in the year before he went on his second huge streak of incompetence at the plate. In his last 17 games, he's hitting .393/.493/.839 with seven homers and four doubles. He's been one of the best hitters in the league in that time, although there's always the possibility that it can change in the span of a few games.

The trade deadline is looming and the Pirates are being talked about as big time buyers. Tim Williams has this post out this morning that talks about if the Pirates need to be buyers. My answer to that is - it depends on what Alvarez does for the rest of this month.

With Pedro hitting as well as he has been lately, and the assumed eventual call up of Starling Marte, this offense could actually be good enough to make a playoff push without adding another bat. That shouldn't be shocking, it's what we were saying here all offseason. You know Andrew McCutchen is going to produce offensively, and if you can add a big time power hitter in Alvarez behind him consistently, you're going to score runs. The pitching has been great and there are guys in AAA ready to help out if things go south, so you don't need five runs a game from the offense. They can give you what you need. With Alvarez going, the Pirates don't need to go out and hurt their future adding a player to help out at the end of this year.

On the flip side, if Alvarez shows that he's still a streaky player that can go on a month span of doing nothing, then yeah, the Pirates need help - big time. In fact, without Alvarez I'm not sure they could compete regardless of who they add at the deadline. He's that important.

The Pirates are 29-13 when Alvarez gets a hit. Obviously that's not a tell all statistic, but it says something, doesn't it? McCutchen is having an MVP year offensively, but without Alvarez it's simply not enough. This guy is the key to it all, and without him they can't compete for anything.

There's a very good chance the Pirates will make a pretty big move at the trade deadline, there's no reason for this team not to be all-in in terms of competing in 2012. However, it's still important for small market teams to do whatever they can to hold on to their prospects. The Pirates simply aren't in a financial situation where they can warrant trading two to three of their top ten prospects. They might be forced to do that this year, and nobody will complain about it. However, if they fail to make the playoffs with a big trade, they're setting themselves back a bit down the road.

With Alvarez hitting as well as he is now, this team looks like it can compete without making a big time trade. They can hold on to their future and still have a shot at doing something this year. That's the ideal situation. The Pirates are probably better off making a move at the deadline, because if they don't make the playoffs after not doing everything they can to better the team right now, that's going to cause some serious commotion amongst fans. My point is that it still all comes down to Pedro. If he keeps up what he's doing now, the Pirates are a playoff contender regardless of if they make a trade or not. If Pedro goes back to 2011 form, it really doesn't matter what they do at the deadline, they don't have much of a chance regardless.