Cardinals vs. Pirates, Liveblog

Offense & Starting Pitching Stats From Down The Stretch

All year I have been keeping a spreadsheet that takes a look at the offensive production along with the starting pitching production. For the first half of the year, the starting pitching looked very, very good while the offense trailed behind. Now both are looking pretty bad.

The Pirates have certainly fallen a long way since late July when they were in first place. Let's take a look at the ugliness that has been the last 43 games for our Pirates. The image is small, so click on it for a bigger view.


In these last 43 games, the Pirates have 12 wins and 31 losses. They have won consecutive games just twice, and have not accumulated so much as a 3-game winning streak.

The ERA for the starting pitchers is 5.33, although that includes starts from guys that aren't big league pitchers like Brian Burres, Aaron Thompson, Brad Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Locke. Now Thompson did a great job in his 4.1 innings, Locke only gave up 3 runs in his 5 innings, and Lincoln has done a good job for the most part. Burres had a good start and a bad one, and Ohlendorf has been pretty miserable in all his outings.

The team ERA for the first half was 3.68, which was pretty much the sole reason that the team was in the race. It has bloated quite a bit and the offense has not shown the improvement we expected, which has caused the Pirates to be well, the Pirates, once again.

The Pirates are scoring just 3.6 runs per game in this stretch of 43 games while the starters alone are allowing 3.3 (when you add the bullpen in the difference is expanded). Strikeouts have also been hard to come by as the starters are striking out just 3.5 batters per outing (without 2nd Half MVP James McDonald, that number would be significantly smaller).

Looking at the season as a whole, here are the Pirates numbers:

Batting:
BA: .243
H/G: 8.1
R/G: 3.7
K/G: 8.0
BB/G: 3.0

Starters:
IP/G: 5.8
H/G: 6.2
R/G: 2.9
ER/G: 2.6
BB/G: 1.9
K/G: 3.6
HR/G: 0.6
ERA: 4.08

Overall I will take the most of the starting pitchers numbers. If this team had an average offense, those pitching numbers would be good enough to be flirting with .500 and possibly with some luck be somewhat competitive in the division.

The hitting has been terrible all year and things don't look that much better for next year either. Andrew McCutchen should be a force once again and continue to get better, and I'm starting to become pretty confident that Jose Tabata will be a legitimate big league hitter for a long time, but there's really not much else there to be optimistic about. Neil Walker and Garrett Jones have been inconsistent, Pedro Alvarez looks like a AA player, and there is no way in my mind that Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick return next year. The Pirates are going to have to get some bats in free agency if they want to look significantly better next year than this year, and unless they do it, they once again have very little chance of competing for 6 months.

The starters also worry me. Paul Maholm and Kevin Correia had good first halves but I don't think they can be anything more than 4 starters in the big leagues. The upside comes with Charlie Morton and McDonald, they will be the best two pitchers on this team next year. The 5th spot looks to be up in the air with competition forming between Ohlendorf and Lincoln, and maybe even a Locke.

It's too early to talk too extensively about 2012, but it always feels good to look forward to when the Pirates will be 0-0 once again and have hope.

James McDonald September 11 Pitch F/X

4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Count	Strikes/%
4-Seam	92.8	-2.25	10.45	49	28/57.14%
Curve	77.3	5.68	-5.25	14	9/64.29%
2-Seam	91.9	-5.96	7.32	21	11/52.38%

Season Averages

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Selection	Strike%
4-Seam	93.0	-3.10	10.11	44.0%	71.0%
Change	81.6	-3.76	4.63	6.7%	52.6%
Curve	76.5	5.73	-7.59	26.6%	58.7%
2-Seam	92.8	-6.61	7.32	22.7%	60.9%

Marlins vs. Pirates, Game 146

Florida Marlins (65-79) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (66-79)
1:35 at PNC Park

Javier Vazquez (9-11, 4.29) vs. James McDonald (9-7, 3.98)

Lineups:

Marlins Lineup: 1. Emilio Bonifacio (S) LF 2. Omar Infante (R) 2B 3. Greg Dobbs (L) RF 4. Gaby Sanchez (R) 1B 5. Bryan Petersen (L) CF 6. Donnie Murphy (R) SS 7. Matt Dominguez (R) 3B 8. Brett Hayes (R) C 9. Javier Vazquez (R) P

Pirates Lineup: 1. Alex Presley (L) LF 2. Neil Walker (S) 2B 3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF 4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B 5. Ryan Doumit (S) C 6. Ryan Ludwick (R) RF 7. Josh Harrison (R) 3B 8. Ronny Cedeno (R) SS 9. James McDonald (L) P

Liveblog:

Jared Hughes Impressive, Jeff Locke To Start Tonight

It's hard to sit through an entire Pirate game these days. The team has fallen a long ways from where they were in mid July, and every day we are getting closer and closer to loss number 82. One of the only things that makes the Pirates worth watching these days are too see Jared Hughes and Jeff Locke pitch. Those two started the year in AA Altoona and were impressive enough in AAA Indianapolis to earn a September call-up. We have seen Hughes twice now and Locke will make the start tomorrow.

Here's what Hughes has done in his extremely small sample:

1.1 Innings vs. Houston:
J. Paredas grounded out to pitcher
J. Martinez grounded out to shortstop
C. Lee popped out to second base
M. Downs singled to center field
J. Michaels grounded out to pitcher

1.1 Innings vs. Florida:
R. Nolasco grounded out to third base
E. Bonifacio grounded out to second base
O. Infante grounded out to third base
G. Dobbs grounded out to short stop

That's 9 batters faced and 7 groundouts, a pop out, and a single. Pretty impressive. His average velocity on the fastball has been about 93, which is alright. He's also thrown a slider as his secondary pitch and has mixed in some change ups.

Locke is an even more intriguing pitcher, mainly because of he projects to be a starter. We'll get a close look at him tomorrow, and I'll be sure to post the Pitch F/X and what I noticed from his start a few hours after the game (I'll be in attendance), so check back for that.

It's an extremely unexciting time to be a Pirate fan, especially with the Steelers kicking off their season this weekend, but at least we have something to watch the games for.

Marlins vs. Pirates, Game 144

Florida Marlins (63-79) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (66-77)
7:05 at PNC Park

Ricky Nolasco (9-10, 4.39) vs.  Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 6.35)

Lineups:

Marlins Lineup: 1. Emilio Bonifacio (S) SS 2. Omar Infante (R) 2B 3. Greg Dobbs (L) 3B 4. Mike Stanton (R) RF 5. Logan Morrison (L) LF 6. Jose Lopez (R) 1B 7. Bryan Petersen (L) CF 8. John Buck (R) C 9. Ricky Nolasco (R) P

Pirates Lineup: 1. Alex Presley (L) LF 2. Neil Walker (S) 2B 3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF 4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B 5. Ryan Doumit (S) C 6. Ryan Ludwick (R) RF 7. Josh Harrison (R) 3B 8. Pedro Ciriaco (R) SS 9. Ross Ohlendorf (R) P

Liveblog:  

The Power Bat of Andrew McCutchen?

Andrew McCutchen is a super star in the making, everyone around the league knows that. He is nearly the definition of a 5-tool player and his ceiling seems limitless. However, he seems to have changed a little bit at he plate this year. Let's take a look at some numbers.

McCutchen was called up in early June of 2009, and played 108 games for the Pirates that summer. He hit .286/.365/.471 with 12 home runs, 9 triples, 26 doubles, and 77 singles.

In 2010, his first full season, Cutch hit .286/.365/.449 with 16 home runs, 5 triples, 35 doubles, and 107 singles.

It's pretty amazing to me that McCutchen hit for the exact same batting average and on-base percentage in his first two seasons, but regardless of that, it was pretty evident that McCutchen was a guy that was going to hit for a good batting average with a moderate amount of power. Everyone was more than happy with the 15-20 home run per season power as long as he hit above .280, stole a bunch of bases and played defense as well as he could. However, 2011 has been a different story.

So far in 2011, the Pirates center fielder has hit .269/.372/.473 with 22 home runs, 4 triples, 31 doubles, and 80 singles. The average is significantly lower than what we have seen from him in his first two years. However, the on-base and slugging numbers are up.

One reason for that is probably the position McCutchen has been hitting in the lineup. He has started 137 games this year. In 64 of those starts, McCutchen was hitting 3rd in the lineup, and in 27 of them he was hitting clean up. That leaves him with 46 games where he led off. So 91 starts from a power spot against 27 from a speed/batting average spot. Compare that to 2010, when McCutchen led off in 82 games and hit 3rd in 53 games. He also hit 2nd in 17 games, so there was much less need for him to hit for power hitting at the top of the order so much.

I'm not buying that that's the only reason however. I'm not confident in saying this, but with the lack of power that Pedro Alvarez gave the Pirates this year, I think McCutchen might have taken it upon himself to hit the ball over the fence a little more often. There's a distinct difference in a home run swing compared to a contact swing, and when a hitter starts focusing more on hitting for power, he is going to lose batting average points almost every time. Only McCutchen himself could tell you if his approach at the plate is different in general this year than in years past, but I believe it has.

Scouts have always said that McCutchen has power upside, but nobody was predicting this guy to come up and hit 30+ home runs a year. He isn't going to get there this year, but the power he has shown this year has been quite impressive. McCutchen absolutely belted a pair of bombs Wednesday night and has really showcased the power in his bat this season. It hasn't come without a cost though, as his batting average is going to be nearly 20 points under his career average.

With Jose Tabata and Alex Presley showing very good ability to get on base and put the pressure on running the bases, this change in McCutchen's approach could be perfect for this Pirates lineup in coming years. They need someone who can hit home runs, there's really no one in the system other than Alvarez with that ability, so they need all the power they can get, and McCutchen has shown us that he can really help in that category.

Unless the Pirates resign a Derrek Lee or Ryan Ludwick, or go out and sign a power bat in the offseason, it's going to be a race between McCutchen and Alvarez for who leads the team in home runs next year. With Alvarez's constant struggle in 2010, and the fact that he is going to be granted another option, he could very well spend a lot of time in the minors next year, so McCutchen will probably be the biggest power bat in the lineup for most of the year. That's kind of sad to say, but what we have seen this year is encouraging, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit 30 bombs in 2012.

1st Half Joel Hanrahan vs. 2nd Half Joel Hanrahan

Tonight a friend of mine (you can follow him on twitter here) asked me if Joel Hanrahan's stuff has been changing as the season has been progressing. I didn't have an answer for him there, but my instinct was to guess no. I decided to do some research on the subject, and here's what I found.

First of all, here are the numbers for Hanrahan from the first half compared to the second half:

1st Half Hanrahan: 40.1 IP, 1.34 ERA, .201 BAA, 8 BB, 35 K, 1 HRA
2nd Half Hanrahan: 21.1 IP, 2.11 ERA, .235 BAA, 6 BB, 19 K, 0 HRA

Despite blowing a few saves in the second half, Hanrahan has still been extremely hard to hit. His first half was just ridiculous, and I think a person would have been foolish to think he would keep up the numbers he was posting for a full season. Now let's get to business, here's the pitch f/x for the first half against the second half.

First Half:

Second Half:


You can tell that the velocity on the fastball is down by .4 miles per hour, which is somewhat substantial. There isn't too much difference in the movement, it actually looks like it improved, if anything. His whiff rates were better in the first half while he was throwing a higher percentage of his pitches for strikes. His control has been suspect in the second half, and his walks are much higher than they were before the all-star break.

I'm not worried about Hanrahan in the slightest bit. If he would have done in the first half what he has done in the second half, he would still have made the all-star team, although he probably wouldn't have been in discussions for the best closer in the league, as he was this year. You aren't going to see a pitcher keep a sub 1.50 ERA for very long, and it's encouraging to see that Hanrahan's stuff hasn't dropped off substantially.

There's no reason to think Hanrahan will be anything but dominant in the 9th inning for years to come in a Pirate uniform.

Astros vs. Pirates LIVEBLOG

Pirates Call Up Jeff Locke & Jared Hughes

The minor league affiliates wrapped up their seasons today, so we figured we would see some players called up from AAA as the rosters have already expanded. What we didn't expect however, was to see Jeff Locke and Jared Hughes. However, that's exactly what we saw.

Locke has been one of the only bright spots pitching wise for the Pirates in 2011. In 27 games and 148.1 innings, Locke put up a 3.70 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9. That was split between AA and AAA. In Altoona, Locke pitch 125 innings with a 4.03 ERA and 8.2 K/9 with 3.3 BB/9. He was better in AAA surprisingly, posting a 1.93 ERA in 23.1 innings (4 starts) while striking out 7.3 per nine and walking 2.7 per nine.

He's got some good stuff, but I'm not sure he's major league ready yet. 23.1 innings in AAA is rarely enough for a pitcher to be prepared for the big leagues, but this is a low-pressure situation and I'm sure the Pirates just wanted to get Locke some more innings before the offseason starts.

Jared Hughes is a similar story. He doesn't have the prospect status that Locke does, but his 2011 has been good. He too has split time between AA and AAA. He threw 61.2 innings in Altoona with a 4.09 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 before being promoted to AAA where he too improved. He was pushed into a bullpen role at AAA but made 35 appearances and pitched 42.2 innings. His ERA there was a very tidy 2.11, and his strikeouts went way up with the shorter outings as his K/9 elevated to 9.5 while he walked 3.8 per nine. The bullpen move seemed to be a good one for Hughes, and he should get some innings in the majors out of the pen.

I don't know what they're going to do with Locke, my guess it that he'll get a couple starts and not work out of the bullpen, but I have been wrong before.

Either way, this makes the rest of the 2011 season much more interesting, and you should keep a close eye on these two players.

More moves may be announced later tonight or tomorrow. Keep an eye out for that.

Pirates 2nd Half MVP

During the all-star break, I made a bold prediction over the radio at TribLIVE Sports Talk. That prediction was that James McDonald would be the Pirates most valuable player during the second half of the season. I also said that if the Pirates were to stay in first place and make the playoffs, McDonald would be the first one to take the ball for the Pirates in the postseason. Let's take a look at if I was right or not to this point.

Here are the numbers for the qualified Pirates players (those who have played a significant amount of time in the 2nd half):


The only two possibilities there are Ronny Cedeno and Ryan Doumit. Just picking from those two, my vote would be Doumit, despite him playing just 25 games and not playing spectacular defense. His bat has been huge for the Pirates, and the .295 average (which is even higher now because of a 2-hit game earlier today) is very impressive. Cedeno's .285 mark is good, but doesn't come with any power so you have to take it with a grain of salt. Andrew McCutchen has been thoroughly disappointing despite hitting those six home runs. Garrett Jones home run total jumps out, but the .240 average isn't doing it for me. If Derrek Lee wouldn't have gone on the DL, he would certainly be in this discussion, but you can't be an MVP when you've played only 8 games. Doumit is my offensive MVP, but not my team MVP. Let's look at the pitchers:


Looking at those numbers, there is only one option, and that's James McDonald. His 3.29 ERA, 54 strikeouts, and 60.2 innings all lead the team by a good margin. There is really nothing else I need to say to prove this point. He has far and away been the Pirates best pitcher this 2nd half.

That said, McDonald hasn't been PHENOMENAL. When I made the prediction, the Pirates were in first place and getting contributions from everybody. McDonald has really been the only pitcher that hasn't fallen off, which was the basis for my prediction in the first place, but I honestly wasn't expecting Correia and Maholm to get shelled like they did (I did however fully expect Karstens to regress). Despite everything, my prediction looks right on. Here's McDonalds 2nd half starts:

7/19 vs. CIN: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
7/25 vs. ATL: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
7/30 vs. PHI: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
8/4   vs. CHC: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
8/9   vs. SFG: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
8/15 vs. STL: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
8/21 vs. CIN: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
8/26 vs. STL: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
8/31 vs. HOU: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
9/5   vs. HOU: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Only three of those ten starts were not quality starts, and the Pirates were in all of those contests, outside of the Phillies game.

I think my point has been proven. There is still a good amount of baseball to be played, but James McDonald has been very good for the Pirates this 2nd half and seems to be shining when no one else has played very well.

I'm not trying to brag... alright yeah, I'm trying to brag. James McDonald has been the Pireates 2nd Half MVP so far, and this guy called it. McProphesying.

Astros vs. Pirates, Game 141

Houston Astros (47-93) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-76)
1:35 at PNC Park

Henry Sosa (2-2, 4.34) vs.  James McDonald (8-7, 4.11)

Lineups:

Astros Lineup: 1. Jordan Schafer (L) CF 2. Jose Altuve (R) 2B 3. J.D. Martinez (R) LF 4. Carlos Lee (R) 1B 5. Brian Bogusevic (L) RF 6. Jimmy Paredes (S) 3B 7. Angel Sanchez (R) SS 8. Humberto Quintero (R) C 9. Henry Sosa (R) P

Pirates Lineup: 1. Alex Presley (L) LF 2. Jose Tabata (R) RF 3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF 4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B 5. Neil Walker (S) 2B 6. Ryan Doumit (S) C 7. Josh Harrison (R) 3B 8. Ronny Cedeno (R) SS 9. James McDonald (L) P

Liveblog:
Gameday:  

Videos From Altoona Curve Game 9/3

I was at the Altoona Curve game last night, but I was a little lazy on the pictures and video. I got these two videos:

Here's the first one, which is Starling Marte swinging and missing at an 0-2 pitch.


Here's the second video, which makes Marte look a little better, it's a base hit to left field.



I wrote a post about what I saw at the game last night, you can read that here.

9/3 Altoona Curve - What I Learned

I was at the Altoona Curve game last night. This post is very late because of the long drive home I had, I'm not going to give a recap, just point some things out that I saw.

First of all, Aaron Pribanic made a good start for the Curve. He went 6 innings and gave up just one run. However, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his stuff. Sitting down the first base line, I couldn't see the break on his pitches very well, but his velocity was unimpressive and the other team's hitters had very little trouble putting the ball in play. They seemed to be on pretty much every pitch they swung at, they just couldn't find many holes. That said, you can't argue with what Pribanic did last night, and his season as a whole hasn't been a terrible one.

The other thing big thing that caught my eye was Tony Sanchez's defense. He had some highlights and some lowlights. The big highlight was a put-out he made at home plate to keep the game tied in the 9th. A single was hit to left field that was fielded by Quincy Latimore and fired home. The throw was high and wide, but Sanchez made a very athletic play to go get it and then dive towards home to apply the tag. The runner made just an awful slide and had no business not being safe there, but Sanchez took advantage and got the huge out. There were some balls in the dirt that Sanchez blocked routinely, looking very comfortable in doing so. However, Sanchez made an awful throw on a dropped third strike to first late in the game. Also, he did not even attempt a tag on a play at the plate that I thought he had a shot at. There was a runner on third and a ground ball was hit to the left side of the infield, the ball was thrown to first for the out there and then fired home. Sanchez had done a nice job positioning himself in the way of the runner, forcing him to slide wide of the plate, which gave Sanchez a chance to get the out, but he neglected to even attempt a tag and the runner was safe easily.

Another thing was Starling Marte. He has had a phenomenal season for Altoona and had three hits again tonight, but there was something that confused me. He was extremely patient at the plate tonight, and not how you want your hitters to be patient. He never once even considered swinging at the first pitch, which is okay for a leadoff hitter, but you have to at least be ready to swing, and that wasn't the case for him. Another time he got the count to 3-0, and was taking all the way on the next two pitches, even though there was no one on base and two outs. Really? Bases empty and two outs, and you aren't ready to swing at a 3-1 pitch? That's the perfect time to have the green light and swing for extra bases, but Marte never even considered swinging. That confused me. However, on the 3-2 pitch, Marte singled to left and then stole 2nd immediately, which made me feel better about him temporarily. I think this kid can be a good major leaguer, but I just didn't understand what I saw from him tonight in the plate patience category.

Bryan Morris pitched three innings tonight and did not give up a run, although that was aided by a pair of brilliant run-saving defensive plays. His velocity never reached 93 from what I saw, but he did strike four batters out. It was encouraging to see him put the 0's, but the velocity just isn't enough to make me confident in his abilities at the big league level.

Andrew Lambo had a good night, collecting three hits in six at bats. His season average is now up to .278, which is a long ways from the .241 he was hitting when I wrote this post on August 2nd. He didn't show any power tonight, but it's definitely there. He's going to continue to be one of the guys I'm most interested in in the minors, just because there's a lot of potential there. He looks like a big league player, he just hasn't been hitting like one since he's joined our system. I'm not ruling him out, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him turn into a serviceable major leaguer.

That's all for now, I have a couple videos that I'll try to get up tomorrow.

Pirates vs. Cubs, Game 139

Pittsburgh Pirates (63-75) vs. Chicago Cubs (59-79)
1:05 at Wrigley Field

Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 6.27) vs. Casey Coleman (2-7, 7.14)

Liveblog:

Gameday: