Prospect Profile - Gerrit Cole

Name: Gerrit Cole Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: September 8, 1990 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 220 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: UCLA Acquired: 2011 Draft, 1st Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: One of the biggest keys to the Pirates future is Gerrit Cole. The 21-year old has an upper 90's four-seam fastball, a lower to middle 90's two-seam fastball, a long with plus pitches in the slider and change up. Cole had some control issues in his last season as an amateur, which led him to a widely unimpressive 3.28 ERA. If Cole can improve his control and become a mature pitcher, he has the stuff to be a Cy Young contender some day. Chances are he starts the year in Bradenton and works his way up through the year. He could reach AA by season's end, but I don't expect anything higher than that. Starting 2013 in AAA and then making his big league debut mid-season sounds reasonable to me, but that could be only if everything goes right.

Bill James 2012 Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2012 Bill James projections have been released on fangraphs.com, so I decided to pull all the Pirates projections together and post it on here. First of all, here's a quick explanation of the Bill James projection system:


Now here are the stats:

Crosby

... still not funny

Pirates on verge of signing Clint Barmes

The Pirates appear to have their 2012 shortstop signed. That shortstop is Clint Barmes, who played for the Houston Astros last year.

Barmes is a very good defensive shortstop with an unimpressive bat. He isn't a huge liability on offense, and his career numbers are better than Ronny Cedeno's.

The deal is reportedly worth $11 million for two years, which is pretty high. There is a ton of argument going on about this one, and I'm not really sure where I stand.

Basically, the Pirates are probably overpaying here. They could have brought Cedeno back for a year at $3 million and saved money, however they chose to pay more for Barmes, who is better, but not easily much better.

At the end of the day, the Pirates had some money to spend and it's good to see them get a capable big league shortstop early in the offseason and not have to risk spending the entire year with Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco starting.

We'll have more on the move later on.

Pirates are leading candidate to get Clint Barmes

Check this out...


Do you believe in miracles?

Contentment, Perspective, and Adam LaRoche

The Pirates have had some serious issues getting production out of their first basemen in recent years. Garrett Jones, Jeff Clement, Steve Pearce, and Lyle Overbay all tried their hand and did very little to help the team win before the Pirates made a desperation trade to get Derrek Lee, who ended up playing incredibly well in an irrelevant period of two months for the Pirates.

Now, Kevin Creagh at Pirates Prospects has posted something that would make a lot of Pirate fans cringe, the possibility of the Pirates trading for Adam LaRoche.

Yes, Adam LaRoche. The same Adam LaRoche that was easily the least likable Pirate for a span of about two years. From his slow starts to his largely cavalier attitude, LaRoche developed quite a negative reputation.

However, let's not let emotions get in the way of logic and perspective. Adam LaRoche was the best first baseman the Pirates have had (excluding Lee) in a long time.

The Pirates are a pitiful franchise. If I cut one of my fingers off for everything they have done right in the last twenty years, I would still be typing this post conventionally without much trouble. So let's get some perspective and stop finding stupid reasons to dislike players.

Did Adam LaRoche look like his mother had just been killed every time he stepped on the field? Yes. Did Adam LaRoche hit 58 home runs with a .270+ batting average in less than 3 years with the Pirates? Yes. Has anyone else done anything resembling that in recent memory? No.

It's the same way with players like Steve Pearce and Chase d'Arnaud, although neither of them have done anything with the Pirates to make you really like them. Pearce was a good hitter against left-handed pitchers in his career, and he was certainly a benefit to the team when healthy, but people just decide to dislike him because he looks and talks like a mindless jerk. d'Arnaud is never going to get a fair shake because he looks like a high school jock that consistently sleeps with your girlfriend and sister without your permission.

I'm not saying bring Adam LaRoche back, because the price is probably too high and that is important. I'm also not saying that we should completely shut off that possibility. If you want logical perspective, read the post I linked to above. But can we please start realizing what team I am writing about here and the history of that team. If someone can hit the ball over the fence 20+ times a year and hits higher than .250, I want him on the team regardless of what he looks or acts like.

Vote @RTJR For A $10K Scholarship, Please

One of your favorite Pirates personalities is a finalist for a $10,000 scholarship, and he needs all the help he can get to bring home that cheese.

His name is Brian McElhinny of Raise The Jolly Roger. You may know him by his twitter handle of @RTJR. He's a Pittsburgh local that attends the University of Virginia and he's a real guy's guy.

Anyways, you can vote by clicking the below link and voting for "Brian McElhinny" (notice, he's also a member of the McEffect club). Tell your friends, tell your family, vote on multiple computers, do whatever you can.

CLICK HERE TO VOTE

Alex Presley's Trade Value via Pirates Prospects

More great stuff from Pirates Prospects in the past few days, including an article about the trade value of Alex Presley. This is an interesting topic because of the traffic jam developing in the Pirates outfield. Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Presley, Gorkys Hernandez, Starling Marte, and Robbie Grossman all could be competing for playing time in the next 2-3 years, and it seems like the Pirates will be best off trading off some of these guys to fill other holes. Presley seems like the best option to trade in my eyes, just because we simply cannot trade McCutchen or Tabata (which is talked about in the article below), and the rest of that group is unproven with little trade value. I don't think the Pirates should make a move before the 2012 season, just because Presley's value is relatively low right now (in my eyes at least) because of the small sample size. Also, if the Pirates part with him, they're going to have a pretty weak right field again in 2012, which killed us last year. Anyways, read the article below, Tim knows better than I do.

Ramon Santiago vs. Clint Barmes

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a huge hole at the shortstop position as we head into the depth of the offseason. There are a handful of legitimate options to fill the void left by Ronny Cedeno's departure, however I feel pretty strongly that that void will be filled by one of two players.

For whatever reason (and I have no real legitimate one), I have this feeling that the Pirates are going to sign Ramon Santiago. Ever since I saw his name on the free agent list after the Pirates didn't pick up Cedeno's option, he stuck out to me. There is no reason for that, and he's certainly not my first choice, but he is inevitably my prediction for who the Pirates sign. That's weird for me to say, because I hate baseless sports predictions more than anything, but hey, sometimes you've just gotta go with it.

Just last week, MLB Trade Rumors broke the news that the Pirates were "interested" in Santiago, which didn't come as a surprise to anybody, he seems to fit the exact mold of the type of free agent the Pirates usually pursue.

Here's Santiago's career statistics, please try to contain your enthusiasm.


He doesn't wow you at the plate by any means, and Pirate fans are all too used to that from the middle infield. However, Santiago does bring the glove with a 3.6 career UZR/150 rating (for you saberphobics out there - that's pretty strong). The big issue with Santiago is that he has never played anything close to a full season at shortstop in his career. In 2010, he played 85 games as a shorstop, and that's the highest number he has achieved in his career. That said, the flexibility would be nice, he plays a solid second and third base too.

Santiago made $1.35 million last year, so the Pirates could get him at a pretty good price. He isn't going to the best shortstop in the division, he might not even be any better than Cedeno was last year, but in my eyes he would be a serviceable shortstop for 2012 while we see what we have in Chase d'Arnaud.

The other player I think the Pirates will be chasing pretty aggressively is Clint Barmes. Here are his stats:


The bat that Barmes has beats Santiago's because of the additional power he has. In 2009, he hit 23 home runs and slugged .440, which is a very good season for a shortstop who plays very good defense (7.2 UZR/150 in his career, much better than Santiago and Cedeno). Hearing all that is pretty encouraging. It's a no-brainer that Barmes is the best option the Pirates can reasonably expect to have a chance at signing. Barmes made near $4 million last year, so the Pirates would have to pay more to get him, but it's not like the team doesn't have money to spend filling their gaps this offseason.

Both of these shortstops are 32 years old, so neither is an answer for the future. Barmes seems like a very solid option and would indefinitely be an upgrade from Cedeno, the question is whether the Pirates can get him. The Pirates aren't the only team looking for help at the shortstop position. The Astros have interest in bringing Barmes back, then the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies all have serious interest in him. It never seems to work out favorably for the Pirates when a player they are pursuing is being considered by multiple other teams.

It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility to think that the Pirates could sign Barmes, they have enough money to compete with any other team financially for a mid-tier player like Barmes, but the 19-year losing streak certainly doesn't help their case.

Obviously these aren't the only two options, and the Pirates could easily end up signing someone else to play shortstop for them in 2012 (or they could sign no one and just let d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco duke it out, which would be ugly). However, I think both of these players would be upgrades from Cedeno and are definitely financially considerable. The Pirates really confused me to when they didn't pick up Cedeno's option, and if they don't sign one of these two guys I am going to be even more lost.

Steelers Getting Great Play From Receivers

Over the last few years it has seemed like the Steelers were going to develop a pretty big weakness at the wide receiver position. Hines Ward was clearly slowing down, the team parted ways with a rising Santonio Holmes, and a large amount of their hope was in a group of young, unproven receivers that were not very highly touted coming out of college.

However, it seems that this year the receiving core has actually been more of a strong point for the Steelers than anything.

It's not a big surprise to that many people that Mike Wallace has broken out the last two years, but the numbers he has put up this year have been very, very strong. In fact, when you look at the advanced statistics, he's one of the best in the entire league.

Wallace has a 1.34 WPA (win probability added) this year, which is 7th highest in the league. Wes Welker leads everybody with a 2.01 WPA. Another statistic called EPA/P (expected points added per pay) sheds more light on how good Wallace has been. He has added 0.70 points to this team per play, that's the 4th highest number in the league. The three receivers in front of him all play for the Green Bay Packers (James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Greg Jennings). Wallace also has the 5th highest success rate in the league at 70%. Those stats are a lot to handle for people who haven't heard of them before, so go to advancednflstats.com to read up on them.

Wallace's counterpart, Antonio Brown has also had a very, very nice season. His WPA is 12th in the league at 1.03. He is 22nd in the league with 0.36 EPA/P and has a 51.2% success rate. Nobody is talking about Brown being a top-10 receiver, and you'd have to dig a little to find someone who thinks he's even top 25 or so, but he has done very well with the opportunity he has had.

These statistics are all coming from two guys that were picked outside of the 2nd round. Wallace was a 3rd-round pick and Brown went in the 6th-round. With Wallace's speed, it was obvious that he could turn into a legitimate NFL receiver, but Brown kind of came from nowhere.

The Steelers did a nice job grabbing these two guys in the draft and they have benefited big time from their performances this year. If they continue to get better with experience, the Steelers will not have to worry about their receiving core for a long time.

Steelers Advanced Statistics November 13

The Steelers got a big win over the Bengals this weekend. Here's the advanced statistics from the victory:

Pirates Sign Rod Barajas

The Pirates have kicked off their offseason earlier than most would have expected by signing free agent catcher Rod Barajas. That will make Barajas the Opening Day and every day (as every-day as a player of his age and position can be) catcher for 2012.

Barajas is 36 years old and has been in the league since 1999. He spent 5 years with the Diamondbacks, 3 years with the Rangers, a year with the Phililes, two years with the Blue Jays, a half year with the Mets, and a year and a half with the Dodgers.

Most recently, Barajas hit .230/.287/.430 in 2011 with the Dodgers. He played just 98 games last year but managed to hit 16 home runs. He has had 6 seasons with 15 or more home runs, and should help this offense significantly when you look at the bat's that he will be replacing (Michael McKenry, Jason Jaramillo).

Defensively, Barajas has been a pretty good catcher. He has never been fantastic, but he will certainly get the job done. You really did not know what to expect defensively from McKenry, and Jaramillo has never been the greatest, so I do not consider this a downgrade on that side of the ball.

It is pretty surprising that the Pirates have made a move already, and there is no reason to be really excited about this one, but the fact is that it makes us a better baseball team for the 2012 season. Having McKenry and Jaramillo as the catchers would have been incredibly ugly, and it's good to see that management wasn't going to let that be the only options.

I'll have much more about Barajas up later, since that's really the only thing to talk about in Bucco world right now.

Matty Alou Career Highlights via The Hardball Times

The guys over at Hardball Times wrote up a little article honoring Matty Alou, who passed away yesterday. The article covers his career chronologically, and talks a lot about what he did in his time with the Pirates. Check it out.

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Ronny Cedeno vs. Free Agent Shortstops

I have been talking a lot about Ronny Cedeno lately, and how much I disagree with the Pirates choice to not pick up his $3 million option. Yesterday, I compared Cedeno to the Pirates other options, Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco. Today, I want to look at the free agent options and see how they match up with Cedeno.

For the sake of getting too in depth, I am using two statistics for this argument. I'm using Weighted On Base Average (wOBA - explained here) for the offensive side, and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR/150 - explained here) for the defensive side. Let's get to it.

First, here's the list of the available free agent shortstops, sorted alphabetically:

Clint Barmes, Yuniesky Betancourt, Orlando Cabrera, Jamey Carroll, Ronny Cedeno, Craig Counsell, Rafael Furcal, Alex Gonzalez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Cesar Izturis, John McDonald, Nick Punto, Edgar Renteria, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Ramon Santiago, Jack Wilson

Let's look at the offensive numbers first. Here are the players and their 2011 wOBA followed by their career wOBA, in order.

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2011 wOBA:

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Career wOBA:

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Obviously, Reyes is the best of the bunch, he is one of the game's best players, and just because of that fact; the Pirates have no chance at signing him, so let's let that fantasy die.

You can see Cedeno doesn't compare too well on the offensive side of the ball. All but five of the available free agents had better seasons with the bat than Ronny in 2011. Now let's look at defense:

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2011 UZR/150:

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Career UZR/150:

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Cedeno compares much more favorably with the glove. That is partly thanks to the fact that Cedeno played much better defense in 2011 than he had on average in his career, and there is no way to know if that will happen again in 2012 or he will regress (although the more likely option is probably the latter). However, Cedeno is one of the better defensive free agent shortstops.

There were three players that were better in both categories than Ronny in 2011: Hairston Jr., Barmes, and Santiago. Here are the ages and 2010 salaries of those three players:

Jerry Hairston Jr. (35) - $2.0M
Clint Barmes (32) - $3.925M
Ramon Santiago (32) - $1.35M

For all three players, the Pirates would have to pay more (if not much more) than the above numbers to get them to come to Pittsburgh. Considering the fact that they had the chance to give a 28 year old Cedeno 3 million to stay, I'm guessing they aren't going to be too interested in giving an older player more money than that.

Now obviously, those three players are not the only ones that would be an upgrade from Cedeno. As an offensive-minded guy, here's a rough list of the players I would take over Cedeno from this year's free agent pool:

Reyes, Punto, Rollins, Hairston Jr., Carroll, Barmes, Santiago, Furcal, Gonzalez.

Again, you can scratch off Reyes and Rollins right away, the Pirates do not have a prayer of getting either of them. The only players from that list that the Pirates could get cheaper than Cedeno would probably be Carroll and Santiago. I wouldn't rule the Pirates completely out of the bidding war for anybody besides Reyes and Rollins, but it certainly will not be easy.

Bottom line is, there is a chance here to upgrade at the position for 2012 and still save money (or not lose too much of it), but I still don't understand the risk of downgrading. Cedeno is comparable to any player the Pirates have a chance at getting, he is younger than most of them, and they had the guarantee of getting him had they just forked the $3 million. This could turn out positively if the Pirates can sign Santiago (who I think is the best choice) or one of the other above players, but until we do that, I say it was a poor decision to let Cedeno go.