Catching Up With The Pirates Prospects (Part 2)

Previously I reviewed the seasons of Pirates’ 6-11^th ranked prospects according to Baseball Prospectus’ preseason list. Today I review prospects five through one. To be clear, this list isn’t necessarily a reflection of their best prospects today. You won't find Gerrit Cole on this list. It's just a review of their top prospects coming into the year.

5. Rudy Owens, LHP, 12/18/87

a. What BP called him: Three-star Prospect.

b. What BP said:

“The strike-throwing lefty continued to prove his doubters wrong by winning the Eastern League ERA title," with a perfect world projection of “fourth starter and innings eater.”

c. How he’s pitched: 109.2 IP, 69 K’s, 32 BB, 43% GB, 4.76 ERA, 4.10 FIP at AAA Indianapolis.

d. Smarter people have said: Owens’ name hasn’t come up much this season. He was mentioned at BP as an option for the rotation if the Pirates were to become sellers way back in May. Sellers? Psht. So young... so naive.

e: Comments: Owens has been very consistent in his steady progress up the Minor League ranks, posting FIPS between 3.12 and 3.61 dating back to 2007. However, he hasn’t been able to maintain the same strikeout rates in his first taste of AAA, posting a career low K/PA of 14.4 % and his highest BB/PA rate since rookie ball. He’s young for the International League at 23 years old, but it appears his ceiling of a 4^th starter is correct. There's value in that in baseball, but will he ever represent anything to the Bucs other than a cheaper version of what they already have?

4. Tony Sanchez, C, 5/20/88

a. What BP called him: Four-star prospect

b. What BP said:

“Sanchez is the rare catcher with the ability to impact games both behind the plate and at it. He has a mature approach at the plate and scouts believe that many of his doubles will turn into home runs down the road. He could be an above-average everyday catcher, both offensively and defensively.”

c. How he’s hit: .239/.341/.314 (.655 OPS), .305 wOBA, 4 HR, 4 SB, 37 BB, 53 Ks, .277 BABIP, 19% LD at AA Altoona.

d. Smarter people have said: Goldstein wrote in a round-up of teams’ top prospects that the Pirates “have lost a potentially big trade chip in catcher Tony Sanchez, who has gone from the catcher of the future to a player hitting just .235 while throwing out a disappointing 21 percent of opposing base stealers,” with one executive adding “this guy was the fourth pick on the draft, and now he’s doing nothing.” Meanwhile, Tim Williams at PiratesProspects.com wonders whether Sanchez is having a down year or a bust.

e: Comments: What happened to this guy? Three straight years with a wOBA hovering between .362 and .409 with ISO’s of at least .140, and all of a sudden he can’t buy a hit with the Curve. To make matters worse, he’s putting more balls on the ground than he has since his debut at low A State college and he hasn’t lived up to his reputation as a great thrower, either. The good news is that his BABIP is over 50 points lower than his career average and the 23-year-old still has time on his side. Still, it has been a disappointing season for a player who came into the year looking like a solid bet to be a quality everyday player.

3. Luis Heredia, LHP, 8/16/94

a. What BP called him: Four-star prospect.

b. What BP said:

“Heredia possesses every aspect of a highly projectable arm. He’s tall with plenty of room to fill out, and his delivery is uncommonly smooth for such a young pitcher with his kind of height and long levers. He already has average velocity. Heredia’s ceiling was unmatched in this year’s international class, and he has true star potential.”

c. How he’s pitched: 18.1 IP, 15 BB, 17 K’s, 6.87 ERA, 36% GB, 6.64 FIP with the Rookie GCL Pirates.

d. Smarter people have said: Heredia made Goldstein’s top 101 Cheat Sheet on April 7^th and only recently made his GCL debut.

e: Comments: It’s way too early to make any meaningful assessments based on what Heredia has done. The sample is tiny and he was born after (insert Bill Simmons pop culture reference from 1994).*

2. Stetson Allie, RHP, 3/13/91

a. What BP called him: Five-star prospect

b. What BP said:

“Not even Taillon can match Allie’s arm strength. One of the hardest throwers ever to come out of the prep ranks, Allie can sit at 97-98 mph. Allie’s ceiling is higher than that of even Taillon, but his chances of reaching it are significantly smaller due to lack of polish.”

c. How he’s pitched: 20.1 IP, 23 K’s, 20 BB, 44% GB, 7.97 ERA, 6.01 FIP at Low Class A State College.

d. Smarter people have said: On June 24th, Jim Shonerd over at Baseball America said “I’d let stay as a starter as long as I could, but if you made me make a prediction, I would say he does end up in the bullpen eventually.” He later made the not-so hot sheet on July 29th, with BA saying “there are major red flags that are going to take significant adjustments for the 20-year-old to right the ship.” Goldstein said of Allie that all the walks, hit batters and wild pitches are a “cause for plenty of concern.” Over at PiratesProspects.com, Williams argues that it’s too early to carve Stetson Allie’s career in stone.

e. Comments: Allie’s debut went a lot worse than Taillon’s went well, which is awful writing, but the point stands – he was pretty bad. His last three outings? 2.1 IP, 4 hits, 6 walks and 9 earned runs. He’s young enough to turn things around, but it’s tough not to take down expectations a peg or five. On the bright side, he has averaged over a strikeout per inning.

1. Jameson Taillon, RHP, 11/28/91

a. What BP called him: Five-star prospect.

b. What BP said:

“Taillon has the raw ability to be a true ace. His size is ideal, his arm action effortless, and his velocity nearly at the top of the scale as he sits in the mid-90s. One scout called his curveball, ‘the best single pitch in the draft’ due to its velocity and movement.”

c. How he’s pitched: 67.2 IP, 71 SO, 11 BB, 47% ground balls, 4.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP at Class A South Atlantic League.

d. Smarter people have said: Taillon was ranked as the 9th best prospect in baseball on July 7th by Baseball America and the 14th best prospect by Keith Law (clearly a hater). Law notes that he has a plus fastball and flashes a plus slider (no mention of the curveball from BP’s preseason write up) and that the Pirates have been very cautious with his workload. Kevin Goldstein commented on his strikeout to walk ratio, but mentioned that he has been “surprisingly hittable.” He had a .344 BABIP, so some of that may just be a little poor luck.

e. Comments: Taillon has remained healthy, racked up over a strikeout per inning, limited walks and demonstrated an ability to get groundballs. To me, that’s a very successful pro debut. It will be interesting to see how scouts believe he compares to Cole. Most organizations would be thrilled to have one guy with true ace potential in their system, but the Pirates have at least two.

*Is there a less helpful way to understand something in sports than to know what the pop culture equivalent of it is? That’s rhetorical.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Bunting

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their 6th straight game tonight, and have fallen quite a ways since being in first place in the National League Central. In the 9th inning, the Pirates used an all too familiar tactic to try and tie the game up.

The newly acquired Derrek Lee led the inning off by reaching base after being hit by a 3-2 pitch. That brought the other trade deadline acquisition, Ryan Ludwick to the plate. Manager Clint Hurdle did exactly what we were all hoping he wouldn't, and signaled Ludwick to lay down a sacrifice bunt, which he did. That brought up the struggling Pedro Alvarez, who had 2 hits earlier in the game.

Now stop there for a minute. Let me throw some numbers out at you. According to an in depth study of the 2005 Major League Baseball season by Baseball Prospectus, the chance of scoring a run with a man on first base and nobody out is 41.7%. The chance of scoring a run with a man on 2nd base and one out is 41.0%. So by bunting the runner over, you automatically lessen your chance of scoring by 0.7%. Sure, that study was taken from one season of baseball, and those numbers might not be the same for every season. However, it is pretty certain that the first percentage I gave you will always be higher than the second one, it's just a matter of by how much.

The lineup is also a major consideration here. By bunting Ludwick to get Alvarez to the plate (who would be followed by Ryan Doumit), and knowing that there is a better chance of scoring by letting Ludwick swing away (with average batters everywhere), Hurdle seems to be saying that he had more confidence in Alvarez getting a hit than Ludwick. Is this logical? That's very arguable. As I said, Alvarez was 2/3 in the game and Ludwick was 0/3. Neither batter has had success at the plate in terms of getting hits this year, as Ludwick sports a .233 average to Alvarez's .211 average. Ludwick had not registered a hit in his first 10 at bats with the Pirates, and Alvarez had 5 hits in his last 11 at bats, so it's easy to say he had the hotter bat. The other argument is that there was a right handed pitcher on the mound, so you would rather have the left handed Alvarez facing him. That said, you really have no reason to be confident in either of these guys' bats to get a hit, so in my opinion, you should just play the percentages in this situation.

For whatever reason, Hurdle had Ludwick bunt and gave up another out. Two strikeouts later, the ballgame was over and the Pirates were below .500 again.

There will always be 2 sides of this argument, but the raw numbers say that Hurdle made the wrong decision, and it's beginning to get ridiculous how many of these bunts do the Pirates absolutely no good.

Morton Strong, Offense Not | Cubs 1 Pirates 0

Charlie Morton was back in full force tonight, pitching 7 shut out innings and striking out 7. It was a great start for Morton and absolutely huge for him going forward. However, the offense couldn't pick him up the Pirates lost their 6th straight game.

It would be really nice if I could just write about how great Morton was tonight in breaking the Pirates skid, but unfortunately I cannot do that. Chris Resop gave up a solo home run to Starlin Castro in the 8th and that was all the Cubs would need.

In fairness to the Cubs, Matt Garza was great as he has been for most of this season. He went 7+ innings and gave up just 4 hits while walking 2 and striking out 7 of his own. The Pirates had their chances, but couldn't get a hit with a runner in scoring position. Neil Walker had a man on second with 2 out in the 8th and crushed one right at Aramis Ramirez, who gloved it for the 3rd out.

The Pirates threatened in the 9th. Derrek Lee was hit by a pitch and bunted to second by Ryan Ludwick, but Marmol struck out Pedro Alvarez and the pinch hitting Ryan Doumit to end the ballgame.

This is an extremely discouraging stretch for the Pirates, and it just keeps getting worse with every loss. They are now a game below .500 after mustering just 4 hits off the Cubs. They'll have to find some way to win tomorrow if they want to avoid a 4-game sweep to the 5th place Cubs. Yuck.

James McDonald gets the ball tomorrow, which is exciting in and of itself. Don't give up yet, Pirates fans.

Charlie Morton August 3 Pitch F/X

7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Count	Strikes/%
4-Seam	90.1	-2.44	2.74	11	4/36.36%
Change	83.7	-6.99	-0.71	1	0/0.00%
Slider	82.4	-3.27	-1.83	7	4/57.14%
Curve	77.8	7.87	-7.30	12	6/50.00%
2-Seam	90.7	-8.16	-0.04	63	48/76.19%

Season Averages

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Selection	Strike%
4-Seam	91.8	-4.25	5.24	6.8%	63.3%
Change	85.5	-6.75	1.59	5.3%	42.4%
Slider	85.1	-1.42	1.31	3.6%	50.9%
Curve	78	8.43	-7.0	12.2%	61.5%
2-Seam	91.8	-9.06	1.97	72.2%	65.4%

Cubs vs. Pirates, Game 109

Chicago Cubs (45-65) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (54-54)
7:05 at PNC Park

Matt Garza (4-8, 3.99) vs. Charlie Morton (8-6, 4.04)

Lineups:

Cubs Lineup: 1. Starlin Castro (R) SS 2. Darwin Barney (R) 2B 3. Aramis Ramirez (R) 3B 4. Carlos Pena (L) 1B 5. Marlon Byrd (R) CF 6. Geovany Soto (R) C 7. Alfonso Soriano (R) LF 8. Tyler Colvin (L) RF 9. Matt Garza (R) P

Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF 2. Garrett Jones (L) RF 3. Neil Walker (S) 2B 4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B 5. Ryan Ludwick (R) LF 6. Pedro Alvarez (L) 3B 7. Ronny Cedeno (R) SS 8. Michael McKenry (R) C 9. Charlie Morton (R) P

Liveblog:

Gameday:

Let's Pretend... | Cubs 11 Pirates 6

Let's pretend it's April 1st, and the 2011 Major League Baseball Regular Season is about to begin. All of the sudden, some time traveler shows up and tells you that the Pirates will be at .500 on August 3rd. What are your emotions?

Try your best to hold on to that happiness right now. The Pirates have fallen a long way since being in first place in the NL Central at the all-star break. Since the midsummer classic, they are 7-11, and they're 2-9 in their last 11 games after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Cubs.

The story of tonight was Kevin Correia getting absolutely shelled for 2+ innings before getting yanked without recording a run in the 3rd. He gave up 4 home runs and never gave the Pirates a chance. If there is any good news, it's that the offense collected 10 hits and scored 6 runs, which would have been good enough to win on a lot of nights this year, but not tonight. The Cubs pounded out 21 hits through 9 innings and scored in 5 different innings, including the first 4 of the game. Terrible pitching, but you have to give the Cubs some credit. They have a pretty strong lineup (although it makes no sense to me why they didn't move Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena at the deadline).

It should also be noted that Garrett Jones hit 2 home runs tonight, it would be big for this offense if he could heat up, but I'm not holding my breath.

This is a tough time for Pittsburgh baseball fans, but no matter what happens, let's continue to enjoy this baseball season, because it's been a very positive one regardless. New fans, don't jump off the bandwagon yet. If this team can do what they've done this year, then you should be very, very excited for next year and the years after it. It's a young team that is getting more and more valuable experience with every game, and the future still looks extremely bright.

The Pirates need to grab a win tomorrow if they want to avoid falling below .500 for the first time since June 21st. The Brewers lost tonight so the Bucs remain 5.5 games out of first, which is completely overcomebable (that's not a word) in the 54 games the Pirates have left.

Kevin Correia August 2nd Pitch F/X

2 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4 HR

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Count	Strike/%
4-Seam	91.1	-2.39	7.82	26	17/63.38%
Change	86.4	-6.00	4.07	3	3/100%
Slider	89.0	3.56	3.99	19	14/73.68%
Curve	78.5	5.39	-3.64	4	3/75.00%
Cutter	90.5	1.34	6.66	4	2/50.00%
2-Seam	91.2	-5.26	4.88	3	2/66.67%

Terrible start for Correia. All over the heart of the zone.

Season Averages

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Selection	Strike%
4-Seam	90.6	-2.42	8.38	29.1%	66.7%
Change	86.4	-6.58	4.87	10.3%	57.6%
Slider	87.5	3.00	4.46	21.9%	64.5%
Curve	77.8	7.32	-5.35	12.4%	56.3%
Cutter	90.6	1.42	7.64	7.6%	60.5%
2-Seam	90.5	-6.82	6.62	17.5%	65.9
Fastball	88.6	-6.65	6.07	1.2%	43.5

Cubs vs. Pirates, Game 108

Chicago Cubs (44-65) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (54-53)
7:05 at PNC Park

Randy Well (2-4, 6.16) vs. Kevin Correia (12-8, 4.24)

Liveblog:

Gameday:

Pirates Starting Rotation Regression

The Pirates have hit a rough patch recently, losing 4 in a row and 8 of their last 11, and the offense has been taking all the blame. While you can't argue that the offensive production has been the Pirates biggest problem this year, the starting pitching hasn't exactly been great recently either. The staff was excellent the entire first half, but now we are seeing signs of regression. Let's take a close look (BAA = batting average against, SLGA = slugging percentage against, ZiPS = statistical predictor):

Kevin Correia:
Last Start (7/28): 6.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Last 3 Starts: 17.0 IP, 22 H, 5.82 ERA, .324 BAA, .516 SLGA, 3 HR, 5 BB, 9 K
Last 5 Starts: 26.2 IP, 37 H, 6.08 ERA, .339 BAA, .514 SLGA, 4 HR, 7 BB, 17 K
Rest of Season ZiPS: 4.74 ERA, .282 BAA

Paul Maholm:
Last Start (8/1): 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Last 3 Starts: 19.0 IP, 25 H, 4.74 ERA, .342 BAA, .562 SLGA, 2 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Last 5 Starts: 31.2 IP, 38 H, 3.98 ERA, .319 BAA, .513 SLGA, 3 HR, 6 BB, 24 K
Rest of Season ZiPS: 4.43 ERA, .279 BAA

James McDonald:
Last Start (7/30): 5.0 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Last 3 Starts: 16.2 IP, 22 H, 2.70 ERA, .310 BAA, .423 SLGA, 2 HR, 5 BB, 21 K
Last 5 Starts: 28.2 IP, 34 H, 3.14 ERA, .293 BAA, .422 SLGA, 4 HR, 10 BB, 32 K
Rest of Season ZiPS: 4.13 ERA, .254 BAA

Jeff Karstens:
Last Start (7/31): 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Last 3 Starts: 19.0 IP, 20 H, 3.32 ERA, .286 BAA, .357 SLGA, 1 HR, 6 BB, 9 K
Last 5 Starts: 35.0 IP, 32 H, 2.06 ERA, .252 BAA, .323 SLGA, 2 HR, 6 BB, 14 K
Rest of Season ZiPS: 5.14 ERA, .288 BAA

Charlie Morton:
Last Start (7/29): 4.0 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
Last 3 Starts: 14.1 IP, 18 H, 5.65 ERA, .316 BAA, .509 SLGA, 2 HR, 11 BB, 10 K
Last 5 Starts: 25.1 IP, 29 H, 4.97 ERA, .290 BAA, .470 SLGA, 3 HR, 14 BB, 17 K
Rest of Season ZiPS: 4.83 ERA, .279 BAA

The staff as a whole has a 4.40 ERA in its last 15 starts, and a 3.90 ERA in its last 25 starts. Their recent struggles have been slightly overshadowed by the extreme lack of offense, but it should be noted that the are regressing back to where we expected them to be.

Even with the 4.40 ERA they've posted in the last 15 games, they are still out performing their expectations. Nobody expected this staff to be anything more than awful, and they've been really good all season long. Let's hope they can turn this bad stretch around and help this new offense start winning ballgames again.

Andrew Lambo's Tough 2011

Last summer, the Pittsburgh Pirates made a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers that brought in James McDonald while sending away Octavio Dotel. While McDonald was a huge piece in that deal, he wasn't the only piece. Andrew Lambo also came over in the trade, which made it even more exciting.

Lambo was a former top prospect with power potential. He had struggled for a few years in the minors and even got in some drug trouble, which the Dodgers weren't putting up with. The Pirates figured they'd give him a chance, as they often do with struggling former top prospects. Because of his potential, Lambo was one of the biggest prospects to watch this season. Unfortunately, he has been incredibly disappointing thus far.

The 6'3'', 210 pound first baseman started the year in AAA after hitting .275/.353/.352 in his 26 games with AA Altoona in 2010. In 60 games in Indy, Lambo hit a dismal .184/.257/.292 with just 3 home runs while striking out 48 times and drawing only 17 walks before being demoted back to AA. Since then, he has played 36 games and has hit .241/.311/.383 with 3 more dingers and 30 strikeouts to only 14 walks. His season totals now sit at .208/.280/.330 with 6 home runs, 78 strikeouts and 31 walks. That's not at all what you're looking for in anybody, especially one of your biggest power prospects.

It doesn't look like Lambo is going to be a factor down the road for the Pirates. The organization won't give up on him quite yet however, and crazier things have happened. Keep an eye on Lambo and see if he starts to turn a corner here as the minor league season draw to an end. At the end of the day, it was a low-risk just losing Dotel, who was a free agent at the end of the season anyway, and the move stay a positive as James McDonald continues to impress at the big league level.

Derrek Lee Spray Charts

Derrek Lee made a big splash in his Pirates debut with 2 home runs. I decided to take a look at his spray charts for this year and for his career, and then I figured I'd share them with you guys. That's just the kind of guy I am.


Here's a fun one... this is his entire career's worth:
Lee hits the ball all over the place, but it seems from these charts that he is more successful when pulling the ball. Lots of flyouts to right field this year and in his career. We saw him pull a home run a long ways to left and also hit one out to right center tonight, so there's no secrets here. Lee can do a lot of things at the plate, as you can tell by his fantastic career numbers.

Here's a look at how Lee responds to different pitches. Here's his entire (recorded) career's worth of at-bats (click on it for a bigger image).


You can see that he struggles most with sliders and changeups (well... technically knuckleballs and knucklecurves but those don't count), but is pretty good at getting all balls in play. There's not a whole lot you can learn from these numbers, but interesting to see.

That's what I bring you at The "Mc" Effect, completely useless information. But it's completely worthless information that you don't find at other Pirates blogs. Keep reading, Pittsburgh!

Derrek Lee Flying Solo | Cubs 5 Pirates 3

Derrek Lee had a monstrous Pirates debut. The 2nd newest Pirate hit 2 home runs and drove in all 3 of the Pirates runs, but got no support from the rest of his offense and the Pirates lost their 4th straight game.

Lee hit a solo home run in the 4th and then a 2-run shot in the 8th. The pitching wasn't as good as the Pirates would have liked, as starter Paul Maholm gave up 4 runs in 6 innings and Daniel McCutchen gave up another one in the top of the 9th. Jason Grilli threw another 1-2-3 inning and has continued to be very good since the Pirates acquired him.

The offense wasn't invisible tonight, they collected 10 hits, they were just too scattered to do any real damage. Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez had 2-hit days along side D-Lee, but the new outfielder Ryan Ludwick was silent going 0/3 with a walk.

Another frustrating loss. The Cubs did a lot of damage with 2-outs and it is a real downer to lose the first game of a 7-game homestand against two bad teams after losing 3 in Philadelphia.

They are really going to have to turn this around quickly because they need to have a good homestand here if they want to stay in this division race. The offensive production from Lee was certainly good to see, he could prove to be a huge addition down the stretch. His expectations are raised a little bit now because of his 2-homer night, but it's sure nice to have a proven big league bat in the lineup.

At the end of the day, it's just one game and the team is much better than it was 48 hours ago.

Until tomorrow...

Paul Maholm August 1 Pitch F/X

6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Count	Strike/%
4-Seam	87.6	6.44	8.25	16	11/68.75%
Change	81.8	8.06	2.26	19	11/57.89%
Slider	82.77	0.81	3.02	27	21/77.78%
Curve	71.1	-5.43	-6.81	7	5/71.43%
2-Seam	87.3	9.98	4.75	24	11/45.83%

Season Averages

Pitch Type	Avg Speed	H-Break	V-Break	Selection	Strike%
Fastball	85.5	9.96	2.80	0.7%	76.9%
4-Seam	87.3	6.79	7.80	15.1%	62.0%
Change	81.8	9.17	2.23	18.3%	62.7%
Slider	81.6	0.45	2.09	16.4%	63.4%
Curve	72.2	-4.81	-5.65	12.1%	57.0%
2-Seam	87.3	10.6	4.24	37.4%	65.6%

Cubs vs. Pirates, Game 107

Chicago Cubs (43-65) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (54-52)
7:05 at PNC Park

Carlos Zambrano (7-6, 4.59) vs. Paul Maholm (6-10, 3.16)

Lineups:

Cubs Lineup: 1. Reed Johnson (R) RF 2. Starlin Castro (R) SS 3. Jeff Baker (R) 3B 4. Geovany Soto (R) C 5. Marlon Byrd (R) CF 6. Alfonso Soriano (R) LF 7. Carlos Pena (L) 1B 8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B 9. Carlos Zambrano (S) P

Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF 2. Garrett Jones (L) RF 3. Neil Walker (S) 2B 4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B 5. Ryan Ludwick (R) LF 6. Pedro Alvarez (L) 3B 7. Ronny Cedeno (R) SS 8. Michael McKenry (R) C 9. Paul Maholm (L) P

Liveblog:

Gameday:

How Much Better Do Lee & Ludwick Make The Pirates?

The Pittsburgh Pirates made 2 moves at the deadline, acquiring Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. It is now Monday and both of those guys are in the lineup. Let's compare these two to the players that they are replacing. I'm going to use ZiPS in this comparison, which basically is a tool that predicts the stats that each player will contribute for the rest of the season.

Lyle Overbay vs. Derrek Lee:

Overbay: .227/.300/.349, 8 HR, .290 wOBA, -0.8 WAR, -5.3 UZR
Lee: .246/.302/.404, 12 HR, .310 wOBA, 0.5 WAR, 5.3 UZR

Overbay ZiPS: .240/.323/.401, 5 HR, .320 wOBA
Lee ZiPS: .264/.335/.434, 7 HR, .337 wOBA

Garrett Jones vs. Ryan Ludwick

Jones: .230/.315/.404, 10 HR, .317 wOBA, 0.8 WAR, 2.4 UZR
Ludwick: .253/.301/.373, 11 HR, .298 wOBA, 1.0 WAR, 2.1 UZR

Jones ZiPS: .253/.316/.433, 7 HR, .327 wOBA
Ludwick ZiPS: .253/.319/.416, 6 HR, .321 wOBA

The upgrade is more substantial at first base, obviously. In fact, ZiPS shows that going from Jones to Ludwick is a downgrade, however that doesn't factor in the ballpark change for Ludwick, which really could make a huge difference in this situation.

I also ran some lineups tests. I used Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis Tool to compare the run expectancy per game for the two lineups pre-trades and post-trades. I used the ZiPS numbers for this test. So these numbers are the runs per game these two lineups would be expected to put up for the rest of the season. I assumed that Alex Presley would be making the majority of the starts in left field and used his expected stats in both cases.

Lineup with Lee & Ludwick: 3.968 runs per game
Lineup with Overbay & Jones: 3.920 runs per game

So according to that test, the new lineup is .48 runs per game better than the old lineup. When you stretch that out to the remaining 57 games, the Pirates will score 27.36 more runs then they would have had they not made the trades. If you take the common sabermetric belief that 10 runs gained/saved equals 1 win, the Pirates have gotten themselves 2.736 more wins for the rest of the year. This probably isn't the ideal way to do this kind of test, and I'm questioning whether these two upgrades really improved the team by 2 wins, but it sure sounds good, doesn't it?