2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - First Basemen Rankings

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2
It's time to start thinking about fantasy baseball again, and we've got you covered here at The "Mc" Effect. Today we're talking first basemen. Below you will find the links to previous posts and then my rankings, followed by an individual breakdown of each player.


#1 Albert Pujols
This is another no-brainer number one guy. Pujols is the best hitter in the game and will be the #1 overall pick in most drafts. He hit .312 in a 'down year' for batting average, but he hit 42 bombs and drove in 118, both of which led the National League. All of his numbers shown here dropped from his career averages, but not enough to raise any bit of worry about his production. If you have the first overall pick, this is the guy you want.

#2 Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera had a big year in 2010 and further solidified his standing as one of the top hitters in the game. His raised his batting average from his career average by 15 points last season, and also showed major improvement in ISO. His line drive percentage fell a little bit, which shows that the improved ISO had some luck to it, but not really anything to push you away from drafting him. Cabrera will be the #2 pick in a lot of drafts this year, and I don't have a problem with that.

#3 Joey Votto
Votto was the National League MVP last year after a season where he hit .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBI. He is an interesting guy to look at in this context however. We can see that his line drive percentage was actually lower than his career average, which you wouldn't expect, but his HR/FB% was significantly higher. That suggests that he probably didn't hit the ball well enough to warrant the 37 bombs, and we should expect less than that from his this year. He's been a great hitter every year though, and he's still only 27 years old, so I fully expect him to be a top 3 fantasy baseball first baseman this year. Don't expect him to be in MVP contention again, but he'll be really solid. He's my last guy in the top tier of first basemen, so if Pujols and Cabrera are gone, you'd be wise to select Votto in round 2 or 3.

#4 Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez has played his entire career in a very tough Petco Park, now he gets to go play ball at Fenway 81 times a year, which means good things for his owners. Gonzalez had a good season in 2010, with a solid .298 average and a 21.1 LD%. His HR/FB were have always been low because of Petco Park, so that number will almost certainly get higher after his trade to Boston. That means more home runs and more RBI for Gonzalez. He almost sneaked in the top-tier, so he's a great option if you miss out on the top 3.

#5 Mark Teixeira
Teixeira was looked at as a first round pick in a lot of drafts last year, but that's not the case this year. 2010 was pretty rough on Teixeira, he had an absolutely putrid start to the season but had some hot streaks which brought his numbers up. He finished the year with an ugly .256 batting average, 30 points lower than his career average. However, he did belt 33 homers, thanks in part to a hitter-friendly Yankee stadium. His ISO and HR/FB weren't all that impressive, however, which is strange. My guess is that the HR/FB goes up just because of Yankees Stadium, and he hits 30 homers again, easily. Teixeira also had an extremely low BABIP, so his average should come up in 2011 as well. He's a great value pick this year, you could be getting 1st-2nd round numbers for a 3rd-4th round pick.

#6 Kevin Youkilis
"The Greek God of Walks" missed some time to injury in 2010, which limited him to only 102 games. He hit 19 home runs in that time and was a disappointment for fantasy owners who drafted him for power. His .307 batting average was very pleasant, and he posted another good OBP year with a mark of .411. Youkilis now has Carl Crawford and the aforementioned Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup, which should lead to some increased RBI opportunities. Despite the lack of home runs, Youkilis' ISO went up from his career average, so I would expect some serious improvement in the power categories. Youkilis is a great guy to draft this year, and much like Teixeira, he could turn into a round 3-4 steal.

#7 Prince Fielder
Fielder is another interesting player. He had his struggles last year and posted another bad batting average of .261. He hit 32 homers, but that wasn't a lot for his owners that drafted him in the 1st or 2nd round looking for 40 bombs and 120+ RBI. It was a disappointing season for Fielder, but I don't expect it to be that bad again in 2011. I don't think he'll ever replicate his 46 HR, 141 RBI season that he had in 2009, which is why he comes in at #7 here. Fielder's 2010 sabermetric numbers weren't far off from his career average, which shows me even more that his 2009 season was flukish. He just recently got a 1-year contract, so he has some incentive to post more great numbers to get himself some more cash next offseason. That said, I wouldn't even consider Fielder until all of the above guys are taken.

#8 Ryan Howard
Every year Howard is in the league, it becomes more clear that you know exactly what you're going to get from him every year. If he stays healthy, you can take 35+ HR and 100+ RBI to the bank. However, he's not going to help your batting average and he's gonna strike out a ton. Last year he missed some time and played 143 games. He hit only 31 bombs and drove in only 108. That's why he comes in pretty low on the first basemen ranks here. His BABIP, OBP, and LD% were on line with his career averages, but he struggled mightily in HR/FB and ISO. Bad luck was definitely a part of Howard's 2010 season, and he should rebound somewhat. Don't expect a good batting average, but he'll get you those 35 homers and 100 RBI.

#9 Kendry Morales
If you watched baseball consistently last year, you probably saw Morales jumping into a swarm of his teammates at home plate after a walk-off home run, only to fall to the ground in pain after injuring his leg, an injury which ended his season very early. If you owned Morales, you probably wanted to cry after seeing it. He was a guy that was drafted in the middle rounds, but was playing like an upper-round guy. He hit .290 with 11 HR in his first 51 games before the injury, on pace for a huge year. After the injury a lot of people forgot about that, which could turn him into quite a steal. You can't draw much from his 2010 numbers here, because of the small sample size, but if you're one of those people that goes for value picks and grabs a catcher, a second baseman, a shortstop, and some pitchers early in the draft, Morales could be a great guy to get after the rest of the first basemen have been taken. First base is incredibly deep this year, so it would be pretty wise to wait awhile and then nab a guy like Morales to fill the first base spot on your team. There's no reason why Morales can't post really solid numbers this year.

#10 Adam Dunn
Dunn has been in the league forever, but he just keeps hitting home runs. From 2005 through 2008, he hit 40 home runs every year. The last 2 years he has hit 38. He's not exactly falling off with age. The reason Dunn gets drafted so late is because of the batting average. Last year he hit .260, which is 10 points higher than his career average. His BABIP was way up, so the average might fall down again in 2011, but the power is real. If he plays the whole year, there's not a better bet for 35 home runs in the game. He's a good guy to get if you draft a lot of high batting average guys early in the draft and you can afford to take his strikeouts and 0-4 days.

#11 Billy Butler
Butler is a guy we don't know that much about. He's been in the league since 2007, but has been flying under the radar playing in Kansas City. Last year he kind of burst onto the scene a little bit with a .318 batting average. However, he didn't even get to 20 HR, which is something that is almost required for a fantasy first baseman. He's young and improved power would not be a surprise at all, but he's not a guy that's going to swat 30 homers a year. His sabermetrics were nearly right on with his career averages in 2010, so there's no reason to believe he'll fall off or improve besides age and team improvement, and both of those factors are on his side. He's not a guy you want starting on your team, but he's a good utility or back-up option with pretty nice upside.

#12 Justin Morneau
Morneau has been putting up great numbers since 2004, but he is now 30 years old and has become somewhat of an injury risk. Last year he played only 81 games and hit 18 homers. He was really good in those games, but the fact that he's aging and an injury risk really takes him out of the ranks of a fantasy starter at the first base position. Again, he's a good guy to have as a utility or back-up, but his days of 30 HR and 100 RBI with a .270+ batting average seem to be over. I could be wrong, and he could turn into a mid-round steal, but I probably won't be drafting him.

#13 Buster Posey
We talked about Posey in the catchers post, because that is where you're going to be drafting him. He does have first base eligibility though, so I had to put him on this list. We know that Posey can put up fantastic numbers for a catcher at the plate, but if you have him in your first base slot with a crappy offensive catcher, his value is a lessened. He'll probably hit 25+ HR and hit near .300 in 2011, but be smart and take those numbers from the catcher slot and get another guy to fill in for first base. 25 HR and .300 is fantastic for a catcher, but just average for a first baseman.

#14 Paul Konerko
Konerko was a huge surprise in 2010. He came into the season at 34 years old and everyone expected him to fall off. However, he hit 39 homers with a .312 batting average, numbers that made his owners incredibly happy. However, there's reason to believe he won't repeat anything like those numbers in 2011. His BABIP was very high, his ISO was very high, and his LD% went down. Those three things mixed means he was pretty fortunate. At 35 years old, Konerko should only be used as a back-up first baseman.

#15 Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez was very solid for the Marlins in 2010. However, when you look at the numbers, he's not all that great of a fantasy player. He only hit .273, which isn't bad but it's disappointing when you see that he didn't even reach 20 HRs and he played first base. His BABIP was right at the average spot, so I would expect another .270+ average season for him, but the power just isn't there enough to make me think about making him anything but a back-up. He's also not as young as you might think, he'll be 27 until September, so he doesn't have the upside that a 24-25 year old 2nd season player might have.

#16 Aubrey Huff
At the age of 34, Huff had a career year. That's not normal. Everything went right for the Giants in 2010, and Huff was no exception. His .216 ISO was well higher than his career average, and well, I just don't see him putting up good numbers again in 2011. If you're looking at another first baseman in the late rounds, go with somebody younger with more upside than Huff.

#17 Carlos Pena
Pena was unbelievably bad for the Rays in 2010. He has never hit for good batting average, but .196 is just ridiculous. He hit 28 homers, which was 11 less than he hit in 2009. He's 33 years old, so this wasn't a surprise (the magnitude of it may have been, but not the decline in general). The Cubs lost their old, washed up first baseman to free agency, so they decided to get another one in Pena. Wrigley isn't a bad place to hit, and Pena should improve on his 2010 numbers, but that's not saying much at all. If you like a guy that hits .220 with no speed and no upside, draft this guy, otherwise, use your pick elsewhere.

#18 Ike Davis
Davis was one of the better young players in the National League in 2010, hitting 19 homers and driving in 71. However, he wasn't a good fantasy player. His batting average is always going to be low, and unless he develops serious 30 HR power potential, there's no reason to have him on your fantasy team. He's on the list because he's young enough to improve and give us a reason to draft him, but it's not this year.

#19 Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer struggled in 2010, and my guess it was because he's 32 years old. He had a normal batting average year, but the power almost disappeared. He hit 14 homers in 157 games, which is terrible for a fantasy first baseman. He has outfield eligibility too, so that might be a reason to draft him in the latest rounds, but he's really not a guy you should think about as anything but a depth guy to fill in for off days or injuries. I don't see him falling off the table completely like Pena did last year, you pretty much know what you're getting from him, but you know that it's not good. Again, draft a guy with more upside before you draft Cuddyer.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Catcher Rankings

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2
We're kicking off the fantasy baseball position-by-position breakdown, and we're gonna start with the catchers.
So let's get to it - here's my top 14 catchers for the 2011 season, followed by a player-by-player breakdown.


#1 Joe Mauer
This is a no-brainer. Mauer is not only one the best offensive catchers in the league, he is one of the best offensive players in the league. He struggled with the power numbers last year, which could be attributed to him missing some time along with a seemingly unlucky 6.7% HR/FB ratio. His line drive percentage was even higher than his career average and that translated into another outstanding .327 batting average along with a .402 OBP. He had another high BABIP, but that has been common ground for Mauer with how well he strokes the ball. Mauer gives you outstanding offense from a position where that just doesn't happen.

#2 Victor Martinez
Martinez had a pretty solid season in 2010, posting numbers right around his career averages in almost every category. His line drive percentage went down slightly while his ISO went up, which shows that he was at least a little bit lucky with hitting gaps and hitting the ball out of the ballpark, but there's nothing to be alarmed bout here. He is 33 years old, so he is at the point where we should expect his numbers to start falling. However, I don't think they'll fall significantly this year, and if he can stay healthy (which he didn't last year), he will be a top 3 fantasy catcher, easily.

#3 Buster Posey
There wasn't too many bigger stories in 2010 than this kid. He burst onto the seasons and helped the Giants win the World Series. Posey had an impressive .200 ISO and a solid 18.4 LD% to accompany his 18 home runs in the 108 games he played. He has huge power potential and will be playing a lot at first base this year, which will help him stay healthy. I seriously considered putting him above Martinez on this list, but I'll have to see him continue to put up numbers before he gets there. Posey is a stud, and there's a pretty significant drop-off after him, so if you don't get Mauer or Martinez, I would consider grabbing Posey to boost your team with offense from the catcher position.

#4 Brian McCann
McCann has been considered the best hitting catchers in the National League for the last couple of years, but last year was pretty ugly. His .269 average was 20 points lower than his career average, despite having an average .297 BABIP. His isolated power dropped significantly while his line drive percentage stayed about the same, which could suggest that some bad luck hurt him. McCann had some issues with LASIK eye surgery that could be worked out by this year, and at the age of 27 I expect a major improvement from McCann. I'd still put him outside of the top tier of Mauer, Martinez, and Posey, but he's the next best guy. He should be a very good value pick because of his bad 2010 season, and snagging him in round 4-6 could end up being a very good idea.

#5 Carlos Santana
Santana was a top prospect heading into the 2011 season and started off his career in impressive fashion. He belted 6 homers in 46 games and slugged .467 before suffering a season-ending injury after a tough collision at the plate. As you can see from the numbers, Santana had a very impressive .401 OBP, which was 41 points higher than his batting average, which shows that he was seeing pitches well and working deep into counts, which bodes well for his future. His .207 ISO was higher than almost every other catcher that is going to be mentioned in this post (except the guy coming next), although that was in a very small sample. Santana has the most raw power of any catcher in the league, and being at the ripe age of 25 when the season begins, he has a very bright future. His potential is easily a top 5 fantasy catcher, but for this year I'm putting him in the 2nd tier just because he still has a lot of room for development.

#6 Geovany Soto
Speaking of power hitting catchers, Soto is one of the best. He hit 17 home runs in 105 games last year and slugged .497 with that very high .217 ISO. Soto did hit the ball better in 2010 than he had in his career, with a LD% that was 3.5 percent higher, but his HR/FB and BABIP increased significantly as well, which shows some good fortune. Soto is a decent catcher to get for your team if you miss out on the top 5 guys, but I can definitely see him regressing quite a bit in 2011.

#7 Miguel Montero
Montero was a popular fantasy catcher in the later rounds of last year's drafts. Everybody looked at him as a sleeper guy that had big upside. He showed some really impressive signs early in the year and looked like he was going to have a big year. However he was hampered by injuries and ended up not helping his owners all that much. He played only 85 games and hit 9 home runs. His .266 batting average was right on pace with his career average despite a .318 BABIP. He posted nearly the same numbers as his career averages across the board, so it seems that you know what you're going to get with Montero this year. If he stays healthy, a .270/.330/.450 season with 13-18 home runs would be about where I would put him. Not a great option, but good enough to draft around round 10 or 11 in a 10 man league.

#8 Matt Wieters
A couple of years ago Wieters was getting the sort of attention that Posey and Santana are now, but he hasn't been able to put it together quite yet. He will be 25 this season, so he is still one of the youngest catchers in the game, but there are definitely questions about if he will ever realize his potential. Wieters was below his career averages in most categories last year; that's extra bad because he was expected to make huge strides last year. He has been looked at as a guy with 25-30 HR power, and his mark of 11 last year left his owners frustrated. He was drafted in the mid rounds last year and dropped in a lot of shallower leagues. I personally dropped him for Santana last year, which turned out being a pretty good move until the injury. Wieters still has more upside than most catchers, and could definitely be a huge late round steal, but I wouldn't consider drafting him over the guys already mentioned until he shows us some actual consistent production.

#9 Mike Napoli
Napoli is another catcher with big pop. He has posted big time ISO's in his career, and last year was no exception. 19% of his fly balls went out of the ballpark last year, also a very large number. When Napoli hits the ball, it goes a long ways, however he doesn't hit it very often. His .238 average last year was 13 points lower than his already disappointing career .251 average. He has recently been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, which will probably hurt his RBI numbers, but possibly earn him some more playing time. I wouldn't expect his numbers to fluctuate much just because of this trade, I'd still put him around a .245 average with 20-25 homers, which isn't bad value for where you'll get him.

#10 Kurt Suzuki
Suzuki was another under the radar possible sleeper pick last year, but he disappointed in a big way. He didn't do much well last year, and only played 131 games despite not suffering from serious injury. Suzuki's numbers don't give me any reason to believe he'll get any better. In my opinion the catchers get extremely weak after Napoli, so I highly suggest grabbing one of the aforementioned players so you don't get stuck with someone like Suzuki who will kill you all year long.

#11 Chris Iannetta
Iannetta was one of the biggest catching disappointments in baseball last year. He played only 61 games and hit a putrid .197 in those games. He showed some power with 9 home runs and a .186 ISO, but his 13.5 line drive percentage really shows you how bad he was last year. I really don't expect much from Iannetta, he won't be on any of my teams.

#12 Carlos Ruiz
Ruiz was a pleasant surprise for players that owned him last year, at the age of 31 he posted the best season of his career with a .302 average and a .400 OBP with 8 home runs. He played only 121 games but was very effective in those games. His average was 42 points higher than his career average and his BABIP was 55 points higher. Since Ruiz is now 32 years old, those improvements were certainly not expected and he should regress quite a bit this year. I think he will be drafted way to high this year to even consider taking him.

#13 Yadier Molina
Molina is a great catcher, but not a great option for fantasy. He had a very normal season last year, all of his numbers were nearly identical to his career averages. He has no power but will at times go on good batting average streaks, which will be negated by equally bad streaks. Molina is in a contract year this year, so that might translate into some improved offensive numbers, but I can't see him doing enough to warrant being a relevant fantasy option.

#14 Jorge Posada
Posada is 39 years old, had a really bad season in 2010, and is going to lose major playing time to the newly acquired Russell Martin. His HR/FB ratio nearly doubled his career average in 2010, and at his age that means that I can practically guarantee that he will not come near the 18 home runs he hit last year. I see no reason to draft Jorge Posada for any reason except being a back-up.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Kick Off - Offense

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2

Fantasy baseball is one of my favorite parts of the MLB season. I'm an avid player and a pretty successful one for that matter. I've won my league 2 years in a row now and I have some strategies I use every year to help me out. If you read this blog consistently, you know that I'm really into sabermetrics and more in depth, predictive statistics. Every year I take a look at players and their performance in certain sabermetric categories and use that information to decide whom I want for my team. It may be just luck, but I've found success with some of these things, and this year I'm going to share some of my ideas with everyone.

For this opening post, I'm just going to explain the statistics I use. Here's the 6 stats I'm using in my analysis:

Batting Average (AVG): Everyone knows what batting average is. It's not a perfect statistic by any means, and a lot of luck and random chance go into it, which explains why different players will have huge fluctuations in their averages from year-to-year. It is simply the percent of times that a hitter gets a hit for all of their at bats (which excludes walks, hit by pitches, and sacrifices). Batting average is one of the most looked at and easily available statistics out there, so this is really just a stat to ease us into this process and give everyone a shallow, yet clear look at how successful hitters are.

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP): For hitters, BABIP looks at all the balls the batter put in play that year, excluding home runs, and finds the percentage of the balls that went for a hit. This statistic tries to show us how lucky a hitter was with his contact. Baseball is a game of inches and a microsecond of difference during contact with the ball can change a hit into an out. Because of this, luck is a huge factor in batting averages. A hitter can make extremely weak contact and get a bloop hit, and then next time square a ball up and crush it, but right at a fielder and record an out. There's a ton of random chance that goes into the difference of a hit and an out, so BABIP tries to show you how lucky they were. An average BABIP is about .300, so if a hitter has a significantly higher number than that, it shows that they were "luckier" than the average major league hitter, and that if there luck regresses to average in the next sample size, there batting average will be higher (and vice versa).

On-Base Percentage (OBP): On-Base Percentage simply looks at all of a hitters plate appearances in a sample size, and finds the percentage of times that hitter reached base in the sample. This is a major indicator for how successful a young player can be in the major leagues. If a player has a significantly higher OBP than AVG, it shows that they are walking a lot, which shows good pitch recognition and patience in the hitter, which always results into good things. Also, as the hitter gets into deeper counts, they are more likely to get more favorable pitches to hit. If you're looking at a young, developing hitter, it is certainly helpful to look at his OBP numbers to determine how he will perform in future years.

Isolated Power (ISO): This one is a little bit more complicated. Isolated Power is a measure of a hitter's raw power, in terms of extra bases per at bat. The formula for it is ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB. As you can tell from that, singles hitters are not going to have a high ISO. The more doubles, triples, and home runs a batter hit, the higher his ISO will be. We can use this statistic to work with the general home run and RBI numbers to determine what kind of power we can expect from a player. Those home runs and RBIs are crucial in most fantasy baseball leagues, but they can fluctuate from year-to-year pretty easily, especially RBI. ISO gives us a truer feel for how effective a hitter is at driving the ball to gaps or over the fences.

Line-Drive Percentage (LD%): This one isn't as popular a statistic as the other ones mentioned, but it's a favorite of mine. This shows you the percentage of times a hitter hit a "line drive" per times he made contact. The term "line drive" is somewhat debatable, but this stat is mainly useful for showing us how often a hitter made solid contact. Good contact can turn into an out very easily, which goes down into the scorebook the same way a weak pop-up would, but hits and outs are not a factor in line-drive percentage, so we can use it to see how well the hitter sees and swings at pitches. If a hitter has a higher than average line-drive percentage but an average or below average batting average, we can say that that hitter was unlucky in that sample and we can fairly expect them to improve in batting average, among other more well-known categories.

Home Runs per Fly Balls Hit (HR/FB): HR/FB is the ratio of how many home runs a batter hits per fly ball he hits. This statistic isn't the greatest way to predict future power numbers for a hitter, but it is useful in the way I am going to use it. Players that play in home-run friendly ballparks are likely to have higher HR/FB percentages, so you have to account for that. This statistic will be used in this study to compare a players 2010 HR/FB ratio to his career average HR/FB ratio. So if a player had a significantly higher ratio in 2010 than he has the rest of his career, we can suspect that there was luck involved and we won't be surprised to see his power numbers fall the next year, and vice versa.

So those are the statistics. Now let's talk about how we're going to use them.

For every player involved, I am compiling his 2010 numbers in those 6 categories and comparing them to his career averages in those same categories. This way we can see who over-performed and who under-performed last season. Age is a huge factor when considering this, because a player in his mid-20's will be expected to improve, while a player in his late 20's to 30's will usually stay the same or get worse.

So we're going to try and use this comparison of numbers accompanied with the age of the players to intellectually predict whether the player will get better or get worse statistically in the 2011 season.

For a quick example, we'll take a look at "player x":

Player X, 32 years old:
2010 Season: .302 AVG, .335 BABIP, .400 OBP, .146 ISO, 20.1 LD%, 7.2% HR/FB
Career Average: .260 AVG, .280 BABIP, .353 OBP, .136 ISO, 18.5 LD%, 6.8% HR/FB

From these numbers we can draw the following conclusions:

• Player X had a very above-average 2010 season.
• Player X is at the age where he should be done improving, which makes us take his improvement much lighter.
• Player X had a very high BABIP in 2010, 55 points higher than his career average. That is not likely to happen again, so we can expect his batting average to drop significantly in 2011.
• Player X posted pretty average power numbers in 2010 (for himself). His ISO, LD%, and HR/FB were all a little bit higher than his career averages, but really not by much, which shows that most of his improvement in batting average came from singles.
• Player X will almost more likely than not have a worse 2011 season than he had in 2010.
Player X is Carlos Ruiz. So there's a little sneak peak. Anyways, you can draw many different conclusions from different statistic samples. It's not a fool-proof method by any stretch, and I do not consider myself an expert in sabermetrics. I may not be the greatest at explaining all of my thought processes, but I will do my best and hopefully I can provide some interesting and helpful insight. The series will kick-off in the next day or two, we'll start by looking at and ranking my top 15 catchers. Be sure to check back for it.

Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, Wrapping It Up

I'm finishing up my "Early Expectations - Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation Series" tonight. Here's the previous installments:

Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here

As you may have noticed, neither Scott Olsen nor Jeff Karstens were included in this series. That shows how little of a factor I think either of these two will be in the rotation this year. I do expect one or both of them to make a handful of starts this year, but that to me isn't worth it. My hope is that neither of them will have to make a start, because that would mean that the 5 talked about in this series will have been effective enough to stay in the rotation, or at least stayed in there long enough to be replaced by Rudy Owens or Bryan Morris in June or July. So we're going to wrap it all up and give some expectations for the rotation as a whole.

First, here's what I predicted for each pitcher, in order of expected ERA's.

James McDonald: 3.60 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Ross Ohlendorf: 4.20 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Kevin Correia: 4.45 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Charlie Morton: 4.70 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Paul Maholm: 4.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

All of those ERA's averaged out bring those 5 starters to a 4.34 ERA. Of course that's not an accurate way of measuring that, because if you're going to average pitchers out you'd have to weigh in the innings pitched, since a pitcher with more innings pitched would have a bigger impact on the over all average ERA. But this works just for speculation. Last year's starters average ERA was 5.28, so 4.34 would be a pretty good improvement. This might be somewhat optimistic, and the Pirates pitching usually finds a way to do well worse than expected, so if I had to guess I'd say the team ERA will be higher than my clumsily arrived at 4.34 number.

So from my analysis, James McDonald is going to lead this rotation, and it won't be close. I have him at 3.60 ERA with 8.2 K/9, which is significantly better than everyone else on the staff. It's pretty close after Ohlendorf with Correia, Morton, and Maholm all having pretty low expectations in my mind. Morton and Correia have the ability to outdo my expectations, but I'm really low on Maholm this year. I don't think McDonald could do much better than the numbers I gave him, and he'll probably do worse. The Pirates infield is not going to be good, so that isn't going to help the staff. I did factor that in however, as you can see every single pitcher has a lower FIP than ERA.

Now these 5 are certainly not going to be making all the starts for the Pirates this year. I expect Rudy Owens and Bryan Morris to make their big league debuts this summer, as well as Justin Wilson having a pretty decent shot at it. Owens is the guy I have the most confidence in, just because of his superior control. If you can locate your pitches, you can make it in the majors even with average stuff, which he has. Morris has better stuff but still a lot of issues to work out with his location and pitch selection. It's optimistic to seeing him being a solid force in the rotation in 2011, but I think he'll do well enough in AAA to earn a call-up, especially because of the thinness of what will be in the major leagues.

When I started this series, the Pirates were still in pursuit of Carl Pavano, Jeff Francis, and a couple other starters, but both of those guys have been signed and the Pirates will have to go into 2011 with what they have right now.

It's not going to be pretty. This isn't a playoff team by any stretch of the rotation. I am honestly expecting the offense to have its best season since the Brian Giles days. The tools on this unit are exciting, but it is by no means a guarantee that they are going to produce at the rate they are capable of. It's still a really young team and mistakes are going to be common. However, if the Pirates want to become near respectable (80-85 wins), this pitching staff is going to have to perform out of its mind.

So there you have it. I'm going to be starting up a little fantasy baseball analysis in the next week or so, so check back for that if you're into that stuff.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2

Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, Charlie Morton

We're plugging away to finish up this Pittsburgh Pirates Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation series, and today we'll take a look at Charlie Morton. Check out the previous installments:

Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here

Charlie Morton's 2010 season went down in the history books as one of the worst seasons to ever be had by a Pirates pitcher. Morton got shelled time after time in the first few months of the season before being demoted to Indianapolis. Here are the numbers, try not to gag:



If you're sick to your stomach now, you have fair reason. The 7.57 ERA is remarkably awful, and the 12.7 hits per nine innings is right there with it. It would be incredibly difficult to post a higher FIP than ERA when you're ERA is over seven and a half, so the FIP being 2 runs lower really isn't anything to get excited about. If we're trying to be positive about 2010, you can look at the walk rate and see that it wasn't awful. Of course I'd rather have Morton walk a bunch of batters than give up a bunch of home runs (he gave up 1.7 home runs per nine innings last year, another remarkably bad number). This situation isn't without some positives however. After Morton was called back up to the big leagues in late August, he posted a 5.45 ERA in 7 starts. Alright, 5.45 isn't good either, but there were serious signs of improvement. He was locating his pitches better and striking out more batters. He also only gave up 3 home runs in his 36.1 innings (.74 HR/9). Small sample - yes, improvement worthy of another shot in 2011 - probably not. However, the Pirates are desperate for pitching, and there are things about Morton that warrant him getting another look, mainly because of the circumstances.

All Pirates fans know what the analysts say about Morton - he has great stuff but just can't put up good numbers. He leaves too many pitches over the heart of the plate and has become rather predictable. There is very little confidence with Morton and he seems to be a headcase. However, when you look at the pitch f/x for Morton, you see that his stuff really isn't that great, either.




In terms of velocity, Morton is above average, but not great. Last year his 2-seam fastball (FT) averaged 92.2 mph on the gun, while the league average was 90.29 mph. Morton's 4-seamer clocked in at 93.2 compared to a league average of 92.08. When you watch him it seems like his fastballs have a lot of movement on them, although the numbers don't show his fastball movement to be much above league average.

The other thing we can see from that first chart is that Morton was really a 3-pitch pitcher in 2010, with 2 of those being fastballs. He threw his changeup only 127 times (a mere 9% of the time), and his slider only 91 times (around 6% of the time). Hitters were sitting on the fastball and crushing it. They were swinging at a Morton 2-seamer 9% more often than they would the average pitcher, and they were putting it in play 4% more often than they would off the league average pitcher.

Morton's whiff rates were not impressive at all, he was either below the league average or just slightly above with all his pitches. His movement numbers were much of the same.

When you turn on your TV this spring/summer and watch a Pirate game with Charlie Morton on the mound, you're gonna hear about the good stuff Morton has. However, I'm not really convinced that that is even true. Sure, compared to the rest of the pitching staff, he has good stuff. However, when you compare him to the rest of the league, there's not much to write home about. His 2010 pitch selection was terrible and his execution was even worse. You can't put the blame fully on him for the selection, the coaching certainly hasn't helped him one bit so far, which could change since Joe Kerrigan is now gone. However, I wouldn't cross my fingers.

Despite all the negativity in this post, Morton deserves another chance in the 2011 rotation. Why? Because we don't have anybody else better. His stuff is better than what Scott Olsen or Jeff Karstens offers, and he is still young. Let's just hope that his confidence isn't completely shattered and he can start to work out the mental issues and let his ability turn him into the #4 starter that he has always dreamed of being.

2011 Prediction: 4.70 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, Kevin Correia

It's part 5 of my Pittsburgh Pirates Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation series, today's installment features the newly acquired Kevin Correia. Here's the other parts:

Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here

2010 was a tough year for Kevin Correia. He started out decently and then fell apart at the end of the year after a tragic death in his family. Team officials said that he could never get his mind fully back on baseball after all that happened, and that is completely understandable. The Padres were in serious playoff contention, so they could not afford to let Correia make a bunch of starts without his mind fully on it, so his major league season was cut short, not making a start in the final 2 months of the season. Here's his numbers from his time in the majors last year:



Correia had a 5.40 ERA, which was not at all what anybody was expecting after he posted a 3.91 in 33 starts in 2009. However the 4.71 FIP shows that he wasn't as bad as the ERA suggests. 4.71 still isn't a very good number, but it is encouraging to know that his performance alone was better than the numbers show. He struggled a little with control at times, but his strikeout rate was one of the best he's posted in his career. He's not an overpowering pitcher, but he has enough stuff to shut down teams from time to time. Let's take a closer look at the pitches he throws:




You can see from these numbers that he does not have very good velocity. His fastball sits at 90mph, while the league average is about 92. His favorite pitch is the slider, which he threw 32.5% of the time in 2010. That slider is around 3 miles an hour faster than the league average slider, and also has above average movement. He throws the slider for a strike 63.2% of the time and it is put in play 20.1% of the time. The strike percentage there is right around average, but his whiff rate with the slider is 4% lower than average. The low whiff rate isn't uncommon for Correia, he is right around or below league average on every pitch but the 2-seam fastball.

All together Correia is a very average big league pitcher. He isn't a strikeout guy, and he relies a lot on the groundball (23.48% of his at bats result in a groundout). With the Pirates infield, that isn't necessarily a good thing. However, the infield should improve this year and I really expect Correia to bounce back from his less than stellar 2010 season.

Correia will be the #4 starter for the Pirates in 2011 but I expect him to pitch better than Paul Maholm. If he is pitching well around the trade deadline, and the Pirates are ready to call up Rudy Owens or Bryan Morris, Correia could definitely be a guy the Pirates look to shop around to bring in some more long-term help. Should be an interesting season for Correia, and I am looking forward to seeing him pitch.

2011 Prediction: 4.45 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, Paul Maholm

Part 4 of my Pittsburgh Pirates Early Expectations series. I've been taking close looks at the Pirates starters 2010 performances and seeing how they project to perform in 2011. Today we feature Paul Maholm.

Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here

Paul Maholm came into the 2010 season looking to be one of the Pirates most consistent starters. He was coming off a couple decent seasons where he posted 3.71 and 4.44 ERAs, respectively. However, 2010 wasn't kind to Maholm, and he posted the following, rather disappointing, numbers:



The FIP shows that Maholm was hurt by his defense, and he actually pitched pretty well at times. His K/BB ratio wasn't terrible but could have been much better. Maholm really pitched like a #4 starter in 2010 when the Pirates really needed him to be a 2-3. There have been rumors about trades involving Maholm, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen (at least before the season starts) and he should go into the season as the Pirates #3 starter. Here's Maholm's pitch f/x from last year:





Maholm is a very, very hittable pitcher. All of his pitches except the slider are below average in terms of whiff rate. He does do pretty well at throwing strikes, although sometimes that can hurt him as he just lays them in there too often at times. Maholm isn't a strikeout pitcher and relies heavily on the defense to help him out, which didn't happen last year. His stuff isn't getting any better, and he will probably just get worse before he improves. It's not really looking good for Maholm, which explains why the Pirates are trying to shop him.

For the 2011 season I would expect Maholm to put up numbers similar to 2010. Guys like James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf have the ability to improve, but I don't see this ability with Maholm. His stuff is just too hittable and he has been in the big leagues too long to warrant anyone predicting major improvement. Here's my predictions for Maholm in 2011.

2011 Prediction: 4.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

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Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, Ross Ohlendorf

Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here

In my second installment of the "Early Expectations - Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation" series, I talked about 2010's biggest positive, James McDonald. For my 3rd post of the series, I will be talking about 2009's biggest positive - Ross Ohlendorf.

Here's what Ross did in 2010:


It wasn't the best year for Ohlendorf - he really didn't improve, but he wasn't terrible either. The 4.07 ERA was the 2nd best any Pirates starter posted, behind McDonald. The FIP shows that he was a little bit lucky, and he walked a whole batter more per nine innings than he did in 2009. However, he struck out another batter per nine innings and continued to show the ability to improve as the season goes on.

If the Pirates want to compete in the next few years, Ross Ohlendorf is going to have be a huge part of it. His stuff isn't stellar, but he's a workhorse who can go out and give 6-7 strong innings more often than not. Here's a look at his pitch f/x:



(FF = 4-seam fastball, FT = 2-seam fastball)

When you take a look at the big league averages for Ross's main pitches, you see that he's not all that special in anything. He is right around or below average with almost every single pitch, the only exception being the curveball. The big league average whiff rate on a curveball is 11.63%; Ross posted a 17.9% rate in 2010. He didn't throw the pitch very often, which kept hitters not expecting it and bolstered that number quite a bit. If he would've thrown it more it wouldn't have come as so much of a surprise and hitters would be used to seeing it and that number would have fallen significantly. However, when Ross did use his curveball, it was a plus-plus pitch.

Ohlendorf will be number 2 in the rotation at the beginning of the year. Unfortunately, that's kind of a sad thing to say. When compared to other #2 starters in the league, Ross looks like a minor leaguer. That said, Ohlendorf is definitely a major league pitcher with #3 upside. He was held back by injuries last year, so it'll be interesting to see what he can do in 2011 if he stays fully healthy.

Ross isn't an easy guy to predict, but I'll give it my best shot here. The ERA to FIP comparisons showed that his raw numbers are pretty close to his actual performance. Nobody should expect Ohlendorf to have an ERA in the 3's, but it's not ridiculous to hope for. In 2009, he posted a 3.92 ERA, which was greatly helped by the 3.35 ERA and .246 batting average against he posted in the 2nd half of that season. The guy is never going to put up numbers like that over a full year, so the 4.07 ERA he posted last year is pretty acceptable.

Ohlendorf's strikeout rate increased in 2010, and he'll have to keep raising it if he wants to be real successful with the infield the Pirates are going to be fielding in 2011.

2011 Prediction: 4.20 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

The "Mc" Effect Podcasting: 2011 Milwaukee Brewers Preview