The Pittsburgh Pirates 6 game losing streak is over.
Charlie Morton put the team on his back tonight. He pitched his 2nd complete game of the season, and this time he didn't give up a meaningless home run in the 9th. Morton earned his 5th win of the season in a tidy 106 pitch-69 strike effort. Morton got 14 groundouts, 5 strikeouts, and 3 flyouts tonight. He walked only 2 batters and surrendered 5 hits that were all scattered nicely. There were only 4 occasions in tonight's game that a Reds baserunner reached scoring position, two of those being in the first inning.
Morton just kept on doing what he's been doing all year; consistently attacking the strike zone and giving the opposition a heavy dose of the sinker. He mixed in some offspeed stuff wisely and cruised through 9 innings. The way he looked in the 9th showed that probably could have thrown another zero or two on the board. It was a fun game to watch.
It might be a little too soon still to call Morton a legitimate ace, but it's not like this season just started - tonight was Charlie's 8th start of the year. Seven of those eight starts have been really good; there's little chance that this is a fluke.
The Pirates haven't seen this kind of pitching consistently since Zach Duke's first go round in the big leagues when he posted a 1.81 ERA and started 6-0 in 14 starts in 2005. Another pitcher comes to mind that isn't really comparable in style but similar in results - and that's Oliver Perez of 2004.
All of this has come after most Pirate fans had written Charlie off entirely. They were tired of hearing about the stuff he has, they wanted results. This just goes to show that sometimes you can never be too patient with a guy with talent, especially in a struggling organization like the Pirates.
Neil Huntington knew what he was doing when he acquired Morton in the trade that sent Nate McLouth to Atlanta and subsequently started Andrew McCutchen's big league career. It took Morton a while to really figure the big leagues out, but it seems that he's got it down and will be a reliable big league starter for (hopefully) years to come. You can't really predict that, there's a lot that can happen in an extended period of time with a young pitcher, but it is certainly something that warrants excitement.
Morton didn't need much offense, and he got all his run support on two swings of the bat. Pedro Alvarez crushed his 2nd home run of the year in the top of the 4th, which brought in 3 runs, and McCutchen provided some insurance in the 7th with a 2-run bomb of his own. Both home runs traveled over 410 feet.
The Pirates are now 19-23 and have busted out of their longest losing streak of the season. They will look to start a winning streak and sweep the Reds in this 2-game set tomorrow at 12:35, it's James McDonald vs. Johnny Cueto.
*edit* just to give you a little perspective on how Morton works, brooksbaseball.net shows that Morton threw 82 2-seam fastballs (sinkers) tonight. Eighty-two. He also threw something like 12 changeups, 9 curveballs, 2 four seamers, and possibly a slider (although it was probably another changeup with movement or something like that splitter pitch he's been throwing occasionally). The guy doesn't need to mix it up to be successful. That doesn't mean he's not being cautious about the heavy dose of one pitch; he worked in his changeup near the middle of the start when all the Reds hitters had seen the sinker (two seamer) enough to sit on it. Fantastic.
Pirates vs. Reds, Game 42
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Pittsburgh Pirates (18-23) vs. Cincinnati Reds (25-17)
7:10 at Great American Ballpark
Charlie Morton (4-1, 3.13) vs. Bronson Arroyo (3-3, 3.78)
Lineups:
| Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen CF 2. Jose Tabata LF 3. Garrett Jones RF 4. Neil Walker 2B 5. Lyle Overbay 1B 6. Pedro Alvarez 3B 7. Chris Snyder C 8. Ronny Cedeno SS 9. Charlie Morton SP |
Reds Lineup: 1. Drew Stubbs CF 2. Paul Janish SS 3. Joey Votto 1B 4. Brandon Phillips 2B 5. Jay Bruce RF 6. Scott Rolen 3B 7. Jonny Gomes LF 8. Ryan Hanigan C 9. Bronson Arroyo SP |
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Gameday:
Updating Jose Tabata's 2011 Season
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A couple of weeks into the season, I wrote a post about Jose Tabata's fast start to the season. Through his first 11 games, Tabata hit .325/.460/.525 with 2 home runs and 9 walks drawn. It was a very encouraging start to the season and he had fans very excited about what he would do in his first full season in the big leagues.
On April 15th, the Pirates starting batting Andrew McCutchen in the lead off hole and moved Tabata back to the number 2 slot. Since that change, Tabata has seemingly pulled a 180 and has hit .198/.283/.302 with 1 home run and 17 strikeouts in 86 at bats (24 games). A lot of people expected that Tabata would fall off from his tear that he began the season on, but I don't think anybody expected his performance to decrease quite like it has.
Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that Tabata's struggles have been a result of being moved down in the lineup. Personally I don't believe that lineups make any significant difference in most situations. Tabata would probably be in the same situation right now if he hadn't gotten moved down in the lineup.
Like I said before, this isn't a huge surprise. Tabata has less than a full year of big league service time so pitchers are still making adjustments to get him out, and he clearly hasn't been able to adapt to those adjustments well enough to stay successful. When all is said and done, I think Tabata is too talented for his numbers to stay down for very long. You should see him hitting the ball a little better in the coming weeks.
On April 15th, the Pirates starting batting Andrew McCutchen in the lead off hole and moved Tabata back to the number 2 slot. Since that change, Tabata has seemingly pulled a 180 and has hit .198/.283/.302 with 1 home run and 17 strikeouts in 86 at bats (24 games). A lot of people expected that Tabata would fall off from his tear that he began the season on, but I don't think anybody expected his performance to decrease quite like it has.
Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that Tabata's struggles have been a result of being moved down in the lineup. Personally I don't believe that lineups make any significant difference in most situations. Tabata would probably be in the same situation right now if he hadn't gotten moved down in the lineup.
Like I said before, this isn't a huge surprise. Tabata has less than a full year of big league service time so pitchers are still making adjustments to get him out, and he clearly hasn't been able to adapt to those adjustments well enough to stay successful. When all is said and done, I think Tabata is too talented for his numbers to stay down for very long. You should see him hitting the ball a little better in the coming weeks.
Running Into Another Loss | Nationals 4 Pirates 2
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The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped their 6th straight game tonight to the Nationals by the score of 4-2.
Let's start with the good news - Paul Maholm pitched well, going 6.1 innings and giving up only 3 earned runs. Three runs allowed just hasn't been enough to win games for this Pirates team lately however, as Paul took his 6th loss of the season while getting only 2 measly runs of support. It has been ridiculous how little run support Paul has gotten this year. Maholm showed some really good pitching tonight, striking out 7 more batters. He has been getting a pretty good amount of strikeouts this year, tonight was his 3rd start of the year in which he struck out more than 5 batters.
The bad news is that the Pirates did not score tonight, despite picking up 10 hits. Now any time you get 10 hits and only 2 runs, you know there was some element of either bad luck or bad decision making, and tonight it was bad decision making, as the title of this post alludes to.
Let's flash back to the top of the 4th inning. Brandon Wood led off with a walk, which brought Chris Snyder to the plate who hit a bloop single into centerfield. The centerfielder Roger Bernadina took a little while to get to the ball because it was hit so shallow, so Wood decided to press his luck and try to go first-to-third on the single. This is something that manager Clint Hurdle has been stressing all year long, aggressiveness on the basepaths. However, there is a difference between being aggressive and being wreckless, and what we saw here was the latter. With nobody out, there is no reason for Wood to try to make it to third unless he is sure he can make it. He isn't the fastest guy, and Bernadina was fielding the ball very shallow in center, and all it took was a somewhat on-target throw to get Wood by 5 feet.
So Wood was thrown out easily at third which left the Pirates with a runner on first and 1 out. Ronny Cedeno then did his best to erase the mistake by doubling to right center field. Unfortunately it was Snyder on first and it takes a whole lot for him to score from first. So the Pirates had 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, a very good situation to score. However, Maholm was at the plate. The infield came way in, guarding against the suicide squeeze. With the infield in and the Pirates slowest baserunner at third I thought there was no way they would be foolish enough to try the squeeze play, but they did just that. Snyder took off (on a very bad break) and Maholm whiffed on a bunt, which resulted in Snyder being hung up between third and home (I really don't think Snyder would have scored on anything less than a very good bunt anyway considering the break he got and his lack of speed). Maholm went on to strikeout looking on a borderline pitch and the Pirates did not get a run in an inning when their first three batters went walk-single-double, absolutely unacceptable.
I understand that the Pirates have to press it a little bit on the basepaths, especially with the lack of offensive production they have been getting, but what we saw in the 4th inning was just plain stupid in my opinion. You might disagree, but I'm pretty set in stone on this one. We've seen Hurdle make a handful of really questionable calls this year, and it's starting to cost the Pirates more often than it helps them. We knew this would be a potential problem in spring training, but we thought taking risks would work out positively more often than negatively, I'm not sure if that has been the case this year.
That inning could have changed this ballgame entirely, but instead it was just another loss, which dropped the Pirates to 5 games below the .500 mark.
They'll try it again tomorrow against the Nationals as Charlie Morton takes the hill against Jordan Zimmermann.
Let's start with the good news - Paul Maholm pitched well, going 6.1 innings and giving up only 3 earned runs. Three runs allowed just hasn't been enough to win games for this Pirates team lately however, as Paul took his 6th loss of the season while getting only 2 measly runs of support. It has been ridiculous how little run support Paul has gotten this year. Maholm showed some really good pitching tonight, striking out 7 more batters. He has been getting a pretty good amount of strikeouts this year, tonight was his 3rd start of the year in which he struck out more than 5 batters.
The bad news is that the Pirates did not score tonight, despite picking up 10 hits. Now any time you get 10 hits and only 2 runs, you know there was some element of either bad luck or bad decision making, and tonight it was bad decision making, as the title of this post alludes to.
Let's flash back to the top of the 4th inning. Brandon Wood led off with a walk, which brought Chris Snyder to the plate who hit a bloop single into centerfield. The centerfielder Roger Bernadina took a little while to get to the ball because it was hit so shallow, so Wood decided to press his luck and try to go first-to-third on the single. This is something that manager Clint Hurdle has been stressing all year long, aggressiveness on the basepaths. However, there is a difference between being aggressive and being wreckless, and what we saw here was the latter. With nobody out, there is no reason for Wood to try to make it to third unless he is sure he can make it. He isn't the fastest guy, and Bernadina was fielding the ball very shallow in center, and all it took was a somewhat on-target throw to get Wood by 5 feet.
So Wood was thrown out easily at third which left the Pirates with a runner on first and 1 out. Ronny Cedeno then did his best to erase the mistake by doubling to right center field. Unfortunately it was Snyder on first and it takes a whole lot for him to score from first. So the Pirates had 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, a very good situation to score. However, Maholm was at the plate. The infield came way in, guarding against the suicide squeeze. With the infield in and the Pirates slowest baserunner at third I thought there was no way they would be foolish enough to try the squeeze play, but they did just that. Snyder took off (on a very bad break) and Maholm whiffed on a bunt, which resulted in Snyder being hung up between third and home (I really don't think Snyder would have scored on anything less than a very good bunt anyway considering the break he got and his lack of speed). Maholm went on to strikeout looking on a borderline pitch and the Pirates did not get a run in an inning when their first three batters went walk-single-double, absolutely unacceptable.
I understand that the Pirates have to press it a little bit on the basepaths, especially with the lack of offensive production they have been getting, but what we saw in the 4th inning was just plain stupid in my opinion. You might disagree, but I'm pretty set in stone on this one. We've seen Hurdle make a handful of really questionable calls this year, and it's starting to cost the Pirates more often than it helps them. We knew this would be a potential problem in spring training, but we thought taking risks would work out positively more often than negatively, I'm not sure if that has been the case this year.
That inning could have changed this ballgame entirely, but instead it was just another loss, which dropped the Pirates to 5 games below the .500 mark.
They'll try it again tomorrow against the Nationals as Charlie Morton takes the hill against Jordan Zimmermann.
Pirates (18-22) vs. Nationals (19-21), Game 41
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Pittsburgh Pirates (18-22) vs. Washington Nationals (19-21)
7:05 at Nationals Park
Paul Maholm (1-5, 3.60) vs. John Lannan (2-4, 4.79)
Lineups:
| Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen CF 2. Jose Tabata LF 3. Neil Walker 2B 4. Matt Diaz RF 5. Steve Pearce 1B 6. Brandon Wood 3B 7. Chris Snyder C 8. Ronny Cedeno SS 9. Paul Maholm SP |
Nationals Lineup: 1. Roger Bernadina CF 2. Ian Desmond SS 3. Jayson Werth RF 4. Wilson Ramos C 5. Adam LaRoche 1B 6. Michael Morse LF 7. Danny Espinosa 2B 8. Jerry Hairston 3B 9. John Lannan SP |
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The 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates Through 40 Games
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are struggling right now. They have lost 5 games in a row, their longest skid of the season. All of this came directly after a 3-game winning streak and a stretch where the club won 7 of 10 games. It seems that this team is going to be a peek and valley team all year long, but for right now I want to take a look at the big picture, what they have done so far this year collectively. Before we do that, let's take a quick look at the ugliness of these last 5 games.
Here are the numbers for these last 5 games based on the information I've been collecting all season:
This team had been battling right around the .500 mark all season, and even got up over it last weekend when they reached 18-17, and they did all that largely through the success of the starting pitchers. However, the starters have been struggling quite a bit in this 5 game skid. Keep in mind that Charlie Morton hasn't made an official start in these 5 games, because of Thursday's postponed game. That said, the last 5 Pirates starters have compiled an ERA of 6.75 in 25.2 innings pitched. They have given up 6 home runs, an average of 6.8 hits per game, and struck out only 3.6 batters per game during the skid. The main culprit has been Kevin Correia, who has gotten roughed up in his last two outings, giving up 10 earned runs in 10.1 innings and taking 2 losses because of it. That's not going to win you many ballgames, and in this case it hasn't won the Pirates any.
The offense has continued to be poor through this stretch, scoring only 2.6 runs per game on 7 hits per game in these last 5 games. They are hitting .215 as a team, even lower than their ugly season average of .233, this also isn't going to help you win ballgames, especially when your starters are struggling at the same time.
The Pirates will try to put this subject to bed with a win tonight over the Washington Nationals, who they are 2-1 against this year.
Now here's the updated stats for the entire season:
As we mentioned before, the offense has been very bad all year long. They are hitting .234 and scoring only 3.5 runs per game. Strikeouts have been a continued problem, as they are averaging 8.2 a game. Opposing pitchers are averaging 6 innings pitched per start, which means the Pirates aren't getting into the other teams bullpens nearly as much as you would like.
The pitching as a whole has been solid, although these numbers have started looking worse and worse every day over the last week. The 4.29 staff ERA is something we'll take every time. They're going almost 6 innings per start and allowing just 2.8 earned runs in those starts, which is nearly averaging a quality start, certainly a big positive. The team just hasn't been able to put good pitching and good hitting together frequently enough to have a winning record right now, and they have become very susceptible to these losing streaks.
The Pirates will continue to battle and try to work out some of the kinks, and I'm not going to say that a .500 season isn't possible with this team, it's just going to take some fast progression and a good amount of luck. Until next time, Let's Go Bucs.
Here are the numbers for these last 5 games based on the information I've been collecting all season:
This team had been battling right around the .500 mark all season, and even got up over it last weekend when they reached 18-17, and they did all that largely through the success of the starting pitchers. However, the starters have been struggling quite a bit in this 5 game skid. Keep in mind that Charlie Morton hasn't made an official start in these 5 games, because of Thursday's postponed game. That said, the last 5 Pirates starters have compiled an ERA of 6.75 in 25.2 innings pitched. They have given up 6 home runs, an average of 6.8 hits per game, and struck out only 3.6 batters per game during the skid. The main culprit has been Kevin Correia, who has gotten roughed up in his last two outings, giving up 10 earned runs in 10.1 innings and taking 2 losses because of it. That's not going to win you many ballgames, and in this case it hasn't won the Pirates any.
The offense has continued to be poor through this stretch, scoring only 2.6 runs per game on 7 hits per game in these last 5 games. They are hitting .215 as a team, even lower than their ugly season average of .233, this also isn't going to help you win ballgames, especially when your starters are struggling at the same time.
The Pirates will try to put this subject to bed with a win tonight over the Washington Nationals, who they are 2-1 against this year.
Now here's the updated stats for the entire season:
The pitching as a whole has been solid, although these numbers have started looking worse and worse every day over the last week. The 4.29 staff ERA is something we'll take every time. They're going almost 6 innings per start and allowing just 2.8 earned runs in those starts, which is nearly averaging a quality start, certainly a big positive. The team just hasn't been able to put good pitching and good hitting together frequently enough to have a winning record right now, and they have become very susceptible to these losing streaks.
The Pirates will continue to battle and try to work out some of the kinks, and I'm not going to say that a .500 season isn't possible with this team, it's just going to take some fast progression and a good amount of luck. Until next time, Let's Go Bucs.
Back In Town
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The "Mc" Effect is back. After a 10-day hiatus, I am back and more motivated than ever to bring you some quality Pittsburgh Pirates information and analysis.
In my time away from the blog, the Pirates went 3-5, so I guess it's good that I'm back.
I'm not on my usual computer right now, so I can't bring any real information here, but the one thing I have to say is that this team seems to be developing into the team we're going to see for the remainder of this year; a very inconsistent one.
The Pirates won 3 games in a row from Saturday to Monday, and have now dropped 5 in a row. The starting pitching was pretty solid throughout that entire streak, but the offense really wasn't there. The bullpen struggled mightily and lost the Pirates a couple of games, and got absolutely shredded Saturday night in the middle of the game.
There isn't anything about this team that you can expect consistency from. The pitching has been very good for the most part so far this year, but nobody really expects that to continue throughout the rest of the year. The offense has been much worse than anybody expected, and it should improve by the end of the year. So there are two things that have been opposite of how we expected so far, and things that we expect to gravitate more towards their original expectations.
That said, I don't see either of those elements being consistent (for the better or worse) this year. This team is extremely young at its core, and we've seen both the positive and negatives sides of that. The pitching staff includes a pair of arms that are approaching the downside of their career (if they aren't there already), and they were never that great in the beginning (Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm). They could have some good stretches, but over a 162-game season it's not going to be anything better than league average.
The future is certainly bright in Pittsburgh, and this team should provide some exciting stretches this year, but they will also suffer through some ugly ones, like the one they are in right now.
I think the Pirates getting over .500 got a lot of people excited about this year's team, and then instantly dropped them with this 5 game losing streak. There will be a lot of negative talk in the next few days unless they put together some wins. If you're a real Pirate fan, you've been being patient for 18 years now, and I don't think a span of 5 days is going to hurt you much. Hang in there Bucco fans.
I'll be back tomorrow with some analysis and the updated numbers that I've been posting throughout the season.
In my time away from the blog, the Pirates went 3-5, so I guess it's good that I'm back.
I'm not on my usual computer right now, so I can't bring any real information here, but the one thing I have to say is that this team seems to be developing into the team we're going to see for the remainder of this year; a very inconsistent one.
The Pirates won 3 games in a row from Saturday to Monday, and have now dropped 5 in a row. The starting pitching was pretty solid throughout that entire streak, but the offense really wasn't there. The bullpen struggled mightily and lost the Pirates a couple of games, and got absolutely shredded Saturday night in the middle of the game.
There isn't anything about this team that you can expect consistency from. The pitching has been very good for the most part so far this year, but nobody really expects that to continue throughout the rest of the year. The offense has been much worse than anybody expected, and it should improve by the end of the year. So there are two things that have been opposite of how we expected so far, and things that we expect to gravitate more towards their original expectations.
That said, I don't see either of those elements being consistent (for the better or worse) this year. This team is extremely young at its core, and we've seen both the positive and negatives sides of that. The pitching staff includes a pair of arms that are approaching the downside of their career (if they aren't there already), and they were never that great in the beginning (Kevin Correia and Paul Maholm). They could have some good stretches, but over a 162-game season it's not going to be anything better than league average.
The future is certainly bright in Pittsburgh, and this team should provide some exciting stretches this year, but they will also suffer through some ugly ones, like the one they are in right now.
I think the Pirates getting over .500 got a lot of people excited about this year's team, and then instantly dropped them with this 5 game losing streak. There will be a lot of negative talk in the next few days unless they put together some wins. If you're a real Pirate fan, you've been being patient for 18 years now, and I don't think a span of 5 days is going to hurt you much. Hang in there Bucco fans.
I'll be back tomorrow with some analysis and the updated numbers that I've been posting throughout the season.
Skipping Town
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I'm leaving tomorrow morning for a mission trip, so I won't be able to blog until Sunday the 15th.
I know a lot of you are slipping into some sort of depression right now, but just wait.
I have a buddy that is going to be posting the lineups, gamedays, and liveblogs, so you won't be missing out on those. He is also a pretty educated baseball fan, so he might be posting some baseball stuff, so keep an eye out for that.
I will also still have access to twitter, and I've won a few awards for my tweets, so check me out there @McEffect.
So I guess it's time to say goodbye for now. Let's Go Bucs!
McSee Ya Later.
I know a lot of you are slipping into some sort of depression right now, but just wait.
I have a buddy that is going to be posting the lineups, gamedays, and liveblogs, so you won't be missing out on those. He is also a pretty educated baseball fan, so he might be posting some baseball stuff, so keep an eye out for that.
I will also still have access to twitter, and I've won a few awards for my tweets, so check me out there @McEffect.
So I guess it's time to say goodbye for now. Let's Go Bucs!
McSee Ya Later.
Kevin Correia's Hot Start
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Kevin Correia is 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA in his first 8 starts this year. That is one of the best starts for a Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher in recent memory.
Correia has 5 quality starts, which is tied for the third most in all of baseball. Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver are leading the way with 7, and there is a handful of guys at 6 including Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, and Justin Masterson, along with some others. Correia also has the 14th best ERA in the National League amongst starters, and his 5 road wins are the most of anybody in either league.
Correia's success has been largely attributed to how he's been mixing up his pitches. He throws 4 pretty solid pitches for strikes. Let's take a look at them.
,br> His primary pitch in 2011 has been the 4-seam fastball. He throws is 26.8% of the time and the average velocity on it is 89.5, which is pretty unimpressive for a guy that's hung with the best pitchers in the league through the first month. The fastball hasn't been a strikeout pitch by any means, he's getting whiffs on it only 1.7% of the time. He is locating it well however, which is the absolute most important thing for a guy like Correia. He has been throwing the fastball for a strike 69.7% of the time, which is well above the league average. The fastball has been his get ahead pitch and he's had success with it just by locating it well.
Correia's second pitch is the slider, which he's thrown 22.9% of the time. He has pretty good velocity on it at 86.6 miles per hour on average, which is about 3 miles faster than the league average slider. The location on the pitch has been good, but not great. He throws the slider for a strike 61.2% of the time. He doesn't get a lot of swings and misses on it, with a 6.6% whiff rate. While it hasn't been anything more than an average pitch, he has used it at the right times and it has certainly helped Correia have the success he's had early on.
The 2-seam fastball is also part of Correia's repertoire. He throws the pitch 16.9% of the time and has thrown it 90.2 miler per hour on average. It has a good amount of horizontal break on it, which has helped the pitch earn a better whiff rate than the league average 2-seamer. He's thrown it for a strike 63.4% of the time, another very good number. This has been a good compliment to his 4-seamer and has kept hitters off balance even in favorable counts.
The fourth pitch Correia has thrown this year is the curveball, which he's thrown 14.8% of the time. He gets the most swings and misses on the hook, with a 13.3% whiff rate, which is above the league average. A good amount of his strikeouts have come on the curve, but Correia has done a really good job locating it in order to get groundballs. You can see from the following location graph that he's thrown the curve down in the zone and has stayed out of trouble because of it.
Correia also has a changeup that he throws just about as much as he throws the curveball. The average velocity on it is 86.4 miles per hour, which is only 3 miles slower than his fastball. It is far from a dominating pitch, and probably one of Correia's least effective pitches. He gets batters to whiff on it only 4.4% of the time, when the league average is 12%. It rarely fools anybody, and batters can still make contact on it even when they are expecting a fastball, which helps explain why it's Correia's least thrown pitch.
The story with Correia so far has been location and pitch selection. He's mixed in 5 different pitches and located them all pretty well. It really doesn't matter what kind of stuff you have, if you can locate 5 different pitches you're going to have success.
The question now becomes if Correia can sustain this success.
The Pirates 2011 Opening Day starter has averaged 6.5 K/9 in his career, this year he has only 4.1 K/9. He has never anywhere near a rate of 4 K/9 in his career, so it would seem like eventually Correia will start striking some more batters out, which will only help his numbers. On the flipside of that, Correia's BB/9 is also substantially smaller than his career average. He's walking only 2.1 batters per nine this year and has a career average of 3.5 in that category. It's not too far off, and he did post a 2.9 rate in 2009, but chances are he won't be this efficient all year long. Also, Correia's ground ball percentage is a lot higher than it has been in the past. He's getting groundballs 51% of the time this year with a career average of 42.8%. He has always been more of a flyball pitcher, which hasn't hurt him as much pitching in Petco Park in his time with the Padres, but he has definitely madea conscious effort to keep more balls on the ground this year, and he's had an incredible amount of success at it. If he can keep the ball on the ground at the rate he has been, there's no reason that he can't be this good for the long haul.
If you ask me, I don't think Correia is going to finish the year with a sub-3.00 ERA, but I do think he'll be a very good pitcher. It really all depends on if his location stays as good as it has been. I don't really think that's possible, but I don't see it getting much worse, which should allow him to continue to be one of the better pitchers in the National League.
The Pirates haven't had a pitcher win 15 games since Todd Ritchie in 1999. Kevin Correia looks like he wants to change that, winning 5 of his first 8 starts in 2011.
Correia has 5 quality starts, which is tied for the third most in all of baseball. Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver are leading the way with 7, and there is a handful of guys at 6 including Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, and Justin Masterson, along with some others. Correia also has the 14th best ERA in the National League amongst starters, and his 5 road wins are the most of anybody in either league.
Correia's success has been largely attributed to how he's been mixing up his pitches. He throws 4 pretty solid pitches for strikes. Let's take a look at them.
,br> His primary pitch in 2011 has been the 4-seam fastball. He throws is 26.8% of the time and the average velocity on it is 89.5, which is pretty unimpressive for a guy that's hung with the best pitchers in the league through the first month. The fastball hasn't been a strikeout pitch by any means, he's getting whiffs on it only 1.7% of the time. He is locating it well however, which is the absolute most important thing for a guy like Correia. He has been throwing the fastball for a strike 69.7% of the time, which is well above the league average. The fastball has been his get ahead pitch and he's had success with it just by locating it well.
Correia's second pitch is the slider, which he's thrown 22.9% of the time. He has pretty good velocity on it at 86.6 miles per hour on average, which is about 3 miles faster than the league average slider. The location on the pitch has been good, but not great. He throws the slider for a strike 61.2% of the time. He doesn't get a lot of swings and misses on it, with a 6.6% whiff rate. While it hasn't been anything more than an average pitch, he has used it at the right times and it has certainly helped Correia have the success he's had early on.
The 2-seam fastball is also part of Correia's repertoire. He throws the pitch 16.9% of the time and has thrown it 90.2 miler per hour on average. It has a good amount of horizontal break on it, which has helped the pitch earn a better whiff rate than the league average 2-seamer. He's thrown it for a strike 63.4% of the time, another very good number. This has been a good compliment to his 4-seamer and has kept hitters off balance even in favorable counts.
The fourth pitch Correia has thrown this year is the curveball, which he's thrown 14.8% of the time. He gets the most swings and misses on the hook, with a 13.3% whiff rate, which is above the league average. A good amount of his strikeouts have come on the curve, but Correia has done a really good job locating it in order to get groundballs. You can see from the following location graph that he's thrown the curve down in the zone and has stayed out of trouble because of it.
Correia also has a changeup that he throws just about as much as he throws the curveball. The average velocity on it is 86.4 miles per hour, which is only 3 miles slower than his fastball. It is far from a dominating pitch, and probably one of Correia's least effective pitches. He gets batters to whiff on it only 4.4% of the time, when the league average is 12%. It rarely fools anybody, and batters can still make contact on it even when they are expecting a fastball, which helps explain why it's Correia's least thrown pitch.
The story with Correia so far has been location and pitch selection. He's mixed in 5 different pitches and located them all pretty well. It really doesn't matter what kind of stuff you have, if you can locate 5 different pitches you're going to have success.
The question now becomes if Correia can sustain this success.
The Pirates 2011 Opening Day starter has averaged 6.5 K/9 in his career, this year he has only 4.1 K/9. He has never anywhere near a rate of 4 K/9 in his career, so it would seem like eventually Correia will start striking some more batters out, which will only help his numbers. On the flipside of that, Correia's BB/9 is also substantially smaller than his career average. He's walking only 2.1 batters per nine this year and has a career average of 3.5 in that category. It's not too far off, and he did post a 2.9 rate in 2009, but chances are he won't be this efficient all year long. Also, Correia's ground ball percentage is a lot higher than it has been in the past. He's getting groundballs 51% of the time this year with a career average of 42.8%. He has always been more of a flyball pitcher, which hasn't hurt him as much pitching in Petco Park in his time with the Padres, but he has definitely madea conscious effort to keep more balls on the ground this year, and he's had an incredible amount of success at it. If he can keep the ball on the ground at the rate he has been, there's no reason that he can't be this good for the long haul.
If you ask me, I don't think Correia is going to finish the year with a sub-3.00 ERA, but I do think he'll be a very good pitcher. It really all depends on if his location stays as good as it has been. I don't really think that's possible, but I don't see it getting much worse, which should allow him to continue to be one of the better pitchers in the National League.
The Pirates haven't had a pitcher win 15 games since Todd Ritchie in 1999. Kevin Correia looks like he wants to change that, winning 5 of his first 8 starts in 2011.
Pirates vs. Padres, Game 30
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Pittsburgh Pirates (14-15) vs. San Diego Padres (11-18)
10:05 at Petco Park
Jeff Karstens (2-1, 3.57) vs. Mat Latos (0-4, 4.98)
Lineups:
| Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen CF 2. Xavier Paul LF 3. Garrett Jones RF 4. Neil Walker 2B 5. Lyle Overbay 1B 6. Chris Snyder C 7. Pedro Alvarez 3B 8. Ronny Cedeno SS 9. Jeff Karstens SP |
Padres Lineup: 1. Jason BartlettSS 2. Orlando Hudson2B 3. Ryan LudwickLF 4. Jorge Cantu3B 5. Cameron MaybinCF 6. Brad Hawpe1B 7. Rob JohnsonC 8. Will VenableRF 9. Mat Latos SP |
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Pirates Heating Up
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The Pittsburgh Pirates have not been able to string together more than 2 consecutive wins so far in 2011, but something is telling me that they are about to do just that tonight.
If you look at the last 10 games, there are a ton of really good signs. They are 6-4 in those 10 games, and had alternated wins and losses until last night, when they won their 2nd game in the row. Let's take a look at this 10-game stretch:
The Pirates have scored 3.6 runs per game and allowed 2.9 runs per game in the last 10 games. The 2.9 runs per game is better than any team in the National League has been allowing during this 2011 season. The Pirates pitchers have 2 shutouts in this stretch (in games started by Kevin Correia and James McDonald) and are allowing less than 8 hits per game, which isn't great but they have been scattered for the most part and they have done a good job limiting damage. They have gotten Quality Starts (at least 6 innings pitched with 3 or less earned runs allowed) from their starter 7 times in those 10 games.
The offense has slowly been coming around, but still hasn't hit well enough to get any momentum going. Here's the numbers for the Pirates main bats in the last 10 days:
Neil Walker: 14/40, 1 2B, 1 BB, 9 K, .350 AVG, .366 OBP
Garrett Jones: 9/28, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K, .321 AVG, .406 OBP
Andrew McCutchen: 9/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 11 K, .225 AVG, .311 OBP
Ronny Cedeno: 7/25, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, .280 AVG, .357 OBP
Chris Snyder: 6/21, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, .286 AVG, .333 OBP
Pedro Alvarez: 6/31, 1 2B, 2 BB, 10 K, .194 AVG, .265 OBP
Lyle Overbay: 6/31, 4 BB, 5 K, .194, .286 OBP
Jose Tabata: 4/28, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, .160 AVG, .214 OBP
Ryan Doumit: 2/13, 3 BB, 0 K, .154 AVG, .313 OBP
You can see that the Pirates are getting some pretty good performances on offense from guys like Jones and Walker, and it seems that McCutchen is turning the corner, he's hit the ball very hard lately and looks on the verge of getting hot. We're still waiting on Alvarez to turn it around, he has shown good and bad signs recently, and Tabata is out for a short while (we hope) with a hamstring issue. If the Pirates can get 3 or 4 guys hot together, this offense can certainly put up enough runs to string some wins together.
The Pirates are the Pirates, and you can never really get your hopes too high, but the things I've seen the last 10 games lead me to believe that they are about to go on a pretty good streak. I'm not predicting a 5-game win streak or anything, but I fully expect them get over .500 and stay there for a little while.
Let's Go Bucs.
If you look at the last 10 games, there are a ton of really good signs. They are 6-4 in those 10 games, and had alternated wins and losses until last night, when they won their 2nd game in the row. Let's take a look at this 10-game stretch:
The Pirates have scored 3.6 runs per game and allowed 2.9 runs per game in the last 10 games. The 2.9 runs per game is better than any team in the National League has been allowing during this 2011 season. The Pirates pitchers have 2 shutouts in this stretch (in games started by Kevin Correia and James McDonald) and are allowing less than 8 hits per game, which isn't great but they have been scattered for the most part and they have done a good job limiting damage. They have gotten Quality Starts (at least 6 innings pitched with 3 or less earned runs allowed) from their starter 7 times in those 10 games.
The offense has slowly been coming around, but still hasn't hit well enough to get any momentum going. Here's the numbers for the Pirates main bats in the last 10 days:
Neil Walker: 14/40, 1 2B, 1 BB, 9 K, .350 AVG, .366 OBP
Garrett Jones: 9/28, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K, .321 AVG, .406 OBP
Andrew McCutchen: 9/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 11 K, .225 AVG, .311 OBP
Ronny Cedeno: 7/25, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, .280 AVG, .357 OBP
Chris Snyder: 6/21, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K, .286 AVG, .333 OBP
Pedro Alvarez: 6/31, 1 2B, 2 BB, 10 K, .194 AVG, .265 OBP
Lyle Overbay: 6/31, 4 BB, 5 K, .194, .286 OBP
Jose Tabata: 4/28, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, .160 AVG, .214 OBP
Ryan Doumit: 2/13, 3 BB, 0 K, .154 AVG, .313 OBP
You can see that the Pirates are getting some pretty good performances on offense from guys like Jones and Walker, and it seems that McCutchen is turning the corner, he's hit the ball very hard lately and looks on the verge of getting hot. We're still waiting on Alvarez to turn it around, he has shown good and bad signs recently, and Tabata is out for a short while (we hope) with a hamstring issue. If the Pirates can get 3 or 4 guys hot together, this offense can certainly put up enough runs to string some wins together.
The Pirates are the Pirates, and you can never really get your hopes too high, but the things I've seen the last 10 games lead me to believe that they are about to go on a pretty good streak. I'm not predicting a 5-game win streak or anything, but I fully expect them get over .500 and stay there for a little while.
Let's Go Bucs.
Pirates vs. Padres, Game 29
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Pittsburgh Pirates (13-15) vs. San Diego Padres (11-17)
10:05 at Petco Park
James McDonald (1-2, 7.66) vs. Aaron Harang (4-1, 3.90)
Lineups:
| Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen CF 2. Xavier Paul LF 3. Garrett Jones RF 4. Neil Walker 2B 5. Lyle Overbay 1B 6. Chris Snyder C 7. Pedro Alvarez 3B 8. Ronny Cedeno SS 9. James McDonald SP |
Padres Lineup: 1. Will VenableRF 2. Jason BartlettSS 3. Ryan LudwickLF 4. Jorge Cantu3B 5. Cameron MaybinCF 6. Orlando Hudson2B 7. Brad Hawpe1B 8. Nick HundleyC 9. Aaron Harang SP |
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The Pittsburgh Pirates In April
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The Pirates played their first game of the month of May today. Before we move on, let's take a look backwards at the month of April.
The Pirates went 12-15 in the season's first month. All-in-all I think that's a pretty decent record, considering the circumstances that I am about to describe.
The positive side of April was the pitching. Let's look at the starters first, specifically.
Six different pitchers made starts for the Pirates in April: Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Mortonn, James McDonald, and Jeff Karstens. All together, those 6 guys had an ERA of 4.40. They pitched just below 6 innings, allowed 5.9 hits, gave up 2.9 earned runs, walked 2.5 batters, struck out 3.6 batters, and gave up 0.7 home runs, all those numbers being per start.
The leader of the rotation was Correia, who posted a 2.90 ERA in 40.1 innings in his 4-1 month of April. He was followed closely by Morton, who used his "electric stuff" to post a 3.00 ERA in 33 innings which earned him 2 wins and 1 loss. Maholm also pitched decently despite losing 4 games in the month with a 4.14 ERA. McDonald struggled mightily in his first 4 starts but had a really good outing in his 5th, and will look to see his 7.66 ERA fall significantly over the rest of the season.
When all was said and done for the month of April, the starters performed better than anybody thought they would. There are still questions about how they will perform as the season progresses and if they can keep up their successes, but I don't think many people think they will be last in the league in ERA again this year, and that's a real positive sign.
As good as the starters were, the bullpen was even better. The combination of Joel Hanrahan, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, Michael Crotta, Evan Meek, Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Joe Beimel, Garrett Olson, and Danny Moskos teamed up to post a sparkling 2.43 ERA in 81.1 April innings. The bullpen only has 3 wins to show for their efforts, and that is a testament to how much the Pirates offense has struggled late in games, but they have lost only 5 games. There were question marks about this bullpen as well coming into the season, and the bullpen has quieted a lot of that with their strong April performance.
Now we'll get to the negative part of this post, the offense.
The Pirates hit .230 as a team in April and scored only 3.4 runs per game. That's not going to win you a lot of games. There were only 7 different games where the Pirates scored 5 or more runs, and they won 5 of those games. Strikeouts have been a huge problem, the offense has struck out 8.4 times per game. Coming into the season people were thinking this would be the Pirates strong point this season, but it has been the opposite of that. Even the Pirates best players have struggled. Here are the April averages for the Pirates top hitters:
Neil Walker: .301
Garrett Jones: .265
Ryan Doumit: .255
Jose Tabata: .242
Lyle Overbay: .223
Andrew McCutchen: .219
Matt Diaz: .208
Pedro Alvarez: .200
Ronny Cedeno: .192
Ugly. It's hard to believe that the Pirates ended up only 3 games under .500 with team batting like that. Chances are that most of those guys will turn it around and have a lot more success throughout the rest of the season, which could mean really good things for the team if they keep pitching like they have been.
So the first month was probably the opposite of what you had expected. We all said that the Pirates would score a good amount of runs but the pitching wouldn't be good enough to win us a lot of games. Well it's been the opposite, the pitching has been good enough to be a winning team, but the offense hasn't followed their lead, which led to another losing month for this Pirates team. The good news it that the offense is going to get better, and if the pitching can keep up their solid start to the season, this team could definitely hang around the .500 mark for the long haul.
The Pirates went 12-15 in the season's first month. All-in-all I think that's a pretty decent record, considering the circumstances that I am about to describe.
The positive side of April was the pitching. Let's look at the starters first, specifically.
Six different pitchers made starts for the Pirates in April: Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Mortonn, James McDonald, and Jeff Karstens. All together, those 6 guys had an ERA of 4.40. They pitched just below 6 innings, allowed 5.9 hits, gave up 2.9 earned runs, walked 2.5 batters, struck out 3.6 batters, and gave up 0.7 home runs, all those numbers being per start.
The leader of the rotation was Correia, who posted a 2.90 ERA in 40.1 innings in his 4-1 month of April. He was followed closely by Morton, who used his "electric stuff" to post a 3.00 ERA in 33 innings which earned him 2 wins and 1 loss. Maholm also pitched decently despite losing 4 games in the month with a 4.14 ERA. McDonald struggled mightily in his first 4 starts but had a really good outing in his 5th, and will look to see his 7.66 ERA fall significantly over the rest of the season.
When all was said and done for the month of April, the starters performed better than anybody thought they would. There are still questions about how they will perform as the season progresses and if they can keep up their successes, but I don't think many people think they will be last in the league in ERA again this year, and that's a real positive sign.
As good as the starters were, the bullpen was even better. The combination of Joel Hanrahan, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, Michael Crotta, Evan Meek, Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Joe Beimel, Garrett Olson, and Danny Moskos teamed up to post a sparkling 2.43 ERA in 81.1 April innings. The bullpen only has 3 wins to show for their efforts, and that is a testament to how much the Pirates offense has struggled late in games, but they have lost only 5 games. There were question marks about this bullpen as well coming into the season, and the bullpen has quieted a lot of that with their strong April performance.
Now we'll get to the negative part of this post, the offense.
The Pirates hit .230 as a team in April and scored only 3.4 runs per game. That's not going to win you a lot of games. There were only 7 different games where the Pirates scored 5 or more runs, and they won 5 of those games. Strikeouts have been a huge problem, the offense has struck out 8.4 times per game. Coming into the season people were thinking this would be the Pirates strong point this season, but it has been the opposite of that. Even the Pirates best players have struggled. Here are the April averages for the Pirates top hitters:
Neil Walker: .301
Garrett Jones: .265
Ryan Doumit: .255
Jose Tabata: .242
Lyle Overbay: .223
Andrew McCutchen: .219
Matt Diaz: .208
Pedro Alvarez: .200
Ronny Cedeno: .192
Ugly. It's hard to believe that the Pirates ended up only 3 games under .500 with team batting like that. Chances are that most of those guys will turn it around and have a lot more success throughout the rest of the season, which could mean really good things for the team if they keep pitching like they have been.
So the first month was probably the opposite of what you had expected. We all said that the Pirates would score a good amount of runs but the pitching wouldn't be good enough to win us a lot of games. Well it's been the opposite, the pitching has been good enough to be a winning team, but the offense hasn't followed their lead, which led to another losing month for this Pirates team. The good news it that the offense is going to get better, and if the pitching can keep up their solid start to the season, this team could definitely hang around the .500 mark for the long haul.
Morton Grinds It Out, Pirates 8 Rockies 4
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The Pittsburgh Pirates won another road series this weekend against the Colorado Rockies, taking the tail ends of the 3-game set. The Pirates have now won 4 road series, which matches their total from the entire 2010 season.
Charlie Morton got his 3rd win of the season today, defeating Ubaldo Jimenez. Morton didn't have his best stuff today and struggled with location. He walked 5 batters in only 5.1 innings pitched and gave up 4 earned runs (only 2 of which he was completely responsible for as Michael Crotta couldn't erase the inherited runners in the 6th) and struck out only 1. Morton was in trouble a handful of times but did enough to limit the damage and get his team a win. It was another encouraging start for Morton, it's really good to see a Pirates pitcher get a win even when he doesn't pitch all that well.
The bullpen had another spectacular day, going 3.2 scoreless innings. You can't say enough about how well those guys have been performing lately. Chris Resop and Jose Veras have been absolute money in the late innings, which is especially important with the recent injury to Evan Meek. It's good to see those guys play well, it was a major question mark heading into this season.
The big story of today was the offense. This team was scoring less than 3.5 runs per game before today, and they put up an 8 spot on a pitching staff featuring one of the game's best pitchers. The top performer was Xavier Paul, who was making his first start as a Pirate. Paul got his first Pirate hit with a 2-run triple in the 2nd inning, and added another hit later on in the game. Garrett Jones has been quietly effective so far this year, he added 2 more hits and 3 more RBI to his totals this year and is now hitting .278 on the year. Lyle Overbay busted out of his slump with 2 hits, and Pedro Alvarez showed more positive signs with 2 hits of his own.
There's another post coming up in just a little bit that will take an extensive look at the Pirates performance in April, but for now here's the updated offense and starting pitching stats:
Charlie Morton got his 3rd win of the season today, defeating Ubaldo Jimenez. Morton didn't have his best stuff today and struggled with location. He walked 5 batters in only 5.1 innings pitched and gave up 4 earned runs (only 2 of which he was completely responsible for as Michael Crotta couldn't erase the inherited runners in the 6th) and struck out only 1. Morton was in trouble a handful of times but did enough to limit the damage and get his team a win. It was another encouraging start for Morton, it's really good to see a Pirates pitcher get a win even when he doesn't pitch all that well.
The bullpen had another spectacular day, going 3.2 scoreless innings. You can't say enough about how well those guys have been performing lately. Chris Resop and Jose Veras have been absolute money in the late innings, which is especially important with the recent injury to Evan Meek. It's good to see those guys play well, it was a major question mark heading into this season.
The big story of today was the offense. This team was scoring less than 3.5 runs per game before today, and they put up an 8 spot on a pitching staff featuring one of the game's best pitchers. The top performer was Xavier Paul, who was making his first start as a Pirate. Paul got his first Pirate hit with a 2-run triple in the 2nd inning, and added another hit later on in the game. Garrett Jones has been quietly effective so far this year, he added 2 more hits and 3 more RBI to his totals this year and is now hitting .278 on the year. Lyle Overbay busted out of his slump with 2 hits, and Pedro Alvarez showed more positive signs with 2 hits of his own.
There's another post coming up in just a little bit that will take an extensive look at the Pirates performance in April, but for now here's the updated offense and starting pitching stats:
Pirates vs. Rockies, Game 28
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Pittsburgh Pirates (12-15) vs. Colorado Rockies (17-8)
3:10 at Coors Field
Charlie Morton (2-1, 3.00) vs. Ubaldo Jimenez (3-1, 6.75)
Lineups:
| Pirates Lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen CF 2. Xavier Paul LF 3. Garrett Jones RF 4. Neil Walker 2B 5. Lyle Overbay 1B 6. Ryan Doumit C 7. Pedro Alvarez 3B 8. Ronny Cedeno SS 9. Charlie Morton SP |
Rockies Lineup: 1. Dexter Fowler CF 2. Alfredo Amezaga 2B 3. Todd Helton 1B 4. Troy Tulowitzki SS 5. Carlos Gonzalez LF 6. Seth Smith RF 7. Jose Lopez 3B 8. Chris Iannetta C 9. Ubaldo Jimenez SP |
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