The biggest question the Pirates have coming into the offseason is who will be playing catcher for the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates? Rod Barajas will not be brought back, and the free agent market is thin at best. It really does not seem like the Pirates would get value for the money they would have to spend on a free agent backstop, which is unfortunate considering how little they got out of the position last year.
Some rumors have come up about a possible trade for the Red Sox Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty hit .222/.288/.454 last year with 25 home runs while playing respectable defense. The offense is inexistent; the Pirates would be lucky to see him outperform Barajas at the dish. The defense would probably be an upgrade, but then again we thought more of Barajas before this year started. Throwing out baserunners may be something that no catcher in the league could have been too successful at last year just because of how poor our pitchers were at stopping the running game. That said, there needs to be improved defense behind the plate.
I don't think it would take much to get Saltalamacchia, but I'm not even sure Bob Nutting wants to fork the cash for the extra letters to stitch his jersey with, so I'm thinking that's not going to happen.
Here's the way I look at it. There's really no way for the Pirates to bring somebody in that can hit as a catcher. They already have two pretty decent defensive options in Michael McKenry and Tony Sanchez that aren't going to cost them much money at all, so why even think about bringing someone else in? Chances are you'll get the same crappy offense from McKenry/Sanchez as you would from bringing someone else in, and Sanchez gives you some offensive upside.
We'll talk about this more later, but for right now I'm thinking the Pirates best bet is to stay with what they have right now and spend their money elsewhere. Just be ready for another disappointing offensive season from Pirates catchers in 2013.
My MVP Case for McCutchen
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Andrew McCutchen is an MVP finalist, as everyone fully expected him to be. At the very worst, McCutchen was the second best player in the National League this year. It's a two man race between him and the Giants' Buster Posey. Now, the Giants had a much better season than the Pirates. Not only did they win their division, they won the World Series. The MVP award is not supposed to consider the playoffs at all, and the voting takes place before the playoffs even begin, so Posey's World Series Grand Slam won't factor into the equation at all, but unfortunately the fact that the Giants made the postseason and the Pirates didn't will have an influence.
Most baseball people are saying that Posey deserves the award, and I don't have much of a problem with that. However, I think McCutchen had a season that should seriously be considered for the award. Here's my case.
The name of the award is Most Valuable Player, not most outstanding player or best player. I think that a lot of the time, voters vote for the best player instead of the most valuable player, there's a huge difference there. Keeping that in mind, here's some statistics:
The below picture shows McCutchen and Posey's individual seasons. I also took out McCutchen and Posey's statistics from their teams final season lines, just to see how much better these players were than the rest of their teams. Here's what it looks like (click to enlarge):
You can see the differentials there. McCutchen raised his team's batting average by nearly 100 points, their on-base percentage by 265 points, and their slugging percentage by 24 points. Posey's differentials don't compare with McCutchen's. I understand that this isn't the fairest way to look at it, because we are basically giving McCutchen credit for being on a really bad team. However, doesn't that prove his value to the team? He took a team that hit .262/.314/.381 without him and got them 79 wins. Posey played on a team with Melky Cabrera who hit .346/.390/.516 until mid August when he was suspended, Pablo Sandoval who hit a very solid .283/.342/.447 in a full season, and a pitching staff who put the National League's 5th best ERA. Posey was certainly very valuable to his team, but I think it's safe to say that the Giants still would have been in contention without him.
You certainly cannot say the same for the Pirates and McCutchen. The only offensive players that you could even argue for having a good offensive season were Pedro Alvarez (.244/.317/.467 with 30 HR), Neil Walker (.280/.342/.426) and Garrett Jones (.274/.317/.516 with 27 HR). The Pirates were average at best on the mound.
Let's take a look at the correlation between these players performances and how their teams did throughout the season. Here's a chart of McCutchen's performance by month, followed by a chart of the Pirates win percentage by month, and then the same for Posey.
McCutchen:
Posey:
Both players had some really great months and some not so great months. McCutchen's worst was August when he hit .252/.347/.346, the Pirates win percentage dipped heavily with that at a .393 winning clip. He also struggled in September, although some of the power came back, Cutch hit .254/.361/.500 and the Pirates won just 25% of their games. In Cutch's best month, July, Cutch hit .446/.510/.739 and the Pirates won 65% of their games. It's a pretty direct correlation. When Cutch was good, the Pirates won, when he wasn't good, the Pirates didn't. Obviously there was more to it than that, but the point remains true.
Posey has some correlation as well, but not nearly as striking. The Giants catcher had his worst month in May when he hit .253/.311/.363, however the Giants still won 52% of their games. Posey had a stellar second half of the season. In July he hit .381/.448/.595 but the Giants had their worst winning month of the year winning just half of their games. Posey kept going and hit .371/.482/.652 in August while his team won 62% of the games and the Giants were even better in September, winning 70% of the time while Posey hit .364/.415/.607. The Giants were still a .500 team while Posey wasn't doing much at the plate.
Again, this a one season sample, and you can't take all that much from what I just said. Just because Posey had bad month and the Giants still won half of their games doesn't mean that they would have been a .500 team with him hitting .250 all season long. That said, this part of the study certainly favors McCutchen for MVP.
A lot of attention goes to Wins Above Replacement when you're looking at the MVP picture. Posey does have the edge in that category (7.2 to 7.0 on baseball-reference and 8.0 to 7.4 on FanGraphs). A lot of that has to do with Posey playing catcher, which automatically helps his WAR number. Defensively, Posey was superior to McCutchen, who was a below average center fielder. All-in-all I don't think it's all that fair to just look at WAR. That number compares these players to a league-average replacement player, and has nothing specifically to do with the teams they play on.
The word "valuable" really is what makes me think that McCutchen should win the award. I personally don't really agree with the award being about value, because that eliminates some players right off the bat. Nobody from a really terrible team could ever be considered for the award, which isn't fair in my eyes. Every player strives to be the best player in the league, not the most valuable. Why not make the most prestigious award in the sport available to all the players, and not just the one on good teams? That's a question for another day. If we're talking straight value, and we are, the edge goes to Cutch in my eyes.
Most baseball people are saying that Posey deserves the award, and I don't have much of a problem with that. However, I think McCutchen had a season that should seriously be considered for the award. Here's my case.
The name of the award is Most Valuable Player, not most outstanding player or best player. I think that a lot of the time, voters vote for the best player instead of the most valuable player, there's a huge difference there. Keeping that in mind, here's some statistics:
The below picture shows McCutchen and Posey's individual seasons. I also took out McCutchen and Posey's statistics from their teams final season lines, just to see how much better these players were than the rest of their teams. Here's what it looks like (click to enlarge):
You can see the differentials there. McCutchen raised his team's batting average by nearly 100 points, their on-base percentage by 265 points, and their slugging percentage by 24 points. Posey's differentials don't compare with McCutchen's. I understand that this isn't the fairest way to look at it, because we are basically giving McCutchen credit for being on a really bad team. However, doesn't that prove his value to the team? He took a team that hit .262/.314/.381 without him and got them 79 wins. Posey played on a team with Melky Cabrera who hit .346/.390/.516 until mid August when he was suspended, Pablo Sandoval who hit a very solid .283/.342/.447 in a full season, and a pitching staff who put the National League's 5th best ERA. Posey was certainly very valuable to his team, but I think it's safe to say that the Giants still would have been in contention without him.
You certainly cannot say the same for the Pirates and McCutchen. The only offensive players that you could even argue for having a good offensive season were Pedro Alvarez (.244/.317/.467 with 30 HR), Neil Walker (.280/.342/.426) and Garrett Jones (.274/.317/.516 with 27 HR). The Pirates were average at best on the mound.
Let's take a look at the correlation between these players performances and how their teams did throughout the season. Here's a chart of McCutchen's performance by month, followed by a chart of the Pirates win percentage by month, and then the same for Posey.
Posey:
Both players had some really great months and some not so great months. McCutchen's worst was August when he hit .252/.347/.346, the Pirates win percentage dipped heavily with that at a .393 winning clip. He also struggled in September, although some of the power came back, Cutch hit .254/.361/.500 and the Pirates won just 25% of their games. In Cutch's best month, July, Cutch hit .446/.510/.739 and the Pirates won 65% of their games. It's a pretty direct correlation. When Cutch was good, the Pirates won, when he wasn't good, the Pirates didn't. Obviously there was more to it than that, but the point remains true.
Posey has some correlation as well, but not nearly as striking. The Giants catcher had his worst month in May when he hit .253/.311/.363, however the Giants still won 52% of their games. Posey had a stellar second half of the season. In July he hit .381/.448/.595 but the Giants had their worst winning month of the year winning just half of their games. Posey kept going and hit .371/.482/.652 in August while his team won 62% of the games and the Giants were even better in September, winning 70% of the time while Posey hit .364/.415/.607. The Giants were still a .500 team while Posey wasn't doing much at the plate.
Again, this a one season sample, and you can't take all that much from what I just said. Just because Posey had bad month and the Giants still won half of their games doesn't mean that they would have been a .500 team with him hitting .250 all season long. That said, this part of the study certainly favors McCutchen for MVP.
A lot of attention goes to Wins Above Replacement when you're looking at the MVP picture. Posey does have the edge in that category (7.2 to 7.0 on baseball-reference and 8.0 to 7.4 on FanGraphs). A lot of that has to do with Posey playing catcher, which automatically helps his WAR number. Defensively, Posey was superior to McCutchen, who was a below average center fielder. All-in-all I don't think it's all that fair to just look at WAR. That number compares these players to a league-average replacement player, and has nothing specifically to do with the teams they play on.
The word "valuable" really is what makes me think that McCutchen should win the award. I personally don't really agree with the award being about value, because that eliminates some players right off the bat. Nobody from a really terrible team could ever be considered for the award, which isn't fair in my eyes. Every player strives to be the best player in the league, not the most valuable. Why not make the most prestigious award in the sport available to all the players, and not just the one on good teams? That's a question for another day. If we're talking straight value, and we are, the edge goes to Cutch in my eyes.
Front Office to be Maintained
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We all have what they call "pet peeves" in this life, one of my biggest ones is when somebody can't admit when they aren't good at something, or they don't know a lot about a certain subject. If you have been reading this blog in recent months, you know that I will be the first one to admit that I have not been paying all that much attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates and I definitely do not have the strongest opinions on everything going on, but for now I'll weigh in anyways.
As you probably know, today Bob Nutting spoke with the media and told everybody that the front office will be maintained. There's been posts written about this all over Pirates blogs, so check those out for some more analysis, because what I'm going to give you now certainly won't be enough.
Basically, I'm down with keeping the guys around. You can certainly argue it either way, but from what I can tell, Neil Huntington and company have done a pretty good job since they've taken over. When he took the job, there was very little hope for the future; you can't say that anymore. The major league team is much, much better, and we have some real superstar caliber players in the minors. I wouldn't rank the Pirates very high up on the list of top farm systems in the game, but it has improved greatly, and there is still a bunch of young talent that will be on the 2013 Opening Day roster. Maybe you expected us to have been in this stage earlier, and you thought that by the time 2012 rolled around the Pirates would be a playoff team. They were nearly that last year, but a horrible collapse really turned things for the worse. The five year plan didn't exactly work, but I honestly think with another year or two this team is going to be a serious contender.
I like what Huntington has done. He's made his mistakes and has wasted some draft picks, but you won't find too many teams that haven't had their share of that as well. It's really hard to pick players that can make it to the big leagues and be consistently productive. Not that that's an excuse for a GM to be bad at his job, but you can't blame Huntington for all the bad things that have happened recently.
Kyle Stark keeping his job is something that I really don't have an opinion on. I know very little about that job description or what he actually does (I'm being brutally honest here). The whole NAVY SEALs thing is going away, which is kind of funny to me. Stark has been implementing this thing and nobody even really knew about it until the collapse happened. To me it wasn't a big deal at all. It lasted a few days and didn't seem like anything that had anything but a positive impact, but again I could be wrong. I can say this though, if the collapse didn't happen it would still be going on.
The question I want to raise here is who would replace these guys? It's not like there's capable MLB GM's and scout directors just lined up waiting for jobs. Huntington and Stark have jobs for a reason, and if they were obviously worse than somebody that's unemployed, why would they be here in the first place? I'm not saying that there aren't better options out there, because I'm sure there is, somewhere. I just don't know how easy it would be to replace them, and if it's really a good idea to do it at this stage. The team has been improving in recent years so why mess with it now? We have a team that looks pretty solid on paper for 2013, let Huntington and company have a chance to finish what they started.
If you think I'm completely wrong and you disagree with Nutting's decision to keep everyone around, I won't even argue with you. Keep the peace Pittsburgh.
As you probably know, today Bob Nutting spoke with the media and told everybody that the front office will be maintained. There's been posts written about this all over Pirates blogs, so check those out for some more analysis, because what I'm going to give you now certainly won't be enough.
Basically, I'm down with keeping the guys around. You can certainly argue it either way, but from what I can tell, Neil Huntington and company have done a pretty good job since they've taken over. When he took the job, there was very little hope for the future; you can't say that anymore. The major league team is much, much better, and we have some real superstar caliber players in the minors. I wouldn't rank the Pirates very high up on the list of top farm systems in the game, but it has improved greatly, and there is still a bunch of young talent that will be on the 2013 Opening Day roster. Maybe you expected us to have been in this stage earlier, and you thought that by the time 2012 rolled around the Pirates would be a playoff team. They were nearly that last year, but a horrible collapse really turned things for the worse. The five year plan didn't exactly work, but I honestly think with another year or two this team is going to be a serious contender.
I like what Huntington has done. He's made his mistakes and has wasted some draft picks, but you won't find too many teams that haven't had their share of that as well. It's really hard to pick players that can make it to the big leagues and be consistently productive. Not that that's an excuse for a GM to be bad at his job, but you can't blame Huntington for all the bad things that have happened recently.
Kyle Stark keeping his job is something that I really don't have an opinion on. I know very little about that job description or what he actually does (I'm being brutally honest here). The whole NAVY SEALs thing is going away, which is kind of funny to me. Stark has been implementing this thing and nobody even really knew about it until the collapse happened. To me it wasn't a big deal at all. It lasted a few days and didn't seem like anything that had anything but a positive impact, but again I could be wrong. I can say this though, if the collapse didn't happen it would still be going on.
The question I want to raise here is who would replace these guys? It's not like there's capable MLB GM's and scout directors just lined up waiting for jobs. Huntington and Stark have jobs for a reason, and if they were obviously worse than somebody that's unemployed, why would they be here in the first place? I'm not saying that there aren't better options out there, because I'm sure there is, somewhere. I just don't know how easy it would be to replace them, and if it's really a good idea to do it at this stage. The team has been improving in recent years so why mess with it now? We have a team that looks pretty solid on paper for 2013, let Huntington and company have a chance to finish what they started.
If you think I'm completely wrong and you disagree with Nutting's decision to keep everyone around, I won't even argue with you. Keep the peace Pittsburgh.
Thoughts on Jay Bell
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I started getting really into the Pirates when I was around 7 years old. That was around 1997. I distinctly remember the names Jeff King, Al Martin, Kevin Young, Francisco Cordova, and yes, the man of the hour - Jay Bell.
Apparently Bell spent some time recently as a double-A hitting coach in Arizona's system. He's also coaching the New Zealand national team, which is ... interesting.
The next thing I should say here is that I don't think hitting coaches really do all that much. I wrote about Gregg Ritchie a lot this past season, and I arrived at the conclusion that any offensive struggles or successes cannot be attributed to the hitting coach on the team. The players are in the major leagues for a reason, they don't need to be taught any longer. They need another set of eyes to help them make corrections when needed, so the hitting coach does have some hand in the players' successes, but I really don't think it has a very significant impact.
Saying that, it's obvious that I wouldn't have really cared who the Pirates got to be their hitting coach for next year. The name Jay Bell is generating buzz just because people know who he is and remember him doing some good things for this team. Let me ask you this, if the Pirates signed another team's AA hitting coach to be their major league hitting coach, and you didn't know who he was, would you be excited about it? I don't see why you would. If Jay Bell had never played or the Pirates, would he even have been considered for the job? I doubt it. Did any other team ever consider giving Bell a hitting coach at the big league level? That's possible, he was a bench coach for the Diamondbacks between 2005-2006, but hasn't had any major league action since then. It's hard for me to believe that he was a name that was sought after by any other team.
Bell was a good defensive shortstop and he had one huge offensive year (38 home runs in 1999, his next highest home run total was 21). For his career he hit .265/.343/.416, which isn't great. Just because he wasn't a great hitter in his time in the majors doesn't mean that he can't be a good coach, but again, he just doesn't seem like a guy that was a hot name on the hitting coach market.
It's hard for me to be upset about a position that I don't feel has any real influence on the win-loss total of the team, but I'm just a bit surprised by all the positivity coming from this move. Although some positivity is a good thing, since all we've had since August is negative, negative, negative.
Apparently Bell spent some time recently as a double-A hitting coach in Arizona's system. He's also coaching the New Zealand national team, which is ... interesting.
The next thing I should say here is that I don't think hitting coaches really do all that much. I wrote about Gregg Ritchie a lot this past season, and I arrived at the conclusion that any offensive struggles or successes cannot be attributed to the hitting coach on the team. The players are in the major leagues for a reason, they don't need to be taught any longer. They need another set of eyes to help them make corrections when needed, so the hitting coach does have some hand in the players' successes, but I really don't think it has a very significant impact.
Saying that, it's obvious that I wouldn't have really cared who the Pirates got to be their hitting coach for next year. The name Jay Bell is generating buzz just because people know who he is and remember him doing some good things for this team. Let me ask you this, if the Pirates signed another team's AA hitting coach to be their major league hitting coach, and you didn't know who he was, would you be excited about it? I don't see why you would. If Jay Bell had never played or the Pirates, would he even have been considered for the job? I doubt it. Did any other team ever consider giving Bell a hitting coach at the big league level? That's possible, he was a bench coach for the Diamondbacks between 2005-2006, but hasn't had any major league action since then. It's hard for me to believe that he was a name that was sought after by any other team.
Bell was a good defensive shortstop and he had one huge offensive year (38 home runs in 1999, his next highest home run total was 21). For his career he hit .265/.343/.416, which isn't great. Just because he wasn't a great hitter in his time in the majors doesn't mean that he can't be a good coach, but again, he just doesn't seem like a guy that was a hot name on the hitting coach market.
It's hard for me to be upset about a position that I don't feel has any real influence on the win-loss total of the team, but I'm just a bit surprised by all the positivity coming from this move. Although some positivity is a good thing, since all we've had since August is negative, negative, negative.
Weighing Interest
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The World Series starts tomorrow night, and the Pirates are not in it. To be honest, this is the least interest I have had in the baseball playoffs in years. There's no doubt in my mind that the Pirates collapse had everything to do with that.
I haven't been writing on here or tweeting about baseball since August, and I'm sure nobody has really missed either of those things just because of how disgusting this season turned out to be.
But how long will it take us to get back into it? It's always nice to take a month or two off at the end of a long season to try and think about other things, but I'm usually antsy to talk baseball again by December. I'm not sure if that's going to be true again this year. To be honest I have no desire at all to think about what the Pirates should or shouldn't do this offseason, and I'm hoping that that desire comes back. The blog and Twitter have made the past three years of my life a lot of fun, and I don't want it to end even as I move on from college and head into the real world next year. Only time will tell where I'll be come this summer, but for now I'm just hoping for one more offseason of good-hearted speculation and prediction as we all look forward to another 0-0 record.
So where is your interest level at? Are you going to be following the offseason and winter meetings as closely this year? Will you care more? Less? The same? let me know below, and I promise to start writing here more frequently, although it might be more emotional and philosophical than in previous years.
I haven't been writing on here or tweeting about baseball since August, and I'm sure nobody has really missed either of those things just because of how disgusting this season turned out to be.
But how long will it take us to get back into it? It's always nice to take a month or two off at the end of a long season to try and think about other things, but I'm usually antsy to talk baseball again by December. I'm not sure if that's going to be true again this year. To be honest I have no desire at all to think about what the Pirates should or shouldn't do this offseason, and I'm hoping that that desire comes back. The blog and Twitter have made the past three years of my life a lot of fun, and I don't want it to end even as I move on from college and head into the real world next year. Only time will tell where I'll be come this summer, but for now I'm just hoping for one more offseason of good-hearted speculation and prediction as we all look forward to another 0-0 record.
So where is your interest level at? Are you going to be following the offseason and winter meetings as closely this year? Will you care more? Less? The same? let me know below, and I promise to start writing here more frequently, although it might be more emotional and philosophical than in previous years.
Did the McEffect Have a Positive Effect in 2012?
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by: Patrick Reddick
Nate McLouth was named the Player of the Game for the fourth game of the Yankees, Orioles ALDS last night after a solid defensive performance and hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning. Yep, that same McLouth whose namesake was on the McEffect shirt I wore as I watched the game. But was there really a “McEffect”? And did it have a good or bad effect on baseball and the Pirates this year?
The Pirates had seven Mc’s; more than any other team in the Major Leagues and likely more than any other team has had at any point. McCutchen, McGehee, McKenry, McLouth, McDonald, McPhearson, and McCutchen.
Andrew McCutchen was easily the Pirates’ star in 2012. He missed just five games, was in the top three in the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, and total bases. He led the NL in hits with 154. Cutch was an All-Star and had a WAR of 7, just .2 behind NL leader Buster Posey (he was fifth in all of MLB, even ahead of Cabrera who will win the MVP just because of that lame Triple Crown thing).
Casey McGehee played 92 games for the Bucs as the team’s main first baseman. McGehee had a .297 OBP and a .377 slugging average that were an improvement over last season, but nowhere near his 2009 performance with the Brewers that the Pirates were hoping he would recapture. McGehee played in 22 games after he was traded to the Yankees, but performed poorly and is not part of their post-season team.
Mikey “The Fort” McKenry caught every pitch of a 19-inning game for the second consecutive summer, but only appeared in 87 other games because of something weird going on in Clint Hurdle’s brain. McKenry had a .320 OBP, nearly 40 points higher than Rod Barajas’s, and set multiple new career marks including his 12 home runs. McKenry threw out just 18% of base stealers (13-for-61) although that was triple the rate Barajas performed at. The Fort should be the main catcher for the Pirates next season or there’s something wrong.
James McDonald is the youngest member of the Pirates starting rotation and he started the second-most games of anyone on the staff. In his second full year as a starter McDonald matched exactly the number of innings he threw last year (171) as well as earned runs he gave up (80) also meaning his ERA stayed the same (4.21). That being said, he walked fewer batters, allowed less hits, and struck more hitters out. His WHIP decreased 0.2 to 1.263 and he had the lowest H/9 among Pirate starters (7.7).
Daniel “White Cutch” McCutchen did not do much in the Majors in 2012, although most fans might have liked it if he had done even less. His only appearance came in the bottom of the 10th inning on August 21, when he promptly walked a guy and gave up a walk-off homer to the next. He did have a 2.98 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in AAA where he spent most of the summer, so we might see him again next year.
Kyle McPhearson made ten appearances for the Pirates in late September and August, starting three games. He finished with a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 innings with seven walks and 21 strikeouts. He is only 24 years old, so it seems likely that we’ll see him again next season.
Which brings us back to our old buddy Nate McLouth who appeared in 34 games for the Pirates in April and May. He was bad (.140/.210/.175) and the Pirates released him as they should have. Five days later he signed with Baltimore where he played in 55 games and went crazy compared to his time with the Pirates (.268/.342/.435). He even stole 12 bases (12 more than he had with the Pirates) and has been a nightly leadoff man for the Orioles in the post-season.
Overall the Mcs had a combined WAR of 8.9 in their 2012 work in Pittsburgh, and while the Pirates will probably have a decreased number of Mcs on the roster next summer it seems overall, the McEffect is a positive one.
Nate McLouth was named the Player of the Game for the fourth game of the Yankees, Orioles ALDS last night after a solid defensive performance and hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning. Yep, that same McLouth whose namesake was on the McEffect shirt I wore as I watched the game. But was there really a “McEffect”? And did it have a good or bad effect on baseball and the Pirates this year?
The Pirates had seven Mc’s; more than any other team in the Major Leagues and likely more than any other team has had at any point. McCutchen, McGehee, McKenry, McLouth, McDonald, McPhearson, and McCutchen.
Andrew McCutchen was easily the Pirates’ star in 2012. He missed just five games, was in the top three in the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, and total bases. He led the NL in hits with 154. Cutch was an All-Star and had a WAR of 7, just .2 behind NL leader Buster Posey (he was fifth in all of MLB, even ahead of Cabrera who will win the MVP just because of that lame Triple Crown thing).
Casey McGehee played 92 games for the Bucs as the team’s main first baseman. McGehee had a .297 OBP and a .377 slugging average that were an improvement over last season, but nowhere near his 2009 performance with the Brewers that the Pirates were hoping he would recapture. McGehee played in 22 games after he was traded to the Yankees, but performed poorly and is not part of their post-season team.
Mikey “The Fort” McKenry caught every pitch of a 19-inning game for the second consecutive summer, but only appeared in 87 other games because of something weird going on in Clint Hurdle’s brain. McKenry had a .320 OBP, nearly 40 points higher than Rod Barajas’s, and set multiple new career marks including his 12 home runs. McKenry threw out just 18% of base stealers (13-for-61) although that was triple the rate Barajas performed at. The Fort should be the main catcher for the Pirates next season or there’s something wrong.
James McDonald is the youngest member of the Pirates starting rotation and he started the second-most games of anyone on the staff. In his second full year as a starter McDonald matched exactly the number of innings he threw last year (171) as well as earned runs he gave up (80) also meaning his ERA stayed the same (4.21). That being said, he walked fewer batters, allowed less hits, and struck more hitters out. His WHIP decreased 0.2 to 1.263 and he had the lowest H/9 among Pirate starters (7.7).
Daniel “White Cutch” McCutchen did not do much in the Majors in 2012, although most fans might have liked it if he had done even less. His only appearance came in the bottom of the 10th inning on August 21, when he promptly walked a guy and gave up a walk-off homer to the next. He did have a 2.98 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in AAA where he spent most of the summer, so we might see him again next year.
Kyle McPhearson made ten appearances for the Pirates in late September and August, starting three games. He finished with a 2.73 ERA in 26.1 innings with seven walks and 21 strikeouts. He is only 24 years old, so it seems likely that we’ll see him again next season.
Which brings us back to our old buddy Nate McLouth who appeared in 34 games for the Pirates in April and May. He was bad (.140/.210/.175) and the Pirates released him as they should have. Five days later he signed with Baltimore where he played in 55 games and went crazy compared to his time with the Pirates (.268/.342/.435). He even stole 12 bases (12 more than he had with the Pirates) and has been a nightly leadoff man for the Orioles in the post-season.
Overall the Mcs had a combined WAR of 8.9 in their 2012 work in Pittsburgh, and while the Pirates will probably have a decreased number of Mcs on the roster next summer it seems overall, the McEffect is a positive one.
Another Offseason Begins
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Well the 2012 season is coming to an end today as the Pirates are getting ready to try and finish their campaign off with a three game sweep of the Atlanta Braves, who will be playing in the one-game Wild Card playoff on Friday after a season in which they won 93 or 94 games. The fact that a 93/94 team might be eliminated by the 87/88 win Cardinals in a one-game playoff is absolutely ridiculous, but that's not the point here.
We all know the story of how this season went, and honestly to me I don't see how this isn't going to end up being one of the most disappointing seasons in Pirates history. Sure, it's an incredibly long history that I know very little about, but I just can't see how anything could be much worse than going from 16 games over in July to not even winning half of your games, especially after the past 19 years and even more especially how a similar thing happened last year. If someone else has a season they would elect to run against this one for most disappointing in franchise history, I'm all ears, but for now I'm going to stick with 2012.
All of that negativity out of the way, you can still take some positives from this season. I've been saying this for awhile now, and I know not a lot of people want to hear it. This team won 79 or 80 games, and they didn't look like a team that could do that well at season's beginning. Just ignore how they got here and take that as another stepping stone. Sure, the five year plan is taking longer than five years, but the organization is much better right now than it was when the plan started, so why not stay on board for awhile longer?
That's an interesting question to ask I think. How will fans react after a season like this? What will 2013 ticket sales look like? How will the TV ratings look? I know that this season took quite a toll on me. It took a toll to the point where I have honestly been completely apathetic about baseball pretty much since September started. I haven't watched more than a few innings of any game in at least four weeks, which is uncommon for me to say the least. I'm sure it has been this way for a lot of people, but the question now becomes how will this translate into feelings about the 2013 season? Will we forget about this and be just as excited and ready for next year to start? Or will baseball bring back the bad taste in our mouths that we have now. Only time will tell, but I'm guessing that we'll be pretty excited to be 0-0 once again.
This franchise has a lot of decisions to make in the offseason, and I promise that I'll start writing more regularly on here to talk about such decisions. Despite my lack of writing this last month, other Pirates bloggers and writers have kept strong through the collapse, and I respect them a lot for that. I also have the excuse that I'm a college senior and I do have some other things that take up my free time, but if this team were winning I'm sure I would have been on here more often. I don't really have to apologize, because I'm sure your day to day lives didn't change at all while The "Mc" Effect was idle.
Anyways, the offseason is starting and I for one am a bit relieved of that fact. While the offseason seems far too long every year, it will be nice to have a few months to think about things other than baseball and the travesty that is the Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 season. I've been honestly thinking about making another blog that has nothing to do with baseball, just because I have a lot of stupid stuff to talk about that most people that read this stuff would think is ... well ... stupid. I'll keep you updated on that.
Go Orioles... right?
We all know the story of how this season went, and honestly to me I don't see how this isn't going to end up being one of the most disappointing seasons in Pirates history. Sure, it's an incredibly long history that I know very little about, but I just can't see how anything could be much worse than going from 16 games over in July to not even winning half of your games, especially after the past 19 years and even more especially how a similar thing happened last year. If someone else has a season they would elect to run against this one for most disappointing in franchise history, I'm all ears, but for now I'm going to stick with 2012.
All of that negativity out of the way, you can still take some positives from this season. I've been saying this for awhile now, and I know not a lot of people want to hear it. This team won 79 or 80 games, and they didn't look like a team that could do that well at season's beginning. Just ignore how they got here and take that as another stepping stone. Sure, the five year plan is taking longer than five years, but the organization is much better right now than it was when the plan started, so why not stay on board for awhile longer?
That's an interesting question to ask I think. How will fans react after a season like this? What will 2013 ticket sales look like? How will the TV ratings look? I know that this season took quite a toll on me. It took a toll to the point where I have honestly been completely apathetic about baseball pretty much since September started. I haven't watched more than a few innings of any game in at least four weeks, which is uncommon for me to say the least. I'm sure it has been this way for a lot of people, but the question now becomes how will this translate into feelings about the 2013 season? Will we forget about this and be just as excited and ready for next year to start? Or will baseball bring back the bad taste in our mouths that we have now. Only time will tell, but I'm guessing that we'll be pretty excited to be 0-0 once again.
This franchise has a lot of decisions to make in the offseason, and I promise that I'll start writing more regularly on here to talk about such decisions. Despite my lack of writing this last month, other Pirates bloggers and writers have kept strong through the collapse, and I respect them a lot for that. I also have the excuse that I'm a college senior and I do have some other things that take up my free time, but if this team were winning I'm sure I would have been on here more often. I don't really have to apologize, because I'm sure your day to day lives didn't change at all while The "Mc" Effect was idle.
Anyways, the offseason is starting and I for one am a bit relieved of that fact. While the offseason seems far too long every year, it will be nice to have a few months to think about things other than baseball and the travesty that is the Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 season. I've been honestly thinking about making another blog that has nothing to do with baseball, just because I have a lot of stupid stuff to talk about that most people that read this stuff would think is ... well ... stupid. I'll keep you updated on that.
Go Orioles... right?
Do We Really Need Changes?
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News just came out that the Pirates will not be making any managerial or front office changes this offseason. After possibly the biggest collapse in Major League Baseball history, a lot of people are questioning that decision.
As for me, I don't think it's really a bad thing. I've never been one to believe that manager's really do much to a team's win-loss percentage. They certainly have some bearing on how a team performs, but I don't think hiring a different manager is the answer here. That doesn't mean that I think Clint Hurdle is the best man for the job, I just don't think that bringing someone else in will make any significant difference.
In terms of the front office, I'm less confident talking about it. I really do like the job Neal Huntington has done. You would hard pressed to find a General Manager that's done a better job in the draft since he's been with the Pirates, although the jury is still out on almost all of his picks. He's gotten a lot of talent for the Pirates money and things are certainly looking up right now. I also appreciate his understanding of how and when to spend money. Despite the collapse, I still think he did a very good job at this year's trade deadline. Who knows what would have happened if he had gone a different route, but regardless of that we still have a player in Travis Snider locked up for a few years that could really impact this offense.
I'm not too clear on what Kyle Stark and company do and how it affects the Major League team, but it's hard for me to believe that this collapse is in anyway his fault. We don't have a lot of organizational depth, there's no doubt about that. A lot of that you can chalk up to bad luck, but it certainly doesn't seem like the Pirates are the best organization at developing minor league players. Is that Stark's fault? Could be. Could someone else do a better job? Possibly. Does that mean you HAVE to fire him right now? I don't think so. You can't blame this collapse on Stark; I mean you can do whatever you want, but I think it would be foolish to say he's the main culprit.
To me, this collapse happened because we had a team that wasn't as good as we thought in the first place, and that team certainly wasn't capable of playing anything close to a full 162 games of baseball at a Major League level.
Personally I think it's time we stop looking for someone to blame and start looking forward to next year, while taking what positives we can out of 2012. That's probably easier said than done, so maybe just try saying it over and over again.
As for me, I don't think it's really a bad thing. I've never been one to believe that manager's really do much to a team's win-loss percentage. They certainly have some bearing on how a team performs, but I don't think hiring a different manager is the answer here. That doesn't mean that I think Clint Hurdle is the best man for the job, I just don't think that bringing someone else in will make any significant difference.
In terms of the front office, I'm less confident talking about it. I really do like the job Neal Huntington has done. You would hard pressed to find a General Manager that's done a better job in the draft since he's been with the Pirates, although the jury is still out on almost all of his picks. He's gotten a lot of talent for the Pirates money and things are certainly looking up right now. I also appreciate his understanding of how and when to spend money. Despite the collapse, I still think he did a very good job at this year's trade deadline. Who knows what would have happened if he had gone a different route, but regardless of that we still have a player in Travis Snider locked up for a few years that could really impact this offense.
I'm not too clear on what Kyle Stark and company do and how it affects the Major League team, but it's hard for me to believe that this collapse is in anyway his fault. We don't have a lot of organizational depth, there's no doubt about that. A lot of that you can chalk up to bad luck, but it certainly doesn't seem like the Pirates are the best organization at developing minor league players. Is that Stark's fault? Could be. Could someone else do a better job? Possibly. Does that mean you HAVE to fire him right now? I don't think so. You can't blame this collapse on Stark; I mean you can do whatever you want, but I think it would be foolish to say he's the main culprit.
To me, this collapse happened because we had a team that wasn't as good as we thought in the first place, and that team certainly wasn't capable of playing anything close to a full 162 games of baseball at a Major League level.
Personally I think it's time we stop looking for someone to blame and start looking forward to next year, while taking what positives we can out of 2012. That's probably easier said than done, so maybe just try saying it over and over again.
The Predictability of Playoff Baseball
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One great thing about the game of baseball is how close it makes its competitors. It's very hard to predict who will win a single game of baseball, because of all the different random things that can happen during a game. We are nearing playoff time now, which is exciting for many reasons. One thing I can say about the playoffs is that they are easier to predict than regular season games. Teams have nothing to lose and you know that the best players and pitchers will be used at all times. We can gather a pretty decent idea of which teams have the best chance to be the last teams standing, click here for odds.
Baseball added another Wild Card team this year, which gives us a one-game Wild Card round to open up the postseason. That means a team that has won substantially more games in the regular season could be knocked out by a team with substantially less wins just because of the randomness of one game of baseball. It doesn't seem fair, but it's a reality. The series favorite will be a one game favorite, which will be mainly determined by which starting pitchers toe the rubber. If the second Wild Card team clinches its playoff berth in one of the final games of the year, they very well could go into that game with their ace pitcher unable to pitch. That would create a pretty decent betting situation, if you're into sports betting.
Right now the Texas Rangers come in as the World Series favorite at 4/1. The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds are right behind them at 5/1. Obviously those odds will change as the playoff teams are sorted out and seeded, but there are advantages to getting into the action early. Right now there are a number of teams with a mathematical chance to win the World Series, that won't be true when the regular season ends, which means the odds will get worse as more teams are eliminated.
Right now, I like the Giants out of the National League and the Yankees out of the American League. Those teams seem to have a solid three man rotation, which is what really matters, and they have the bats and experience to compliment it. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, so go figure out your own predictions, what do you have to lose?
Baseball added another Wild Card team this year, which gives us a one-game Wild Card round to open up the postseason. That means a team that has won substantially more games in the regular season could be knocked out by a team with substantially less wins just because of the randomness of one game of baseball. It doesn't seem fair, but it's a reality. The series favorite will be a one game favorite, which will be mainly determined by which starting pitchers toe the rubber. If the second Wild Card team clinches its playoff berth in one of the final games of the year, they very well could go into that game with their ace pitcher unable to pitch. That would create a pretty decent betting situation, if you're into sports betting.
Right now the Texas Rangers come in as the World Series favorite at 4/1. The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds are right behind them at 5/1. Obviously those odds will change as the playoff teams are sorted out and seeded, but there are advantages to getting into the action early. Right now there are a number of teams with a mathematical chance to win the World Series, that won't be true when the regular season ends, which means the odds will get worse as more teams are eliminated.
Right now, I like the Giants out of the National League and the Yankees out of the American League. Those teams seem to have a solid three man rotation, which is what really matters, and they have the bats and experience to compliment it. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, so go figure out your own predictions, what do you have to lose?
Pirates Optimism (Guest Post)
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One of my housemates surprised me with a post that he wrote for the blog. It's got a good message, so I figured I'd post it for you guys to read. The author's name is Anthony Cooper and you can follow him on Twitter here.
If there are three things in life you can count on its death, taxes, and the Pirates losing. Wait, scratch that. Not this year. For some reason unbeknownst to me the baseball gods gambled last April with the success of different teams at stake. The result? Something that has not been seen in years. Don’t look now the Pirates and Orioles are both above .500 with the gods sending a fat middle finger to the Red Sox and Phillies. Ironic, yes, but the hardest part as a fan is knowing how to approach these next few weeks.
It is easy to have high expectations yes, but this is not the way to go. I’m an Orioles fan, and to be honest, I typically avoid them like the plague until after the all-star break which is typically when they go from close to .500 to close to .300. This may make me seem like a crappy fan, but hey, who says you have to invest emotion in terrible team?
Can’t you just hope for the best, and take enjoyment from going to the ole ball park? Isn’t that what baseball is about? Hope? If the Orioles tank and miss out on the playoffs, I’ll be mildly disappointed yes, but it’s what I’ve come to expect. Why expect the playoffs when a sampler platter of the past 20 years contains nothing but disappointment? It’s unreasonable.
So, assuming the Pirates tank, the main thing to take away from this season would be continued progress, and a bevy of young talent that will be back next year. Marte, McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, they’ll all be back next year, not to mention the possible debuts of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. The team should be able to build on this success.
But hey, the season isn’t over, and I’m not saying give up. I’m just saying temper your expectations, accept progress as a positive result, and hope for a possible post season. Peace out. Bottoms Up.
If there are three things in life you can count on its death, taxes, and the Pirates losing. Wait, scratch that. Not this year. For some reason unbeknownst to me the baseball gods gambled last April with the success of different teams at stake. The result? Something that has not been seen in years. Don’t look now the Pirates and Orioles are both above .500 with the gods sending a fat middle finger to the Red Sox and Phillies. Ironic, yes, but the hardest part as a fan is knowing how to approach these next few weeks.
It is easy to have high expectations yes, but this is not the way to go. I’m an Orioles fan, and to be honest, I typically avoid them like the plague until after the all-star break which is typically when they go from close to .500 to close to .300. This may make me seem like a crappy fan, but hey, who says you have to invest emotion in terrible team?
Can’t you just hope for the best, and take enjoyment from going to the ole ball park? Isn’t that what baseball is about? Hope? If the Orioles tank and miss out on the playoffs, I’ll be mildly disappointed yes, but it’s what I’ve come to expect. Why expect the playoffs when a sampler platter of the past 20 years contains nothing but disappointment? It’s unreasonable.
So, assuming the Pirates tank, the main thing to take away from this season would be continued progress, and a bevy of young talent that will be back next year. Marte, McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, they’ll all be back next year, not to mention the possible debuts of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. The team should be able to build on this success.
But hey, the season isn’t over, and I’m not saying give up. I’m just saying temper your expectations, accept progress as a positive result, and hope for a possible post season. Peace out. Bottoms Up.
The Implications of the Second Wild Card
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Before this season began, Major League Baseball announced that there would be another Wild Card playoff team in each league. The decision was made primarily for money's sake. With another wild card team, more teams will be in the race longer, which means more ticket sales and higher TV ratings, amongst other things. While it may have been a good financial decision for the game, it has certainly changed a lot of things this year.
Over the last several weeks, the Pirates have been playing poorly. They were in the race for the National League Central division crown through July, but that possibility has since been erased as the team is 13.5 games back from the Reds. So where would be if there was no second wild card spot?
The Atlanta Braves have the first Wild Card spot pretty well secured. They are 7.5 games up on the second team, the Cardinals. They've been playing very well in the second half and look like a very strong playoff team. So if it weren't for the second Wild Card spot, the Pirates would not have much hope right now. In fact, they wouldn't have had much hope for quite some time. You can say the same for the Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.
Would that make the Pirates collapse hurt less? Yes, almost certainly. Now you can't take that fact and say that the additional playoff spot was bad for the Pirates, because it really wasn't. That allowed us to stay in the race longer, and it's still not impossible that this team could finish strong and have a chance at the playoffs. It's just interesting to think about how much differently this season would feel if they wouldn't have changed the rules.
Personally I think that second Wild Card spot was a really bad idea for the game. We could seriously see a team with 20 less regular season wins knock out the Braves in the one game series. Does that seem fair at all? It sure doesn't. However, you can't change anything, and for right now the decision was good for Pirate fans. They never had a chance at outplaying the Braves for a full year, but thanks to the new rule we have more hope than just looking for a winning season.
Whatever happens, this season is going to be interesting down to the final game, which I suppose is a good thing.
Over the last several weeks, the Pirates have been playing poorly. They were in the race for the National League Central division crown through July, but that possibility has since been erased as the team is 13.5 games back from the Reds. So where would be if there was no second wild card spot?
The Atlanta Braves have the first Wild Card spot pretty well secured. They are 7.5 games up on the second team, the Cardinals. They've been playing very well in the second half and look like a very strong playoff team. So if it weren't for the second Wild Card spot, the Pirates would not have much hope right now. In fact, they wouldn't have had much hope for quite some time. You can say the same for the Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.
Would that make the Pirates collapse hurt less? Yes, almost certainly. Now you can't take that fact and say that the additional playoff spot was bad for the Pirates, because it really wasn't. That allowed us to stay in the race longer, and it's still not impossible that this team could finish strong and have a chance at the playoffs. It's just interesting to think about how much differently this season would feel if they wouldn't have changed the rules.
Personally I think that second Wild Card spot was a really bad idea for the game. We could seriously see a team with 20 less regular season wins knock out the Braves in the one game series. Does that seem fair at all? It sure doesn't. However, you can't change anything, and for right now the decision was good for Pirate fans. They never had a chance at outplaying the Braves for a full year, but thanks to the new rule we have more hope than just looking for a winning season.
Whatever happens, this season is going to be interesting down to the final game, which I suppose is a good thing.
It's Time to Start Fooling Ourselves
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You know what I hate? Opening paragraphs.
The Pirates have really stunk in the last month. I'm not going to sit here and type out all of their recent records to prove that fact to you. What I am going to do is play the role of psychiatrist here and I am going to tell you how you should handle this mentally.
Happiness is one of the most valuable things to attain in this life. If you ever have the chance to get happiness, you have no excuse not to take that chance. The fact is that American's put far too much of their happiness stake in sports; we let a meaningless thing impact an extremely meaningful thing. It doesn't make sense, but that's how it is. If you struggle with such thing, there's probably nothing I can say to help you with such a problem, so let's just skip over it.
The Pirates have to finish the year at least 10-13 to have their first winning season since 1992. Let's assume they do so.
Let's go back to April when all our expectations were tempered a .500 season looked like a huge win. Find those feelings and try to remember them. Let's forget the huge slide the Pirates would have gone in August and September to finish with a record just above .500. Throw perspective out the window and think of this in the large scale. The Pirates would have won 82 of their last 162 games. That's more wins than losses. And you, as a Pirate fan, think that it's okay for you to not be okay with a winning season? No matter where we are, where we came from, or where we started, you're a Pirate fan - so a record that has a bigger number in that W column than the L column is a success.
1992 was a long, long time ago. I was turning two when the Pirates were knocked out of the playoffs that year, so this year is going to be the best season I've seen by my favorite baseball team regardless of what happens in these next few weeks. Join me in being okay with that.
The human mind is persuadable, so let's start persuading ourselves that this has been a positive season for the Pirates. If you think differently and expect a team to play good baseball for six whole months, you just may be rooting for the wrong team.
Sports aren't important. They are for entertainment only, so don't let them have any kind of serious affect the rest of your life - unless the Pirates start surging and make the playoffs, then feel free to go absolutely nuts with no regard for anything else.
The Pirates have really stunk in the last month. I'm not going to sit here and type out all of their recent records to prove that fact to you. What I am going to do is play the role of psychiatrist here and I am going to tell you how you should handle this mentally.
Happiness is one of the most valuable things to attain in this life. If you ever have the chance to get happiness, you have no excuse not to take that chance. The fact is that American's put far too much of their happiness stake in sports; we let a meaningless thing impact an extremely meaningful thing. It doesn't make sense, but that's how it is. If you struggle with such thing, there's probably nothing I can say to help you with such a problem, so let's just skip over it.
The Pirates have to finish the year at least 10-13 to have their first winning season since 1992. Let's assume they do so.
Let's go back to April when all our expectations were tempered a .500 season looked like a huge win. Find those feelings and try to remember them. Let's forget the huge slide the Pirates would have gone in August and September to finish with a record just above .500. Throw perspective out the window and think of this in the large scale. The Pirates would have won 82 of their last 162 games. That's more wins than losses. And you, as a Pirate fan, think that it's okay for you to not be okay with a winning season? No matter where we are, where we came from, or where we started, you're a Pirate fan - so a record that has a bigger number in that W column than the L column is a success.
1992 was a long, long time ago. I was turning two when the Pirates were knocked out of the playoffs that year, so this year is going to be the best season I've seen by my favorite baseball team regardless of what happens in these next few weeks. Join me in being okay with that.
The human mind is persuadable, so let's start persuading ourselves that this has been a positive season for the Pirates. If you think differently and expect a team to play good baseball for six whole months, you just may be rooting for the wrong team.
Sports aren't important. They are for entertainment only, so don't let them have any kind of serious affect the rest of your life - unless the Pirates start surging and make the playoffs, then feel free to go absolutely nuts with no regard for anything else.
Stetson Allie Finishes First Season as a Hitter
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Huge news broke near the beginning of the season this year that told us that the Pirates were changing pitching prospect Stetson Allie to a third base prospect. Allie was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft and the Pirates lured him to their system with an over the top $2.25 MM signing bonus. They had high hopes for the 18 year old kid that could reach triple-digits on the radar gun.
However, Allie quickly showed that he had very little hope of ever turning into a legitimate pitcher. He couldn't find the strike zone and didn't show enough signs that he would figure it out, so the Pirates made a bit of a desperate move. They made him a hitting prospect. He was one of the better power hitting prospects in that draft, believe it or not, so management thought that maybe he could get some return on their investment with the bat.
You shouldn't have expected much from Allie in his first year as a hitter, but in fairness he didn't give us much either. In 42 games and 150 at-bats, Allie hit .213/.314/.340 with six doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He drove in 19 runs and stole two bases while walking 21 times and striking out 50 times. That K/BB ratio isn't good, but again, there was no real reason for him to show maturity at the plate in his first year being solely a hitter. He's a guy that profiles as a power hitter that isn't going to do much in terms of average or contact, so the strikeouts certainly should have been expected.
We definitely cannot take one bad year here and label this a bad decision on management's part. It would have been pretty astounding for Allie to have even a decent year at the plate, just because of how quickly his career path changed. At the beginning of the year he was focused solely on pitching, and now it's the opposite.
The good news is that Allie is just 21 years old and has a few more years to prove himself in the minors before we can label it a complete bust. Obviously, it's a longshot. You just don't see these types of stories ending well very often, but it should be an interesting story to follow for the next few years.
However, Allie quickly showed that he had very little hope of ever turning into a legitimate pitcher. He couldn't find the strike zone and didn't show enough signs that he would figure it out, so the Pirates made a bit of a desperate move. They made him a hitting prospect. He was one of the better power hitting prospects in that draft, believe it or not, so management thought that maybe he could get some return on their investment with the bat.
You shouldn't have expected much from Allie in his first year as a hitter, but in fairness he didn't give us much either. In 42 games and 150 at-bats, Allie hit .213/.314/.340 with six doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He drove in 19 runs and stole two bases while walking 21 times and striking out 50 times. That K/BB ratio isn't good, but again, there was no real reason for him to show maturity at the plate in his first year being solely a hitter. He's a guy that profiles as a power hitter that isn't going to do much in terms of average or contact, so the strikeouts certainly should have been expected.
We definitely cannot take one bad year here and label this a bad decision on management's part. It would have been pretty astounding for Allie to have even a decent year at the plate, just because of how quickly his career path changed. At the beginning of the year he was focused solely on pitching, and now it's the opposite.
The good news is that Allie is just 21 years old and has a few more years to prove himself in the minors before we can label it a complete bust. Obviously, it's a longshot. You just don't see these types of stories ending well very often, but it should be an interesting story to follow for the next few years.
Wrapping Up a Strong Season for the Pitching Prospect Trio
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Coming into 2012, the Pirates had extremely high hopes for the future of their rotation. They nabbed Gerrit Cole in the 2011 draft and added him to the pairing of Jameson Taillon and Luis Heredia, hoping to have a deadly 1-2-3 punch in coming years. There were a lot of eyes on those three arms this summer, and they didn't disappoint.
While the minor league seasons aren't all completely over yet, it's safe to say that the numbers we see right now will be about what these pitchers will finish up with this for the year. So let's take a look at what the big three did in 2012.
Gerrit Cole
Season: 26 GS, 132.0 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 9.3 K/9
A+: 13 GS, 67.0 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 9.3 K/9
AA: 12 GS, 59. IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.2 K/9
AAA: 1 GS, 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 10.5 K/9
Jameson Taillon
Season: 26 GS, 142.0 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
A+: 23 GS, 125.0 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.168 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9
AA: 3 GS, 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.706 WHIP, 5.8 H/9, 0.0 HR/9 0.5 BB/9, 9.5 K/9
Luis Heredia
Season (A-): 14 GS, 2.71 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9
Keep in mind with Heredia that he really wasn't pitching to strike people out. They do a lot of developmental work in State College and statistical results really aren't the goal there. That makes his good numbers even more encouraging; you'll rarely see a pitcher have a good statistical season in State College like Heredia did.
Looking at all of those numbers, you have to be pretty confident about the future of this Pirates pitching rotation. If these three can continue to progress and eventually meet their potential, the Pirates could have the best pitching rotation in the majors, and have it pretty easily.
As for next year, Cole will start the year in AAA, Taillon probably in AA, and Heredia will more than likely go to Bradenton. I would be surprised if Cole didn't debut around June next year, and Taillon could possibly make a start or two later in the year, but they'll probably be patient with him. We're looking at 2015 as the earliest that all three of these pitchers could be in Pittsburgh together, and that could really be something to see.
While the minor league seasons aren't all completely over yet, it's safe to say that the numbers we see right now will be about what these pitchers will finish up with this for the year. So let's take a look at what the big three did in 2012.
Gerrit Cole
Season: 26 GS, 132.0 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 9.3 K/9
A+: 13 GS, 67.0 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 9.3 K/9
AA: 12 GS, 59. IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.2 K/9
AAA: 1 GS, 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 10.5 K/9
Jameson Taillon
Season: 26 GS, 142.0 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
A+: 23 GS, 125.0 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.168 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9
AA: 3 GS, 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.706 WHIP, 5.8 H/9, 0.0 HR/9 0.5 BB/9, 9.5 K/9
Luis Heredia
Season (A-): 14 GS, 2.71 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9
Keep in mind with Heredia that he really wasn't pitching to strike people out. They do a lot of developmental work in State College and statistical results really aren't the goal there. That makes his good numbers even more encouraging; you'll rarely see a pitcher have a good statistical season in State College like Heredia did.
Looking at all of those numbers, you have to be pretty confident about the future of this Pirates pitching rotation. If these three can continue to progress and eventually meet their potential, the Pirates could have the best pitching rotation in the majors, and have it pretty easily.
As for next year, Cole will start the year in AAA, Taillon probably in AA, and Heredia will more than likely go to Bradenton. I would be surprised if Cole didn't debut around June next year, and Taillon could possibly make a start or two later in the year, but they'll probably be patient with him. We're looking at 2015 as the earliest that all three of these pitchers could be in Pittsburgh together, and that could really be something to see.
Prospect Breakdown: Luis Heredia 9/5 start vs Mahoning Valley Scrappers
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Luckily I got to catch Heredia's final start tonight, which happened to be the last Spikes home game of the 2012 season. Coming into tonight's outing, he had just come off a shaky month of August that was by far his worst month as a professional. During his five starts in August, Heredia threw 23 innings while allowing 20 hits, 12 earned runs, and posting a lackluster 13:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
One thing I did pay attention to from the get-go was his "supposed" amped up velocity on his fastball. Reports at the beginning of the season said Heredia grew a few inches and increased his fastball velocity in the off-season and was sitting in the mid 90's consistently and could hit the high 90's. But the highest I had him on record for tonight was 91 MPH twice and consistently sitting at 87-89. I am not sure about the reputation of how cold the radar guns are at Medlar Field at Lubrano Park (the home of the Spikes and Penn State Baseball). Maybe it was because it was his final start of the season and his arm might be burned out. We do have to consider the fact Heredia is still a spring chicken at the ripe age of 18 years old and he doubled his innings pitched. In 2011 for the GCL Pirates, Heredia only 30.1 innings in 12 games in contrast to his 66.1 in 14 games for State College this season.
Enough of that. Lets get to good stuff, eh? With the expectations of his new-found gas all in my mind, I was surprised to see the radar gun flash on the right field PNC Park-esuqe wall to start the game. First pitch: a high and in 89 MPH ball against scrappy Mahoning Valley first baseman Erik Gonzalez. Throughout the rest of the at-bat, Heredia moved throughout the zone to adjust to Gonzalez's battle at the plate as he fouled off three straight. Then Heredia finally got Gonzalez to chase on a picture perfect "pitchers pitch" (SAY THAT FIVE TIMES STRAIGHT!), an 81 MPH ball off the outer black with slider type movement, to notch his first strikeout of the night. Against his next better, Heredia got center field Hunter Jones to line out to Spikes right fielder Jesus Vazquez on a ball in the middle of the zone on the outer third. The Scrappers three hole hitter, shortstop Dorssys Paulino, witnessed Heredia flash a nice 80 MPH change up against him that just missed the outer half of the zone. Later in the at-bat, Heredia rared back with a 90 MPH fastball to get Paulino swinging for his second strikeout on the night. At the end of the first, Heredia threw 13 pitches with eight of them being strikes.
In the second, Heredia had to grind it out right from the start. He walked the lead off hitter Logan Vick on four straight balls, all fastballs at 87, 86, 88 and 87 MPH, respectively. Then he continued to miss high with his fastball and not find the zone as he threw his fifth straight ball to Mahoning Valley right fielder Andrew Campbell. You could definitely tell Heredia was a little off mechanically as he was not bending his back and finishing low. But he gutted it out and got Campbell to fly out to shortstop Chris Diaz. Then, in probably his best overall at-bat of the game, Heredia attacked Jeremy Lucas with pinpoint fastball location on the low and outside corner for a 88 MPH first-pitch strike. To counter with the fastball, he went back to the outer half and got Lucas to chase two 78 MPH sliders in the dirt and notch his third strikeout in three pitches. To end the third, Heredia got behind 2-0 against Jorge Martinez but got him to chase an 88 MPH fastball in on the hands for the good old BROKEN BAT GROUNDOUT to second. It was clear that his off speed stuff, specifically the slider in the high 70's, was looking great tonight with batters looking completely out of balance. At the end of two, Heredia threw 27 pitches (12 balls, 15 strikes).
The third inning was by far his most efficient of night and it just so happened to be the Samuel Gonzalez show as he recorded all three outs himself. Heredia started off Mitch Nilsson with an 86 MPH fastball right down the middle (Fun fact: Heredia started off ten of his 18 hitters with first pitch strikes). Then he got the switch-hitting Nilsson to roll over to the first baseman Gonzalez on an 83 MPH changeup that was left a little up in the zone. But no harm, eh? Robel Garcia then got Heredia to fall behind 2-0 on two high 90 MPH fastballs but eventually joined teammate Mitch Nilsson on the bench and grounded out to first. Leadoff hitter Erik Gonzalez wasted no time in his second crack against the Mexican phenom and lined out to first base on a first pitch 87 MPH fastball on the low outside corner. At the end of his third inning of work: 34 pitches (14 balls, 20 strikes) with a NO-HITTER ALERT!
Now holding a 2-0 lead, Heredia had his most difficult inning of the night in the fourth, which was not saying too much. Hunter Jones led off the four with his mind clearly fixated on bunting for a base hit to actually get a runner on. He bunted two 87 MPH fastballs foul on the low outer half and was not successful. Luckily, the dominance of Heredia's slider and changeup location tonight got Jones to roll over to third on a nice 2-2 slider way out of the zone. After 10 batters and 43 pitches, Heredia finally gave up his first hit of the night, a line drive base hit off the bat of Dorssys Paulino. But he managed to quickly gain his composure back to get Logan Vick to roll over to first base on a first pitch changeup and then get Andrew Campbell to go down looking on a perfect 90 MPH fastball on the outside black. Since he worked from the stretch most of the fourth, I did notice Heredia looked a lot better when it came to keeping the ball down in the zone consistently. At the end of his fourth inning of work: 49 pitches (18 balls, 28 strikes).
In his final inning, Heredia definitely was losing velocity on his fastball and looked tired as he hung a 1-1 78 MPH slider to Jeremy Lucas for a double to the right center gap. He looked as if he was running on "E" out as he sat between 82-84 with his fastball and was leaving pitches in the middle of the zone. Against the second hitter in the fifth, Heredia fell behind Jorge Martinez 2-0 until getting him to ground out on a middle-middle 84 MPH fastball. Then he used that giant frame of his to rare back with 91 MPH gas up and in on a 2-2 pitch to get Mitch Nilsson swinging. To end the fairytale season of one young Mexican phenom, Robel Garcia hacked at the first pitch he saw and flied out to right field.
In summation, Heredia finished his night going five scoreless innings only allowing two hits and walking one while striking out five to notch his 4th win of the season. He threw 61 total pitches (22 balls, 33 strikes). When he seemed to show any chinks in his armor, his battled back and got out of any problems. If he pitches in State College again in the 2013 season or in West Virginia with the Power, GO OUT AND SEE HIM PITCH if you get the chance. Just his sheer size out on the mound is entertainment in itself. But getting the opportunity to see one of the top young pitching prospects in all of baseball is such a treat. Add Heredia's great season with Cole and Taillon's, the Pirates continues to shine ever so brightly! THE SUN IS SHINING EVERYDAY!!! To quote my favorite band the Foo Fighters, "one of these days their bombs will drop and silence everything".
For those that are curious, he played most of the season at only 17 years old. His final statistics for the 2012 season with the State College Spikes were: 66.1 innings pitched, 4-2 record, 2.71 ERA, 53 hits, 20 earned runs, 2 home runs allowed, 20 walks, 40 strikeouts.
Now from a non-baseball standpoint, Heredia might be the nicest person I have ever met. He took the time to sign EVERY SINGLE ITEM given to him by fans. Post game during the fireworks he was tossed everything from programs, bats, gloves, baseballs, among many others. He smiles all of the time and puts out his hand to shake yours even if you do not acknowledge his kind gesture towards you. He is a very soft spoken and down to earth kid. The one thing that did surprise me was his clarity speaking English. I personally expected his English to still be a little spotty since he has only been in the United States for two years now. If I had to rate his English from one to ten (one being lowest and ten the highest) it would be roughly a seven. The highlight of my night...during the post game fireworks show (yes, a PNC Park favorite!) I had the privilege to get my picture taken with Heredia (shown above) and he was so nice that he gave me an official New York-Penn League ball and autographed it for me. What a nice guy, right? To top it off, he gave me one of his only bats while I was waiting in the parking lot for some post game quotes from him.
9/5 Kevin Correia Pitch f/X
Comments| Pitch Type | Veloc | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strike% |
| 4-Seam | 90.0 | -1.67 | 7.58 | 5 | 80.00% |
| Change | 86.0 | -6.88 | 4.53 | 15 | 53.33% |
| Slider | 87.5 | 2.21 | 5.16 | 22 | 68.18% |
| Curve | 77.0 | 5.42 | -5.15 | 6 | 33.33% |
| Cutter | 89.4 | 0.34 | 7.82 | 7 | 71.43% |
| 2-Seam | 90.5 | -6.34 | 6.65 | 12 | 66.67% |
Recap 9/5 | Pirates 6 Astros 3
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The offense looked pretty good for the Pirates tonight as well. Gaby Sanchez had a three hit game and Alex Presley had a good game also, hitting an RBI triple. Clint Barmes reached base three times and had an RBI and Brock Holt picked up two more RBIs to add onto his impressive rookie showing.
After a disappointing loss Monday, these two wins to win the series against the Astros will hopefully set up a successful series against the Chicago Cubs this weekend.
Rod Barajas vs. Michael McKenry, August & September Starts
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Threw together some data about the Pirates catching situation since August. In this time frame the Pirates are 11-21 in this time. Here's the breakdown of who has started what games at the catching position.
Rod Barajas has made 17 starts and has hit .183/.254/.250 in those starts. The team is 4-13. A.J. Burnett has made six starts, Wandy Rodriguez, Kevin Correia, and Erik Bedard have all made three, and James McDonald and Jeff Locke were both caught by Barajas once in that time.
McKenry's numbers are better. Despite being the better hitter all year long, he's started just 15 of the last 32 games, in which the Pirates are 7-8. McKenry has hit .235/.307/.412 in that time, still not a good line but he's hitting for power when he's hitting and compared to Barajas he looked likes Johnny freakin Bench. He has become Jeff Karstens personal catcher, catching all six of his starts. The Pirates also prefer McKenry to catch McDonald, and five of his six starts have come with McKenry behind the dish. Rodriguez has made three starts with The Fort and Bedard made one.
There's no question that McKenry gives the Pirates a better chance to win than Barajas does. One thing I don't think people understand is that one catcher can't start every game. We're into September now, and these two have been at it all year long. All of the games this year have been caught by one of these two, so it's very probable that they're both probably pretty worked by now. You really have to split time at the catching position in this situation. It still seems like Barajas is getting more of the time, which is opposite of what should be happening. If the Pirates really think Burnett is that much better with Barajas, that's fine. But they need to find a way to get McKenry more than half the starts. I'd say it should be a 3-2 split with McKenry getting that 60%.
Is it a coincidence that the Pirates have three more wins in two less games with McKenry starting over Barajas? It probably is. Like I said, he really hasn't been doing much offensively either. Having McKenry behind the plate gives the Pirates a better chance to win, but not a much better chance. They need better performances from their starting pitchers to win, that is the bottomline. However, it just doesn't seem like the Pirates are doing the little things correctly here.
Rod Barajas has made 17 starts and has hit .183/.254/.250 in those starts. The team is 4-13. A.J. Burnett has made six starts, Wandy Rodriguez, Kevin Correia, and Erik Bedard have all made three, and James McDonald and Jeff Locke were both caught by Barajas once in that time.
McKenry's numbers are better. Despite being the better hitter all year long, he's started just 15 of the last 32 games, in which the Pirates are 7-8. McKenry has hit .235/.307/.412 in that time, still not a good line but he's hitting for power when he's hitting and compared to Barajas he looked likes Johnny freakin Bench. He has become Jeff Karstens personal catcher, catching all six of his starts. The Pirates also prefer McKenry to catch McDonald, and five of his six starts have come with McKenry behind the dish. Rodriguez has made three starts with The Fort and Bedard made one.
There's no question that McKenry gives the Pirates a better chance to win than Barajas does. One thing I don't think people understand is that one catcher can't start every game. We're into September now, and these two have been at it all year long. All of the games this year have been caught by one of these two, so it's very probable that they're both probably pretty worked by now. You really have to split time at the catching position in this situation. It still seems like Barajas is getting more of the time, which is opposite of what should be happening. If the Pirates really think Burnett is that much better with Barajas, that's fine. But they need to find a way to get McKenry more than half the starts. I'd say it should be a 3-2 split with McKenry getting that 60%.
Is it a coincidence that the Pirates have three more wins in two less games with McKenry starting over Barajas? It probably is. Like I said, he really hasn't been doing much offensively either. Having McKenry behind the plate gives the Pirates a better chance to win, but not a much better chance. They need better performances from their starting pitchers to win, that is the bottomline. However, it just doesn't seem like the Pirates are doing the little things correctly here.
Monday 9/3 Minor League Roundup
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An absolutely ridiculous season finale was cut short due to rain after eight innings with Indianapolis getting the win and heading to its playoff series against Charlotte on Wednesday. How crazy was this one? Jeff Larish aimed to play all nine positions, and he was on track to do so as he actually recorded an out in the bottom of the seventh and only catching remained. But the game was called before Larish accomplished the rare feat. Even weirder, Larish was credited with the save! The wackiness didn't stop there: in order to get Larish on the mound, Jose Diaz, who is listed at 300 pounds but might weight more, played second base for a third of an inning. His spot came up to bat in the eighth inning, and he reached base on an error and moved to second. Diaz then somehow stole third base, which automatically has to qualify as the worst moment in Louisville catcher Brian Peacock's career. Diaz then scored on a single by Chase d'Arnaud, who had a 3-for-4 day. d'Arnaud, who was originally sent to Bradenton after his demotion from Pittsburgh, will likely remain with Indianapolis through its playoff stretch and then move back up to Pittsburgh at the conclusion of the Indians' season. Anderson Hernandez had two hits. Also, Chad Qualls pitched the first inning in a rehab outing and struck out all three batters he faced. Daniel McCutchen grabbed his seventh win of the year by pitching two innings of scoreless relief right after Qualls.
AA Altoona | Altoona 2 Erie 1
Altoona finished its season with a winning 72-70 record by edging Erie in its season finale. Brandon Cumpton pitched six innings and allowed one run on two hits with three walks and three strikeouts. Cumpton finished the season with a 12-11 record and a 3.84 ERA. Victor Black capped an amazing season by earning his 13th save with a scoreless ninth frame. Black had a 1.65 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 60 innings compared to 29 walks. Kelson Brown went 4-for-4 with a double to lead the Curve's offensive charge. The team was without stalwarts Matt Curry and Ramon Cabrera who were promoted to Indianapolis over the weekend to help for the playoff run. New starting catcher Charlie Cutler smacked two triples. Adalberto Santos went 0-for-5 but still finished the year with a .340 average.
A West Virginia | West Virginia 4 Delmarva 1
Zack von Rosenberg finished his season on an extremely high note by hurling a complete game against Delmarva and earning his fifth win of 2012. Von Rosenberg gave up one run in the Power's final contest of the year, and that was on a solo home run. Von Rosenberg allowed three hits and didn't walk a batter while fanning two. He lowered his ERA to 4.36 with the performance. Gregory Polanco sat out the finale, and Alen Hanson went 0-for-4 to drop his average to .309, which seems like a season-low right at the tail end, but it was still a breakout season for both Polanco and Hanson. Eric Avila probably wishes 2012 wasn't coming to a close, as he mashed right up to the end by going 3-for-4 with his 11th home run of the season and eighth since the beginning of August. Alex Fuselier also homered for the Power, which was his first in low-A. Dan Gamache went 2-for-4 and smacked his 40th double of the year and ended with a .285 average and .780 OPS.
A Bradenton | Bradenton
Bradenton's season finished on Sunday.
A State College | Williamsport 7 State College 2
Dilson Herrera has pounded the ball since his promotion from the Gulf Coast League last week, and did so on Monday by going 2-for-4 with a double and is now hitting .368. But the rest of the lifeless Spikes offense combined for just three other hits and Joely Rodriguez furthered his late-season blowup by getting shellacked for seven runs in 4.1 innings in a defeat to Williamsport. Samuel Gonzalez tripled and walked, and Jared Lakind and Chris Diaz had the only other hits for the Spikes. State College did walk nine times but couldn't take advantage enough and scored just two runs. Rodriguez allowed all seven runs on 11 hits while walking and striking out one apiece. Ryan Hafner finally had a good outing as the season winds down, as he pitched three shutout innings and gave up two hits and one walk with one strikeout to lower his Spikes' ERA to 6.08.
Thursday 8/30 Minor League Roundup
CommentsIn light of Alex Presley and McEffect favorite Kyle McPherson getting promotions to join the Pirates in Milwaukee tomorrow, the Indians still had matters to tend to in what was a tight knit game against Toledo. Despite only having six hits, with all of them coming from three guys, the Indians got the ball rolling early as ultra white hot Brock Holt lead off with his seventh two-bagger of the season and Matt Hague bringing him in two batters later. Toledo then countered with a two-run shot by Jerad Head in the third off of Indians starter Jo-Jo Reyes to tie the game up at two all. Down one, the Indians were able to tie it in the top half of the ninth with a clutch two out base hit by Christian Marrero to tie the game at four apiece. But the Mud Hens had their own answer with a crushing blow off the bat of Audy Ciriaco (YES he is the younger brother of current Red Sox and former Indianapolis/Pirates shortstop Pedro Ciriaco!!); a solo shot to give the Mud Hens the 5-4 victory in walk-off fashion. Now back to Brock Holt, who just continues to make Triple-A pitching look easy and dazzle at the plate, finished his night going 3-for-4 with a walk and an RBI. Tonight was Holt's FOURTH STRAIGHT three-hit performance as he is an godly 12 for his last 18 at-bats. He has put up unfathomable hitting numbers in 23 games as a member of the Tribe: .440 (40-for-91)/.480/.549 with an unheard of 1.029 OPS. Duke Welker threw a scoreless fourth and fifth only allowing two hits and striking out two. Bryan Morris, who could be in line for a promotion come September first, got the ball in the sixth and allowed two unearned runs thanks to a Tony Sanchez throwing error to first on a dropped third strike. Justin Wilson threw a perfect seventh as he was very efficient striking out the side on only 11 pitches. trying to notch a rare six out save, Doug Slaten was pegged with his fourth loss of the season as he was the victim of Ciriaco's walk-off home run.
AA Altoona | Altoona 6 Akron 4
Altoona used a five-run second inning to get an early start on rival Akron and held on for dear life and withstood a late-inning rally to emerge victorious. Matt Curry was the Curve's offensive star in this one. Curry went 2-for-4 with an RBI and his 34th double of the season. Curry has a .832 OPS with 11 home runs and 76 RBIs as he rounds out his solid first full season in AA. Backup catcher Charlie Cutler also went 2-for-4, he's hitting .293 in 140 at-bats. Andrew Lambo hit his first triple of the year, Adalberto Santos singled, walked and stole his 16th base, and Jeremy Farrell added a double and a walk for Altoona. Santos has fallen off slightly in August after his flaming return from the disabled list in July, but "falling off" to Santos means only hitting .300 for the month. On the season, Santos is hitting .347 with an .878 OPS in 219 at-bats. Kris Johnson led the Curve pitching staff in averting trouble despite dealing with three errors by the defense, two on second baseman Kelson Brown. Johnson allowed two unearned runs and seven hits over five innings of work for his third Altoona win. Johnson walked two and struck out four. Hunter Strickland allowed two runs in 2.1 innings thanks to serving up five hits. He did fan two. Jeff Inman got out of a Strickland jam in the eighth and Victor Black struck out two in the ninth to earn his 11th save. Black did walk one, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio is still 85:29 for the year.
A West Virginia | Game 1: West Virginia 2 Charleston 7 | Game 2: West Virginia 7 Charleston 1
Game 1:
The Power split a doubleheader with Charleston in games that were nearly carbon copies of each other but flipped so that each team got a turn at winning. In Game 1, which was a continuation of a suspended game from Wednesday night's doubleheader, Charleston hurler Philip Wetherell combined with Brett Gerritse (who started the game Wednesday night) to no-hit the Power through six innings. But Jose Osuna singled to break up the no-hit bid, and Taylor Lewis later singled to drive in both Osuna and Dan Gamache. That's all West Virginia could muster offensively. Alen Hanson stole his 33rd base of the season. Zach Fuesser had pitched three shutout innings on Wednesday night as the starter and he was strong, striking out three and allowing two hits and one walk. But Pat Ludwig started today's action and allowed his first runs as a member of the Power. Ludwig gave up two runs in two innings, and Joan Montero blew the game open by giving up five runs and six hits in the bottom of the sixth. That rendered Lewis' two-RBI single useless in the seventh. As a funny side note, old McEffect alum Casey McGehee took part in this game, as he was demoted by the Yankees a two days ago for Steve Pearce and New York sent him all the way to Low-A. McGehee went 2-for-2 in the first game.
Game 2:
The second game however was a complete 180, as Power starter Mike Jefferson only allowed one hit through five innings against Charleston. However, Charleston's only run came on a leadoff homer in the bottom of the sixth that ruined Jefferson's shutout. Jefferson still finished with his best start of the season, as he went six innings and gave up just two hits, one run and two walks with four strikeouts. The southpaw picked up his seventh win and lowered his ERA to 4.67 in the process. The powerful West Virginia tandem showed up in the nightcap, as Hanson and Gregory Polanco each produced a huge performance. Hanson went 2-for-2 with two walks, his 34th steal, 33rd double and 13th triple on the year. Polanco finished 2-for-4 and homered for the first time since missing two weeks with an ankle injury. The blast was Polanco's 16th for the Power. Hanson's OPS now stands at .922 while Polanco is just behind at .905. Lewis mirrored Hanson's output with a double and triple of his own in four at-bats. Eric Avila and Francisco Diaz also doubled for West Virginia, as seven of the team's eight hits in Game 2 went for extra bases. McGehee didn't have as much luck in the second game, he finished 0-for-2 with a walk for Charleston.
A Bradenton | Bradenton 1 St. Lucie 5
The Marauders played sloppy in the field and looked sloppy at the plate in a listless loss to St. Lucie. Bradenton committed four errors that led to four unearned runs that the pitching staff couldn't overcome. Kenn Kasparek allowed the only earned run over six innings and gave up three total. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out one. Aaron Pribanic followed with his first rehab outing in Bradenton after missing most of Altoona's season. Pribanic was wild with the GCL Pirates during the first part of his rehab and that continued tonight over his 1.2 innings. Pribanic walked four and gave up two hits, but both of the two runs he allowed were unearned. Andy Vasquez, who started in right field and collected two of the Marauders' six hits, pitched and recorded the final out on the mound. Carlos Paulino's fourth home run of 2012 accounted for Bradenton's only run and extra-base hit. Vasquez stole his seventh base of the year, but two other Marauders were thrown out trying to steal. Alex Dickerson went 0-for-4.
A State College | Game 1: State College 4 Jamestown 2 | Game 2: State College 1 Jamestown 2
Game 1:
In what was a shaky start for the young Mexican phenom Luis Heredia, the Spikes hitters were able to establish an early lead and later tack on enough insurance. It all started with Jesus Vazquez's big two-out, two-run single that plated Walker Gourley and Jacob Stallings. The Jammers were able to get a run off the big young righty Heredia in the first on a two-out double by Sharif Outman. Then the Spikes raised the Jammers with a two-bagger of their own off the bat of Jared Lakind that scored the Pride of Peters Township Jimmy Rider and made it a 3-2 game. That ended being all the Spikes needed as Josh Smith notched his second win and Kyle Haynes his seventh save. Heredia finished his night not being able to get through five full innings and earn the win as he exited the game with two outs and runners on the corners. His final line in four and two-thirds was two runs on four hits and three walks while striking out only two.
Game 2:
Now Game 2 was not as magical and jolly for the boys from Happy Valley. Just like their parent club the Pirates had done A LOT in April, May and most of August, they went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in Game 2. Despite a fantastic start by Dalton Friend, only allowing one hit in the third, the lineup could not come up in big situations. The Spikes had key opportunities early on such as Eric Wood striking out looking with runners on first and second in the first inning. Then in the second, Walker Gourley struck out swining with Jesus Vazquez on third and Jared Lakind on first. Their only run was weak and came via a wild pitch by Jamestown reliever Beau Wright. That is when you know you did not do enough offensively when your only run came on a wild pitch and you still could not win even with a great pitching performance. Friend's only blimp on the radar was the two unearned runs he allowed in the fifth after shortstop Chris Diaz committed his 16th error of the season. The top of the order in Walker Gourley, Chris Diaz, D.J. Crumlich and Samuel Gonzalez each had one hit. Eric Wood and Dilson Herrera made their Spikes debuts tonight after being called up from the recently crowned Gulf Coast League Champion Pirates. Both went 0-for-3 in their debuts.
Pirates Tiebreaker Records
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I detailed a bit of the playoff tiebreaking scenarios yesterday in this post. Now that the Pirates have completed their season series with the Cardinals, I wanted to update everybody on our head to head record with some of the teams we are competing or playoff spots with:
As it stands right now, the Reds are pretty much out of reach. The Pirates are nine games back with just 32 games left to play, so unless the Reds really collapse the Pirates will have to hope for a Wild Card spot.
Right now the Braves have the first Wild Card spot and are 3.5 games ahead of the Pirates. The Cardinals have the second spot and they are just 1 game ahead of us. The Dodgers are 1.5 behind the Pirates and 3.5 behind the Giants for their division lead. They play the Giants six more times this year, so that division is still very much up for grabs.
The Pirates will end the season tied with the Giants in terms of head-to-head record. If that tie needs to be broken, the Giants will have the edge over the Pirates because they have a better record against the National League. The only way it would come down to that is if there is a three way tie for a Wild Card spot, or if there is a two way tie for the first Wild Card spot.
As you can see, the final series of the year against the Braves could be a big one since the two teams are tied in the head-to-head records. What we do right now is that the Pirates have the tiebreak over the Cardinals, and don't have it over the Dodgers and Giants.
The ideal situation is for the Pirates to win enough down the stretch to win the first Wild Card spot and not have to worry about any tiebreaking situation, so let's just hope that happens.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Left |
| Cardinals | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Dodgers | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Giants | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Braves | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Reds | 6 | 6 | 3 |
As it stands right now, the Reds are pretty much out of reach. The Pirates are nine games back with just 32 games left to play, so unless the Reds really collapse the Pirates will have to hope for a Wild Card spot.
Right now the Braves have the first Wild Card spot and are 3.5 games ahead of the Pirates. The Cardinals have the second spot and they are just 1 game ahead of us. The Dodgers are 1.5 behind the Pirates and 3.5 behind the Giants for their division lead. They play the Giants six more times this year, so that division is still very much up for grabs.
The Pirates will end the season tied with the Giants in terms of head-to-head record. If that tie needs to be broken, the Giants will have the edge over the Pirates because they have a better record against the National League. The only way it would come down to that is if there is a three way tie for a Wild Card spot, or if there is a two way tie for the first Wild Card spot.
As you can see, the final series of the year against the Braves could be a big one since the two teams are tied in the head-to-head records. What we do right now is that the Pirates have the tiebreak over the Cardinals, and don't have it over the Dodgers and Giants.
The ideal situation is for the Pirates to win enough down the stretch to win the first Wild Card spot and not have to worry about any tiebreaking situation, so let's just hope that happens.
8/29 Recap | Pirates 5 Cardinals 0
CommentsFor the second night in a row the Pirates were led by dominant pitching and Pedro Alvarez’s home run stroke. Alvarez went 2/4 and hit a three run bomb in the 3rd inning to put the Pirates up 4-0, a lead which Wandy Rodriguez and company would hold easily.
Rodriguez went six innings and gave up no runs on three hits. He walked three and struck out the same number. Tony Watson, Jason Grilli, and Joel Hanrahan all pitched scoreless innings to finish out the game with ease.
8/29 Wandy Rodriguez Pitch F/X
Comments| Pitch Type | Veloc | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strike% |
| 4-Seam | 89.3 | 4.63 | 10.95 | 40 | 60.00% |
| Change | 83.5 | 7.80 | 6.71 | 10 | 50.00% |
| Curve | 75.5 | -4.04 | -8.11 | 19 | 63.16% |
| Cutter | 89.1 | 1.20 | 11.21 | 4 | 25.00% |
| 2-Seam | 89.1 | 9.13 | 7.59 | 23 | 65.22% |
Wednesday 8/29 Minor League Roundup
CommentsCoupled with a small control problem by issuing three free passes on the night, Jeff Locke still tossed an outstanding game and now has a 2.48 ERA on the season. But oddly enough, the southpaw Locke threw 78 pitches in four and two-thirds shutout innings while only allowing three hits and striking out seven. The decision for Indianapolis manager Dean Treanor to pull the dominant Locke after only 78 pitches and four and two-thirds could mean a promotion for Locke any day now. Fellow southpaw and now Pirate fan favorite Justin Wilson came into the fifth in relief for Locke and struck out his only batter. Bryan Morris made an appearance in the six but managed to only get two outs, allowing a run on two hits while only going two-thirds on . Jose Diaz and Evan Meek helped bridge the gap to recently announced International League Postseason All-Star closer Tim Wood for his 21st save. Now don't be in awe for what happened offensively tonight as it was like the ol' broken record. Surprise surprise, Brock Holt continues to tear apart International League pitching and leaving off where he left off while with the Curve! After going 3-for-5, his THIRD STRAIGHT three-hit game, Holt is now hitting a mind boggling .425 (37-for-87) in only 22 games with Indianapolis. Jeff Larish hit a clutch three-run shot in the Indians big four-run fifth inning that ended up being just enough to notch the victory. Anderson Hernandez also added two hits while the big monster and McEffect favorite Dallas McPherson actually looked human with one hit and two strikeouts.
AA Altoona | Altoona 2 Akron 1
Don't ask us how this was even possible, but the Zips collected 14 hits as a team tonight and managed to score only one run and lose. Yes, very awkward. Their ability with runners in scoring position was a woeful 3-for-16 with ten runners left on base. But credit that to the man that has had a great year and could be in line for a promotion to Triple-A; starter Brandon Cumpton. His pitching line noticeably shows the 11 hits allowed in 7 innings, but his ability to limit Akron to only one run shows he was a warrior on the hill. Tim Alderson came in and threw a scoreless eighth and ninth to notch his fifth win of the season. Tied after 1-1 after eight and a half, the Curve walked it off in crazy fashion as my favorite, the big Aussie Stefan Welch, drew a bases loaded walk for the 2-1 win. Gustavo Nunez, Adalberto Santos, and Stefan Welch each added two hits apiece. Santos, along with teammates Brandon Cumpton, Matt Curry, and Tyler Waldron will represent the Pirates organization in the prestigious Arizona Fall League for the Scottsdale Scorpions.
A West Virginia | West Virginia 0 Charleston 3
With offensive catalyst Alen Hanson with the night off, Ashley Ponce took his spot at shortstop and the offense only managed to squeak together two hits against RiverDogs pitching in a shortened game. Those lone two hits came on the shoulders of Taylor Lewis and Gregory Polanco in the first and fourth, respectively. The story of the night for the Power was the high number of ground outs induced by Charleston starter Bryan Mitchell. In his six innings, Mitchell was able to get nine Power hitters out via the ground out. Obviously Power starter Zach Von Rosenberg was not able to enough help offensively by his teammates. The young right hander managed to give up only three runs (two earned) and kept his team in the game unlike most of his starts this season.
A Bradenton | Bradenton 8 Fort Myers 9
After being rained out twice because of Hurricane Issac coming through the Gulf Coast, it felt like the hurricane was still in full force. In an offensive barrage where 17 runs and 26 hits were generated between the two teams in a tightly contested game. The story of the night offensively for the Marauders was the toolsy Mel Rojas Jr., who probably had his best overall game as a professional and was a double away from the cycle. He finished his magnificent night going 4-for-5 with an early two-run blast in the the first; his sixth of the season. His next at-bat in the third, he added a run-scoring "trip, trip, triple"; his 12th of the season. With that, Rojas now leads the Florida State League in triples. Recently announced Florida State League Player of the Year Alex Dickerson went 2-for-5 with two RBI and two strikeouts. Andy Howard, Justin Howard, and Benji Gonzalez each had two hits. Then on the day of being announced to represent the Pirates in the prestigious Arizona Fall League with Matt Curry, Brandon Cumpton, Aldaberto Santos, and Tyler Waldon, the Pride of South Africa Gift Ngoepe went 1-for-3 with two strikeouts. Starter Elicer Navarro allowed three earned runs on six hits and four walks in four innings of work on the bump. But Emmanuel De Leon was the Bradenton arm that was touched up the most, being held responsible for the huge six-run inning for Fort Myers in top half of the six. Quinton Miller and Zach Foster both made appearances in the game and went scoreless in their outings.
A State College | State College 4 Auburn 6
In a game where the Spikes got off to an early lead after three, being the owners of a 4-1 lead with the young righty Adrian Sampson on the hill for them. Then, the wheels started to come off in the fourth as the 2012 Fifth Round pick Sampson allowed two more runs to make it a 4-3 game after his five innings. From then on out, it was all Auburn as they touched up Spikes reliever Issac Sanchez for three runs on two hits and two walks. The big blow in the inning was the two run, two-out triple by Auburn lead-off man Mike McQuillan. With the sticks, Walker Gourley went 2-for-5 with an RBI and two strikeouts. Chris Diaz also went 2-for-5 and Peters Township native Jimmy Rider got the start at second while going 2-for-3 with a walk.
For those who did not pick it up in the roundups or have not already heard, here are the players that were selected to represent the Pittsburgh Pirates organization in the Arizona Fall League:
Brandon Cumpton: 11-11, 4.07 ERA
Tyler Waldron: 1-2, 4.01 ERA in Double-A; 7-8, 5.09 ERA in Single-A
Aldaberto Santos: .344/.433/.439, 2 HR, 25 RBI
Matt Curry: .285/.351/.481, 11 HR, 75 RBI
Gift Ngoepe: .236/.333/.345, 9 HR, 36 RBI
Who Should Replace Bedard in the Rotation?
Comments
The Pirates cut Erik Bedard this week after another rough start from the left-hander. We're past that now and on to trying to figure out who should take his spot in the rotation.
After the Pirates conclude their series with the Cardinals tonight, they have an off day on Thursday before going to Milwaukee for a three game set. Because of the off day, the Pirates are going to roll with a four man rotation. So here's the pitching probables:
Wednesday vs. Cardinals: Wandy Rodriguez
Friday at Brewers: Jeff Karstens
Saturday at Brewers: A.J. Burnett
Sunday at Brewers: James McDonald
Monday vs. Astros: Wandy Rodriguez
Tuesday is when the problem comes in. Karstens will have only had three days rest, so the Pirates will need someone else to make the start.
Kevin Correia is still in the bullpen and he immediately became the front runner to fill the void. I'm not so sure the Pirates will go that direction though. Here are your other options with their 2012 stats:
Kevin Correia: 25 G, 22 GS, 4.53 ERA, 4.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.344 WHIP
Justin Wilson: 27 G, 25 GS, 3.82 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.169 WHIP
Jeff Locke: 23 G, 23 GS, 2.56 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.190 WHIP
Kyle McPherson: 12 G, 12 GS, 3.22 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 1.104 WHIP (9 starts in AA)
Chris Leroux: 22 G, 8 GS, 3.10 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.035 WHIP
Note that Leroux isn't currently on the 40 man roster, but there is a spot available after the release of Bedard.
Correia is by far the worst pitcher up there by statistics, obviously he's been pitching at a higher level the entire year so you would expect that, but I still don't think anybody would argue that he's not the best pitcher listed. Management has been pretty consistent this year in showing that they would rather play veterans instead of rookies, and that could factor into the equation here.
Leroux has some major league experience. In his career he's pitched 54.1 innings in the show, however he's never made a major league start. He had a lot of success last year in the Pirates bullpen, putting up a 2.88 ERA while striking out 8.6 batters per nine. That could give him a leg up on the competition.
Wilson and Locke have an advantage because they are both left handed. Typically, big league rotations want to have at least two lefties in the rotation, although just having one isn't uncommon either. If the Pirates want to keep the two lefty look, they'll have to pick one of these guys. Both of them have been up for brief periods of time, but only because the Pirates had a tired bullpen and needed some innings from them to help everyone else get rested. The Pirates had opportunities to get these two guys starts earlier in the year when Brad Lincoln was spot starting and Correia was pitching poorly, but they elected to keep them in the minor leagues. That doesn't bode well for them. If the Pirates weren't comfortable with them in a May game, why would they be comfortable with them in one of the season's final 30 games when the team is in contention for a playoff spot?
If it is one of these two, I would expect it to be Wilson. He has a better arm and a better fastball, which is what you would look for with a guy that you need immediate success from. Locke may be a better pitcher and a better bet down the line, but Wilson seems to give you a better chance to win games right now.
McPherson is a guy that I don't really think has much of a chance. He's only made three starts above the AA level along with two innings of major league relief after that 19 inning game when the Pirates had to burn the next day's starting pitcher. They probably really didn't want to call him up then, and I'm sure they don't want to rush him up now. There are other options, so I really don't think McPherson should even be considered here.
If it were my choice to make I'd take Wilson, but I really do think it's going to be either Leroux or Correia. Leroux isn't a bad option, he has a good arm and has had big league success before. We know what we're going to get from Correia and honestly it's not a whole lot better than what we were getting from Bedard.
We've got some time to speculate and talk about it, as the Pirates won't need to make this decision until Monday or Tuesday sometime. Let me know what you think.
After the Pirates conclude their series with the Cardinals tonight, they have an off day on Thursday before going to Milwaukee for a three game set. Because of the off day, the Pirates are going to roll with a four man rotation. So here's the pitching probables:
Wednesday vs. Cardinals: Wandy Rodriguez
Friday at Brewers: Jeff Karstens
Saturday at Brewers: A.J. Burnett
Sunday at Brewers: James McDonald
Monday vs. Astros: Wandy Rodriguez
Tuesday is when the problem comes in. Karstens will have only had three days rest, so the Pirates will need someone else to make the start.
Kevin Correia is still in the bullpen and he immediately became the front runner to fill the void. I'm not so sure the Pirates will go that direction though. Here are your other options with their 2012 stats:
Kevin Correia: 25 G, 22 GS, 4.53 ERA, 4.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.344 WHIP
Justin Wilson: 27 G, 25 GS, 3.82 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.169 WHIP
Jeff Locke: 23 G, 23 GS, 2.56 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.190 WHIP
Kyle McPherson: 12 G, 12 GS, 3.22 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 1.104 WHIP (9 starts in AA)
Chris Leroux: 22 G, 8 GS, 3.10 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.035 WHIP
Note that Leroux isn't currently on the 40 man roster, but there is a spot available after the release of Bedard.
Correia is by far the worst pitcher up there by statistics, obviously he's been pitching at a higher level the entire year so you would expect that, but I still don't think anybody would argue that he's not the best pitcher listed. Management has been pretty consistent this year in showing that they would rather play veterans instead of rookies, and that could factor into the equation here.
Leroux has some major league experience. In his career he's pitched 54.1 innings in the show, however he's never made a major league start. He had a lot of success last year in the Pirates bullpen, putting up a 2.88 ERA while striking out 8.6 batters per nine. That could give him a leg up on the competition.
Wilson and Locke have an advantage because they are both left handed. Typically, big league rotations want to have at least two lefties in the rotation, although just having one isn't uncommon either. If the Pirates want to keep the two lefty look, they'll have to pick one of these guys. Both of them have been up for brief periods of time, but only because the Pirates had a tired bullpen and needed some innings from them to help everyone else get rested. The Pirates had opportunities to get these two guys starts earlier in the year when Brad Lincoln was spot starting and Correia was pitching poorly, but they elected to keep them in the minor leagues. That doesn't bode well for them. If the Pirates weren't comfortable with them in a May game, why would they be comfortable with them in one of the season's final 30 games when the team is in contention for a playoff spot?
If it is one of these two, I would expect it to be Wilson. He has a better arm and a better fastball, which is what you would look for with a guy that you need immediate success from. Locke may be a better pitcher and a better bet down the line, but Wilson seems to give you a better chance to win games right now.
McPherson is a guy that I don't really think has much of a chance. He's only made three starts above the AA level along with two innings of major league relief after that 19 inning game when the Pirates had to burn the next day's starting pitcher. They probably really didn't want to call him up then, and I'm sure they don't want to rush him up now. There are other options, so I really don't think McPherson should even be considered here.
If it were my choice to make I'd take Wilson, but I really do think it's going to be either Leroux or Correia. Leroux isn't a bad option, he has a good arm and has had big league success before. We know what we're going to get from Correia and honestly it's not a whole lot better than what we were getting from Bedard.
We've got some time to speculate and talk about it, as the Pirates won't need to make this decision until Monday or Tuesday sometime. Let me know what you think.
Massive Game in Pittsburgh Tonight
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Winning a baseball game means the same thing in the standings regardless of whether it's in April, August, or September. However, tonight's late August contest against the Cardinals means more to the Pirates than any game has meant all year. That's not to say that there won't be a more important game coming soon, but for right now we are patiently awaiting the biggest game that our hometown baseball team has played in quite some time.
The season series with the St. Louis Cardinals will be wrapped up tonight. Right now, the series is tied at seven wins a piece and the Cardinals lead the Pirates by two games in the Wild Card standings. The Reds are running away with the division and have a seven game lead on the Cardinals (which means they are nine games up on the Pirates). These two teams have only Wild Card hopes for the postseason, which means games they play against other Wild Card contenders are of elevated importance.
That's not the only reason this game is as big as it is. With the new Wild Card spot, new Wild Card tiebreaking rules came. If two teams are tied for a division lead or the second wild card berth, they will still play a one-game playoff to determine who makes the postseason. However, if two teams are tied for the first wild card spot, the tiebreaking procedures go like this:
Now if there is a three way tie for the Wild Card (which very well could happen as the Dodgers and Giants are both very close to the records of the Cardinals and Pirates), there is an even more complex tiebreaking system. The three tied teams would be ranked by head-to-head record, and then the following would happen: Team A hosts Team B, winner gets first Wild Card spot, loser plays Team C the next day and the winner gets the second Wild Card spot. So having the better head-to-head record against your Wild Card competition is incredibly important.
Right now the Pirates are tied with the Cardinals, that tie will be broken tonight. The Dodgers beat the Pirates six of the seven times they played, so they would be ranked ahead of the Pirates. The Pirates and Giants are tied at 3 in the season series with no games left to play. My guess would be that the tie would be broken by the above procedures there. The Giants went 7-8 in interleague play, and the Pirates went 10-8, which would give the Giants a better record against the National League and give them the higher seed or home field advantage in an event of a tie that isn't broken by a one game playoff.
This whole new playoff system wasn't thought out as well as it probably should have been. Right now the season ends on Wednesday, October 3rd. The Wild Card game is schedule to be played on Friday the 5th. That leaves one day to break ties. In the event of a three-way tie, you'd have to play two games in one day. Ummm? Al Yellon wrote this article about some of the complications that may happen.
I kind of got away from the point a little bit here, but it still stands: the Pirates would really be put in a better spot by winning tonight's game, and it goes beyond being either one or three games behind the Cardinals in the standings tomorrow morning.
The season series with the St. Louis Cardinals will be wrapped up tonight. Right now, the series is tied at seven wins a piece and the Cardinals lead the Pirates by two games in the Wild Card standings. The Reds are running away with the division and have a seven game lead on the Cardinals (which means they are nine games up on the Pirates). These two teams have only Wild Card hopes for the postseason, which means games they play against other Wild Card contenders are of elevated importance.
That's not the only reason this game is as big as it is. With the new Wild Card spot, new Wild Card tiebreaking rules came. If two teams are tied for a division lead or the second wild card berth, they will still play a one-game playoff to determine who makes the postseason. However, if two teams are tied for the first wild card spot, the tiebreaking procedures go like this:
- The team with the best record in head to head play.
- The team with the best overall record ignoring interleague play.
- The team with the best record in the final 81 games of the season, ignoring interleague play.
- The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, extending backward until the tie is broken (since teams in the same division play each other as many as 19 times, this step is guaranteed to break the tie. Interleague games are skipped and ignored in this process.)
Now if there is a three way tie for the Wild Card (which very well could happen as the Dodgers and Giants are both very close to the records of the Cardinals and Pirates), there is an even more complex tiebreaking system. The three tied teams would be ranked by head-to-head record, and then the following would happen: Team A hosts Team B, winner gets first Wild Card spot, loser plays Team C the next day and the winner gets the second Wild Card spot. So having the better head-to-head record against your Wild Card competition is incredibly important.
Right now the Pirates are tied with the Cardinals, that tie will be broken tonight. The Dodgers beat the Pirates six of the seven times they played, so they would be ranked ahead of the Pirates. The Pirates and Giants are tied at 3 in the season series with no games left to play. My guess would be that the tie would be broken by the above procedures there. The Giants went 7-8 in interleague play, and the Pirates went 10-8, which would give the Giants a better record against the National League and give them the higher seed or home field advantage in an event of a tie that isn't broken by a one game playoff.
This whole new playoff system wasn't thought out as well as it probably should have been. Right now the season ends on Wednesday, October 3rd. The Wild Card game is schedule to be played on Friday the 5th. That leaves one day to break ties. In the event of a three-way tie, you'd have to play two games in one day. Ummm? Al Yellon wrote this article about some of the complications that may happen.
I kind of got away from the point a little bit here, but it still stands: the Pirates would really be put in a better spot by winning tonight's game, and it goes beyond being either one or three games behind the Cardinals in the standings tomorrow morning.
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