by Brandon Posa
With Opening Day 2014 less than three days away, now may be the most appropriate time to discuss any predictions for the upcoming season. Coming off of a wildly-spectacular and memorable Wild Card game, and a fight to the finish in the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a team on the rise fueled by youth, energy, and the fire to take their game to the next level. 2013 was an incredibly special season that we all won’t soon forget.
I think it’s extremely funny and strange when you hear both the “professionals” and the most-casual of fans complain about the Pirates lack of doing anything during this past offseason. They let an aging AJ Burnett walk without a qualifying offer to the Phillies, and made no true attempts to reel back in
Marlon Byrd and
Justin Morneau. Meanwhile, they signed reclamation-project
Edinson Volquez to a $5 million, one-year contract, they gave
Charlie Morton an extension, and re-signed
Clint Barmes to become the backup to shortstop
Jordy Mercer. And, just this past week, they signed budding-star
Starling Marte to a contract extension that could keep him in a Pirates uniform until 2021. At the beginning of Spring Training, there were clear holes not only at first base, but also right field and in their rotation.
The counter-argument I would make first is that the Pirates weren’t
inactive. They were very active by insuring that they would not throw away their future for a few blocks and pieces to keep that mystical “window” wide open for a pennant run in 2014. Many fans seem to forget that Byrd and Morneau literally only played in a combined 55 regular season games for the Pirates. What the says to me is that right field and first base were clearly issues for 5 (FIVE) months last season before the Pirates truly were able to do anything about it, and they not only were competitive during that entire time between April-August, but also held the top spot in the division a number of times as well. Why all of a sudden is it such a bad thing that the Pirates didn’t throw a ton of money at any of the free agent RF or 1B this winter, or trade the farm to get a quick fix?
That answer is very easy to realize if you take a look at what the Pirates have on their hands. Looking into the future is a very difficult, and sometimes irresponsible, thing to do in any sport, but if we look at what the Pirates have on their hands potentially in, let’s say, 2016, it may be easier to understand why they didn’t go sign
James Loney for $100 million (sarcasm). Using my better judgment, this is what I believe the majority of the Pirates roster could look like in 2016, and it is very exciting (known/estimated salaries for 2016 will be in parentheses):
1.
Andrew McCutchen, CF ($13 million): Cutch is signed through 2017 with an option for 2018. McCutchen may be willing to renegotiate with the Bucs by 2016 to add on a few more years to the deal. He’ll still be the Bucs top position player as the face of the franchise and a superstar who could add another MVP to his collection.
2.
Starling Marte, LF ($3 million) : Marte, as I mentioned before, just signed a contract extension that could theoretically keep him in Pittsburgh until his age 33 season. He is 1/3 of what could become the best outfield in baseball for the rest of the decade. As long as he can stay healthy, Marte can still become a .300 hitter if he learns to control his free-swinging ways.
3.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Final Arbitration Year~$10 million) : Pedro has the most power anywhere in the Pirates system, which poses a problem because 2016 will be the final year of his contract with the Bucs. Alvarez is a well-documented client of agent Scott Boras, so it is highly unlikely that he signs an extension with the Pirates before the end of the 2016 season. He will essentially be playing for his first big pay-day, so Pedro could hopefully have the season of his lifetime, possibly producing 40+ homeruns for the Bucs. In a twist, the Pirates could also take a page out of the Tampa Bay Rays’ playbook and place Pedro on the trading block before the 2016 season if they feel they could either have an internal replacement ready (unlikely) or they can find someone on the free agent market that winter; this would allow the Bucs to flip Pedro for some top prospects to re-stock the system due to many graduations over the next two seasons.
4.
Neil Walker, 2B (Final Arbitration Year~$6 million) : Neil is a quality major-league second baseman that has grown into the role after being drafted as a catcher by the Bucs in 2004. Walker and the Pirates have been rumored to have had contract extension discussions in the past, but nothing has arisen as of yet. I could see the Bucs still making an effort to retain Walker, but he may find himself without a starting job on the Bucs depending on what position the Bucs place top prospect
Alen Hanson when he is ready to come up; Walker, then, will be playing for a brand new contract as well.
5.
Gregory Polanco, RF (League Minimum~$550,000) : If everything goes well, Polanco’s 2016 season could be a true breakout after an estimated-1 ½ years of big league experience by then. He will complete the Bucs exiting trio of outfielders and provide power, defense, and great base-running skills for years to come. The Pirates may be wise to seek a
Wil Myers or
Evan Longoria-type deal with Polanco early on to not only give themselves cost certainty through his arbitration years, but also ensuring that Polanco doesn’t go anywhere during his prime years.
6.
Tony Sanchez, C (League Minimum~$550,000) : It’s hard to imagine the Bucs being able to resign
Russell Martin after the 2014 season, and with Sanchez ready to assume the starting role, it wouldn’t make much sense, either. Tony will provide reliable pitch-framing skills and defense, as well as an average bat, for the Bucs.
7.
Travis Snider, OF (Final Arbitration Year~$2.5 million) : The Pirates will have a difficult decision to make in 2014, because they will have more major league outfielders than there are spots on the team. By 2016, I believe that they will have successfully trade
Jose Tabata and his $4.5 million salary to a team that could give him a chance to reach his potential. I’m predicting Snider to have a good year for the Bucs in 2014, so it would be easy to see them retaining Snider as their fourth outfielder for the next three seasons.
8.
Alen Hanson, SS/2B (League Minimum~$550,000) : If Hanson progresses nicely in AA and AAA in 2014-2015, it is easy to see him as a September call-up in 2015 and stealing a starting spot in 2016. It will be interesting to see if the Bucs finally decide that is arm will not play well-enough at shortstop and that he would become the eventual successor to Walker, or if he could successfully snag the shortstop position from this guy:
9.
Jordy Mercer, SS (First Arbitration Year~$2 million) : Jordy looks to be the Bucs starting shortstop over the next couple of seasons, but if Alen Hanson looks ready to earn a big league spot, Spring Training 2016 could have an exciting position battle between he and Mercer. If Hanson does make the team, it could be easy to see a platoon-type situation with the two.
10.
Gerrit Cole, SP (League Minimum~$550,000) : Cole is the future ace of the Pirates’ staff, bar none. He’s a workhorse that reaches 100 MPH and can easily throw over 200+ innings per year. He’ll be leading the way of an exciting, young rotation that could become one of the best in the league for a number of years.
11.
Jameson Taillon, SP (League Minimum~$550,000) : Taillon can easily find himself slotted behind Cole in the starting rotation, barring any unforeseen time lost or poor results. Cole and Taillon will be the Pirates one-two punch that they have lacked for a long, long time.
12.
Tyler Glasnow, SP (League Minimum~$550,000) : Glasnow is a top prospect that would be a number one prospect for many of the other 29 teams in the league. He projects to become another quality pitcher for the Pirates, so long as he is able to work on his command in 2014-2015.
13.
Charlie Morton, SP ($8 million) : Charlie will still be bringing the electric stuff to PNC Park in 2016, and hopefully will be pitching like a top-2 pitcher for the Bucs. He can provide veteran leadership for the Bucs young hurlers, and become what AJ Burnett essentially had been for the Bucs in 2012-13.
14.
Tony Watson, RP (Second Arbitration Year~$3 million) : Watson has grown in his time with the Pirates, and he will continue to become a very important part of the backend of the bullpen as a menacing lefty.
15.
Mark Melancon, RP (Final Arbitration Year~$6.5+ million) : Mark the Shark will be in his final year of his contract in 2016, and could force the Pirates to pay a steep amount for their closer/setup man. If Melancon avoids injury and pitches at the level he did in 2013, he will be the most critical piece of the Shark Tank.
16.
Justin Wilson, RP (First Arbitration Year~$2 million) : Wilson was another critical piece of the Shark Tank in 2013, and he figures to remain a fixture in the backend for his duration as a Pirate. Wilson has the potential to be stretched out as a starter, but that seems unlikely with the plethora of starters the Bucs have at their disposal. He could eventually become the setup man to Melancon.
17.
Stolmy Pimentel, RP (League Minimum~$550,000) : I believe Pimentel can reach the potential the Pirates believe he has, and I believe he could reach it in 2014. He is another big arm that can reach the upper 90’s, so if he is able to control and work on his command, the Pirates could have an even nastier Shark Tank in 2016.
Based on my opinions and assumptions, this could be the collection of players that comprises 17/25 spots on the Pirates Opening Day 2016 roster, with a total estimated payroll of just under $60 million. Obviously, my arbitration estimates could be either under- or over-stated, but I think those are safe estimates based off of their projected performances and similar deals. Now, obviously I can’t project the future. Projections for the current season, let alone two years down the road, are difficult to make. None of my above list is guaranteed to happen due to injuries, trades, amongst other factors. But that is a scary Pirates team based off of potential alone. And, if 68% of the roster is comprised based off of just $60 million, it’s safe to say the Bucs will have a lot of extra cash to put towards a free agent first baseman, or by locking up their top young players to long-term deals, just as they have with McCutchen and Marte. The point of all of this is that it’s not ever smart for any team, not just a small-market team, to seemingly throw all of their money at one player for one season, when they could easily take that money and apply it over multiple young prospects that can easily fill that position of need.
For the record, I had wanted
Andrew Lambo to begin the season as part of the first base platoon with
Gaby Sanchez, but he will now begin the year with AAA Indy.
Travis Ishikawa, although far from confirmed, will likely be the second half of the platoon, but who knows for how long. If Lambo tears up AAA pitching and Ishikawa is not producing for the Bucs, there will definitely be a switch for the two. It’s always safer to produce your own talent from within, rather than by overpaying in free agency, and the Pirates, while being “inactive” or “unfair” this offseason by not spending on a high-priced free agent, essentially stayed the course by ensuring that the Pirates have a competitive team in 2014, 2015, and beyond.
Oh yeah, the predictions. My gut tells me that it will be difficult to reach 94 wins again this season, but I certainly do not feel that the Pirates regressed enough to fall under .500. I believe the Pirates will fight for the Reds again for both second place in the division and a Wild Card spot, with the Pirates pulling ahead of the Reds again in September en route to an 88-win campaign and a second consecutive spot in the National League Wild Card game. As for brief player projections: Cutch will again produce an MVP-caliber season with the bat and glove, Marte will improve on his 2013 statistics and push for a .300 batting average, Pedro will knock on the door of 40 home runs, Polanco will be up in late-June and make a run for the NL Rookie of the Year award, Gerrit Cole will pitch to a tune of 17 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA, the Shark Tank will again be a top-five bullpen, and the remaining cast of Bucs I didn’t name will all contribute to another highly-exciting season for Pittsburgh.
