Mets Will Regret Losing Nick Evans, via METSMERIZED ONLINE

Stumbled across this article on a Mets blog today, interesting read regarding the Pirates recent signing of Nick Evans. Click on the image to check it out.

Clint Hurdle's Influence

The Pirates are rumored to have interest in Aaron Cook. I wrote about that and more earlier today, so be sure to check that post out.

What I want to talk about now is a trend that I have picked up on, and I'm sure most of you have as well.

Pirates management seems to like trying to solve their player needs by getting players that have at some point in time played for the Rockies. Obviously the big signing last week was Clint Barmes, who spent most of his career in the Rockies and was part of the 2007 team that Hurdle took to the World Series. Other than Barmes, Michael McKenry, a former Rockie farmhand, was signed by the Pirates last summer to provide catching depth, and much of the same came with the signing of Matt Pagnozzi. Also, the Pirates gave Garrett Atkins a chance last year by signing him and watching him in spring training.

The Pirates were also heavily interested in Jeff Francis last year, and could try to get him again this year, along with the aforementioned Cook.

So that's six names, and Hurdle has only been here for a year now, and the trend seems to be growing.

I don't understand it. It's not like the Pirates don't have a ton of scouts out checking on every team all over the map. They don't need Hurdle's inside information on players just because they were in the system when he worked there. Information for every player is available to anyone who wants it, basically.

And it's not like any of these players helped the Pirates out. They didn't know something that everyone else didn't, because McKenry, Atkins, and Pagnozzi never did anything (except that one home run from McKenry which got everyone thinking he was an all-star).

It's possible that the Pirates are using Hurdle as bait for players. Maybe they just can't get the players they want, but they have an advantage over teams with former Rockies because they like Hurdle, who knows. Either way you look at it, it's not helping the team. The Pirates have been picking up the Rockies garbage and trying to make something out of it for a year now, and it hasn't helped us at all yet.

Barmes could be an exception, and it was kind of impressive that the Pirates got him to agree to sign so quickly (although that was probably more because of the fact that they were willing to overpay him, but it could have had something to do with Hurdle). It will be interesting to see what happens with Cook and Francis this offseason and to look beyond that to see if the Pirates chase after any other former Rockies or even some Rangers that were on the team when Hurdle was coaching for them.

What's Next for the Pirates Offseason?

The Pirates have made two moves in free agency already this offseason with the additions of Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes. In my eyes, that is only the beginning.

There have been speculations of trades. Andrew McCutchen's name came up recently, but Dejan Kovacevic calmed the storms about that pretty quickly. Joel Hanrahan's name has also been brought up (mainly by bloggers) because of the huge market for top of the line closers that we've seen this offseason. It appears that the Pirates could get quite a good return for Hanrahan and fill some bigger needs that they have, which I would be totally for.

That said, I don't think the Pirates will be making any big trades this offseason, but I do think they'll sign another player or two.

One thing they will definitely be looking for is starting pitchers. Last year the team added Kevin Correia and Scott Olsen. They got a good half season out of Correia and got absolutely nothing out of Olsen. Now they are faced with an ugly rotation of Morton-McDonald-Correia-Karstens-Lincoln (with Ohlendorf still slightly in the mix). Nobody would argue the Pirates trying to improve that starting five. While I would like to see the Pirates give Brad Lincoln a full shot at the big league level, I can do without Jeff Karstens or Kevin Correia in the rotation. If I were the Pirates, I'd sign a capable big league starter and have Karstens start the year in the bullpen. That might not be the most fair thing considering the season he put up, but nevertheless that's what I would do.

So what are the options? It really comes down to eight names. Those names are: Paul Maholm, Chris Capuano, Erik Bedard, Joel Pineiro, Jeff Francis, Aaron Harang, Aaron Cook, and Rich Harden.

MLB Trade Rumors recently reported that the Pirates have interest in Cook, which isn't surprising since he previously had a relationship with Clint Hurdle (more on in a post later today).

I think the strongest candidate is Chris Capuano, who posted a 4.55 ERA and a markedly better 3.67 xFIP last year. Bill James projects him to post a 4.12 ERA with 7.53 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9 in 2012. Tim at Pirates Prospects thinks Capuano is a nice fit for the Pirates as well, so check that article out.

My guy however is Erik Bedard. I love the high-ceiling guys (even though the fact that the player is wearing a Pirates uniform always seems to take away that ceiling), and Bedard is the highest ceiling guy in the bunch. He posted a nifty 3.62 ERA in 24 starts last year, striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings and walking 3.3. The issue with him is injuries. Before last year, he hadn't made over 15 starts since 2007. The Pirates have some mediocre depth at starting pitching, so they could absorb Bedard missing a little bit of time, but if they only get a half season out of him it could really kill us.

At the end of the day, it's probably really not going to matter who the Pirates get. This team isn't one that looks like they can get close to competing. There's really no reason to believe that they'll improve at all from last year, which is really sad to say.

My prediction is that the Clint Hurdle effect will win out once again, the Pirates will sign Aaron Cook and he'll put up a very mediocre season. That'll be awesome.

Pujols, Fielder, Astros, NL Central

We're getting into the thick of the offseason here and the Albert Pujols rumors are heating up. Most recently the Chicago Cubs have been mentioned in the discussions. There is a good chance that the Cubs are just trying to up the bidding price for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins (that's gonna sound weird for awhile), but they were one of the contenders from the beginning and it's no surprise to hear that they're still interested.

Much of the same is going on with Prince Fielder, who is almost certainly not coming back to Milwaukee. The Washington Nationals are the leader for him as far as I know, so there's a very good chance he'll be leaving the division.

If Pujols and Fielder both end up playing outside of the National League Central next year, the Pirates playoff chances automatically go up. The Pirates chances also will be helped if (more like when) the Astros leave the division.

That's three big things pushing the Pirates closer and closer to contention. The division hasn't been great the last few years, let's take a quick look at the last 5 division winners and their win totals:

2011: Brewers - 96 wins
2010: Reds - 91 wins
2009: Cardinals - 91 wins
2008: Cubs - 97 wins
2007: Cubs - 85 wins

This year's Brewers and 2008's Cardinals were the only really good regular season teams there. The Brewers and Cardinals are both at risk to get significantly worse with the huge losses of their first basemen, so this division could be won with another low-90's win total.

Are the Pirates in position to win 90+ games in 2012? No, it certainly doesn't seem like it. However, the fact is, the Pirates are going to have a very good chance at competing in their division the next 3-5 years; now is as good a time at any to put together a real big league team. The rebuilding stuff has been underway for awhile and we've started to see some results of that at the major league level, but it hasn't translated into real competition yet.

The fact is that the Pirates are going to need pitching to have a chance to compete. They aren't going to have an offensive juggernaut any time soon, although they have the potential to be a good unit. If Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon reach the major leagues in the next two years and reach somewhere near their potential, while Andrew McCutchen continues to improve and the Pirates get some offense from Jose Tabata and/or Pedro Alvarez, I think this team could reasonably flirt with 90-95 wins. There's a good chance that that win total would be enough to win the division crown.

In addition to that, apparently there will be another wild card team added in the next two years (it could be as early as next season), so that also helps the Pirates playoff chances a lot.

I really don't think the Pirates are going to compete 2012, but we get closer and closer everyday that Taillon, Cole, and some of the other young prospects get closer to the big leagues.

This is an extremely crucial period of three years for the Pirates, and if they don't break the streak of losing seasons in this span, it might never happen.

More stuff coming soon. Keep reading.

Another Sabermetric Look At Tim Tebow

There isn't a more interesting or intriguing story in sports right now than what Tim Tebow is doing with the Denver Broncos. Tebow has started six games behind center and has now won five of them. The man did all of that without passing for more than 161 yards in any single game. Let's take a look at the numbers that they don't talk about.

Here's Tebow's saber metric season, click here to get the explanation of what the statistics mean from advancednflstats.com.

-0.29 WPA, -13.6 EPA, -0.04 WPA/G, -0.05 EPA/P, 38.0 SR%, 34.3 %DEEP, 4.4 AYPA

Even if you don't fully understand the concepts of saber metrics in football, you can tell that those numbers are not good. You can (kind of) say that every time Tebow throws or runs the ball, the Broncos are losing points (based on that EPA/P) number. Now that's pretty deceptive to say, but it compares him to an average NFL quarterback. Let's look at Tebow's saber metric performance on a game-by-game basis.

Week 7 vs. MIA: -0.03 WPA, 2.1 EPA
Week 8 vs. DET: -0.22 WPA, -26.9 EPA
Week 9 vs. OAK: -0.03 WPA, 4.6 EPA
Week 10 vs. KC: 0.04 WPA, 1.8 EPA
Week 11 vs. NYJ: 0.29 WPA, -0.1 EPA
Week 12 vs. SD: -0.23 WPA, -0.2 EPA

How is a guy that has cost his team win probability in four of the six games he has started led his team to a 5-1 record? Mind boggling? Maybe.

It's actually not all that mind boggling when you look at the facts. The strength of schedule hasn't been the toughest for Tebow. Detroit, Oakland, and New York are the only winning teams he has faced, but that's half of the games he has started, and a 50% winning vs. losing opponents percentage is what you would expect to happen mathematically, right? However, Oakland isn't a great winning team, the Jets have big issues and the Lions have been struggling a good bit since starting hot. So there's that.

Also, the Broncos defense has played much better and Willis McGahee has been spectacular for them. Tebow truly has not been asked to do much. The most he has thrown the ball in one game in a win was 27 times against Miami. He has thrown the ball 46 times in his last three games (completing just 20 of those passes I might add).

Tebow has almost become a run-first quarterback. In his six starts, he has carried the ball 71 times for 418 yards (an average of 5.9 yards per carry). That seems to be helping his team in their new run-first mentality.

One thing you can say positively for Tebow is that he has not been turning the ball over. He has just one interception and one lost fumble. Two turnovers in six games is a great ratio, especially for an unexperienced quarterback like Tebow (although if he were to throw the ball at a league average rate, I'm sure the interceptions would be higher).

I'm going to continue to be logical for at least one more paragraph. All precedent, logic, and mathematics suggest that Tebow's success is only temporary and his poor play at the quarterback position will eventually lead to some losses for his team. Outside of this Tebow thing, my school of thought for sports follows the math and logic pathway.

HOWEVER, Tebow is something else. There's something about the guy. Warning: I'm about to get religious.

I myself am a dedicated Christian much like Tebow; I've even perfected by morning Tebow-stance prayers. I never thought that God had any direct influence on the outcome of sports events, and I still don't. However, this Tebow stuff has me questioning some things. I still don't believe that this guy is winning games because he is a Christian, that seems illogical and unfair, but it does make you wonder, doesn't it?

If Tebow leads his team to the playoffs, I may revisit that side of this whole story, but for now I'm going to stick with the statistics.

Any way you cut it, you want to watch this guy play. He is a great thing for the game and will add major intrigue for the rest of this football season.

Matt Kemp vs. Ryan Braun

Matt Kemp in 2011:
161 G, 602 AB, 115 R, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, .324 AVG, .399 OBP, .586 SLG, .419 wOBA, 8.7 WAR
Ryan Braun in 2011:
150 G, 563 AB, 109 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 33 SB, .332 AVG, .397 OBP, .597 SLG, .433 wOBA, 7.8 WAR

I suppose you could make an argument for picking Braun over Kemp for 2011 National League MVP, but it would be a stretch. Kemp hit 6 more home runs, had 15 more RBI, stole 7 more bases, and was worth almost a full win more to his team than Braun. Not many people would argue against the fact that Kemp had a better season than Braun, but I guess this award isn't about who was the best player in the league.

But shouldn't it be? Did Matt Kemp have anything to do with the Dodgers 79 losses? Did Kemp have any measurable influence on his team's horrid bullpen and poor performance in close games? No, Kemp was incredible all year long. He had one of the best offensive seasons we have seen in a long time, but he gets screwed out of an award he rightfully deserved because his team didn't compete? That doesn't make sense to me.

I can understand an argument that says that a player isn't as valuable to his team if they don't make the playoffs anyway. If Kemp would have had an average season, the Dodgers still would have been in the same spot as before, but if Braun had an average season, his Brewers might not have made it the whole way to the NLCS. However, why would it make sense to give out the MVP trophy only to players that had good teams around them? It's not fair. Kemp and Braun could only do so much for their teams, and they both did about everything they could, the rest was up to their teammates, a factor that they have no impact on. Why let a factor that the player doesn't influence decide who wins the award? Doesn't that just sound stupid?

If you're trying to pick the better of two options at your job, and one looks a little bit better than the other one, would you flip a coin to make your final decision? No, you would look deeper into it and figure out which one is actually better, you wouldn't leave it to random chance. Major League Baseball let random chance decide the NL MVP this year. Braun and Kemp did not determine how their teammates played this year, it was a random variable, and that was the final decision maker for the MVP award.

How about we give the award to the player who had the best season and not worry about the factors around that they couldn't influence? Or maybe just add a new award, that doesn't have a name that can be taken in different ways. "The Best Player Award". Value is relative, so let's not complicate things. I can understand giving an award to a player that did the most to help his team have relevant success, but taking an award away from a player that had a better season doesn't make sense to me.

Ryan Braun had a great season in 2011, but he was not the best player in his league. Maybe there's more to the MVP award than just being the best, but it shouldn't be that way. Give the award to the player that had the best season and stop letting random factors make decisions.

New CBA Puts Pressure on Prospects

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement for Major League Baseball was announced today, and it was not kind to the Pirates. Basically, the Pirates can no longer sign draft picks at over-slot prices (e.g. how they got Josh Bell, Robbie Grossman, Nick Kingham, etc.), which takes away one of the only chances the Pirates had to compete with the big market teams. I'm not going to get into the details, because other bloggers explain it better than I can.

For more information on the new CBA and how it affects the Pirates, read these posts from North Side Notch and Pirates Prospects.

The point that I want to bring up is how this indirectly adds more pressure onto the prospects that the Pirates already have in the system.

The Pirates have spent more money in the draft the last few years than any other team, which has given us some hope for the future. We have a lot of really high-ceiling guys in the lower levels of the minor leagues that are providing a feint light at the end of the tunnel. However, since the Pirates can no longer get top prospects outside of the first round (since they can't convince guys to pass on their other commitments to turn pro with huge bonuses that other teams wouldn't offer), they are going to have to hit on the prospects they already have in the system if they want any chance of competing. Obviously, the Pirates cannot compete in free agency; they can't even afford to keep the players they have developed themselves for a long period of time, they just don't have the money.

So if the current group of guys that is making the future bright fail to ever do anything in the major leagues, there is no way I can see this Pirates team competing for a World Series any time in the future. That group of guys is Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, Stetson Allie, Luis Heredia, Josh Bell, and Robbie Grossman, along with some of the upper-level prospects like Starling Marte and Tony Sanchez. If we don't get major league production out of at least 50-60 percent of those guys, it's going to be extremely tough for the Pirates to ever have a chance of competing.

The Pirates have a lot of young talent, and they are definitely improving. Last year they showed some really good signs which makes the future more exciting, but this CBA really kills us. The Pirates have 3-4 arms in the lower levels that could turn into aces. If none of them do, we're screwed. It is extremely hard to win without a strong pitching staff, and the Pirates haven't had one of those in a long time. They have the chance to have a dominating staff, and at this point it seems like that is our only chance.

We know this for sure, the days of the Pirates using the draft to stock up on really strong prospects by going over slot to sign guys that other teams are scared to lose a draft pick on are over. The new CBA just makes the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. It makes absolutely no sense and it just another slap in the face to baseball fans everywhere.

I don't understand how this could get through, and it really shows the greed and sheer idiocy of the people running Major League Baseball.

You can't change the rules though, so the next few years of development in these prospects is absolutely crucial to the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Keep a close eye on the lower levels of the system next summer, because that is going to be the telling factor of the Pirates future playoff hopes.

Prospect Profile - Robbie Grossman

Name: Robbie Grossman Position: Outfielder Birth Date: September 16, 1989 Height: 6'1'' Weight: 190 Bats: Switch Throws: Left College/HS: Cypress Fairbanks HS Acquired: 2008 Draft, 6th Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Grossman has been one of the system's biggest surprises the last couple years. He is one of the most mature hitters at the lower levels of the system, drawing an astounding 104 walks in 134 games at Bradenton in 2011. For his career, Grossman has hit .268/.380/.383, but hit .294/.418/.451 with 13 home runs last year. He progressed significantly from 2010 to 2011 with more power and basically improving every element of his game, which is very good to see from a prospect at the lower levels. There are definitely some big questions with Grossman which will begin to be answered by seeing how he does in 2012 as he moves up in the system, but he could turn into a good major leaguer. We don't know how much power he will develop, my guess wouldn't be a huge amount but some. He's still extremely young, so it's hard to project him. He was a late round draft pick which tells me he lacks some raw skill. It will be interesting to see what Grossman does in 2012, he's definitely one of the guys I will have a close eye on.

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Prospect Profile - Josh Bell

Name: Josh Bell Position: Outfielder Birth Date: August 8, 1992 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 195 Bats: Switch Throws: Right College/HS: Jesuit College Prep Acquired: 2011 Draft, 2nd Round Major League ETA: 2014

McEffect Report: one of the biggest positives for the Pirates in 2012 was signing 2nd round draft pick Josh Bell. A possible top-10 talent, Bell was passed up by every team in the first round because of doubts that they could sign him. The Pirates took a dive and ended up getting him to sign to the tune of five million dollars. Bell has big time power with plus bat skills in general. This kid (and I can actually call him a kid because he's one of the few I'm actually older than) could be the power bat the Pirates have been waiting for for some time now (since Pedro Alvarez has yet to really turn it on). Bell will make his professional debut in 2012 and start in Bradenton or West Virginia. It's hard (for me at least) to pinpoint how fast he'll move through the system, but an ETA of 2014 sounds reasonable. Keep a close eye on Bell if you can, he's a huge part to the Pirates system.

Prospect Profile - Colton Cain

Name: Colton Cain Position: Left Handed Pitcher Birth Date: February 5, 1991 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 225 Bats: Left Throws: Left College/HS: Waxahachie HS (TX) Acquired: 2009 Draft, 8th Round Major League ETA: 2014

McEffect Report: Colton Cain was one of those guys the Pirates signed well above slot for the round he was chosen in in the 2009 draft. He was given a bonus of over 1 million dollars to skip college and come straight to the Pirates. He made his professional debut in 2010 and showed that he indeed has potential, but also has a lot to work on. He posted a 5.03 ERA in A- ball in 2010 with 8.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. He followed that up with a full season in A ball in 2011 where he posted a 3.64 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. It was discouraging to see his strikeouts go down last year, and even more discouraging to see his velocity drop from mid-90's to the high 80's, but his potential is not lost yet. He has been very inconsistent in his career thus far, showing good signs and bad, so there's not much we can say for sure about him. He will probably start 2012 in Bradenton's rotation, and it will be very interesting to see how he handles it.

Prospect Profile - Clay Holmes

Name: Clay Holmes Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: March 27, 1993 Height: 6'5'' Weight: 230 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Slocomb HS, AL Acquired: 2011 Draft, 9th Round Major League ETA: 2015

McEffect Report: Clay Holmes is one of the youngest prospects in the system. He came right out of high school to be drafted in the 9th round of the 2011 draft. He has a low 90's fastball and a slider that has upside but still needs a lot of work. This was another guy the Pirates got by going over slot to sign him, so his talent level is much higher than an average 9th round pick. He has a rough delivery that will be worked on, but he could turn out to be a pretty good pitcher someday.

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Prospect Profile - Alen Hanson

Name: Alen Hanson Position: Shortstop Birth Date: October 22, 1992 Height: 5'11'' Weight: 152 Bats: Switch Throws: Right College/HS: n/a Acquired: International Sign, 2009 Major League ETA: 2015

McEffect Report: Alen Hanson is one of the Pirates few middle infield prospects. He is also one of the least known guys in the system. He was signed in 2009 and has played 123 games thus far in his career. In those games he has hit .294/.367/.434 and has stolen 44 bases. He hasn't been reached a higher level than A-. There isn't a ton that I can say about this guy just because of his lack of experience and the fact that he has played at such low levels so far. He's only 19 years old, so he has a long ways to go before we can really start classifying him. He isn't the best glove but has upside in that category and has had some issues with strikeouts, although it could be much worse. Hanson is largely a question mark until we see him more often, so keep an eye on him this year. He'll probably make it up to West Virginia at some point in 2012.

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Prospect Profile - Tony Sanchez

Name: Tony Sanchez Position: Catcher Birth Date: May 20, 1988 Height: 6'0'' Weight: 220 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Boston College Acquired: 2009 Draft, 1st Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Sanchez was an unexpected choice for the Pirates with the 4th overall selection in the 2009 draft. He was largely looked at as a signability draft pick, which was backed up by the fact that the Pirates spent a large amount of money on prep pitchers later in the draft. His first two years in the minor leagues made the selection look brilliant. He hit .309/.409/.539 in 2009 and .314/.416/.454 in 2010 before struggling in Altoona last summer with a .241/.340/.318 line. He missed a big part of the 2010 season when he was hit by a pitch in the face, it's possible that that could have effected his 2011 season. The best part of Sanchez's game is his defense, which alone gives him a good chance to make the big leagues some day. However, he had trouble throwing out base stealers last year which added to the frustration of that season. He remains a strong defender with upside on offense. The Pirates are very thin at catcher in terms of prospects, so Sanchez is one of the keys to the farm system. He'll probably start the year in AA again but if he plays well he could earn a pretty quick promotion to AAA.

Prospect Profile - Nick Kingham

Name: Nick Kingham Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: November 8, 1991 Height: 6'5'' Weight: 210 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Sierra Vista HS Acquired: 2010 Draft, 4th Round Major League ETA: 2014

McEffect Report: Nick Kingham was a high ceiling prep pitcher that the Pirates took a chance on in 2010. He signed in time to pitch 3 whole innings in the Gulf Coast League that summer. He surrenered 3 hits and struck out 2 in those innings. He pitched the 2011 season in State College and was very good, posting a 2.15 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 71.0 innings. His fastball doesn't impress too many people as it reaches the lower 90's at best. He has good size and still has a lot of work to do before he's ready to be considered a legitimate big league prospect. Kingham will pitch in A ball again this year, but has more upside than a lot of the other pitchers in the system, so keep an eye on him.

Prospect Profile - Jameson Taillon

Name: Jameson Taillon Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: November 18, 1991 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 225 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: The Woodlands HS (Texas) Acquired: 2010 Draft, 1st Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Taillon joins Gerrit Cole and Luis Heredia in the Pirates very own "big three", for pitching prospects at least. Drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft, Taillon didn't make his professional debut until 2011. In his 92.2 innings last summer, Taillon posted a 3.98 ERA, which is unimpressive. However, Taillon posted 9.4 K/9 and exhibited decent control with just 2.1 BB/9. He is still pretty raw as a prospect, and the Pirates were certainly careful with him in his first year as a pro, so you can't look to ERA to tell you much. Despite the rawness, Taillon has very impressive stuff. He has an upper 90's fastball (as high as 100 MPH), a hard curve that is touted as a plus pitch, and a change up that could use some work. Taillon will most likely start the year in Bradenton to work in the nicer weather before heading up north. There's a good chance he'll be promoted to AA Altoona where he'll spend the majority of his time. He could make a few starts in AAA, but I absolutely don't think there's any chance you see him in the majors until at least May of 2013.

Prospect Profile - Luis Heredia

Name: Luis Heredia Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: August 16, 1994 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 185 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Mexico Acquired: Int'l Signing Major League ETA: 2015

McEffect Report: The Pirates spent big to get Heredia back in 2010, the top international pitching prospect available at the time, writing a check for $2.6 million to get him. Heredia is extremely young at the age of 17, so it is tough to get a real grasp on his potential, but what we do know is that he is already 6'6'' and can throw in the mid 90s. The velocity should improve as he matures, and he has a pretty good curveball already as well. Heredia made his professional debut in 2011 and posted a 4.75 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and an ugly 5.6 BB/9 in just 30.1 innings. Obviously you wouldn't even think to look too much into numbers with a 17 year old kid. The size and stuff is off the chart for his age, and is certainly an exciting prospect in the Pirates system. I hesitate to even predict his ETA, just because he's so far away. At the absolute earliest I would say mid-2014, but I wouldn't expect him until 2015 or 2016.

Prospect Profile - Starling Marte

Name: Starling Marte Position: Outfield Birth Date: October 9, 1988 Height: 6'1'' Weight: 170 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Dominican Republic Acquired: Int'l FA, 2007 Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Marte had a monstrous 2011 season in Altoona with a .332/.370/.500 triple-slash line. That brought his career average line to .309/.366/.453, which makes him a top Pirates hitting prospect. The best part of his game could be his defense. Marte has good speed with a strong throwing arm, a true 5-tool prospect. Marte will more than likely start 2012 in AAA and could be ready for the show in the middle of the season. However, the issue with Marte is that he's being blocked by a pretty young and strong outfield at the major league level. Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata are locked in, and there's no reason to take Alex Presley out of the lineup if he continues to hit like he did in 2011. However, if Presley struggles, Marte could make his debut in 2012. There's a good chance he'll be a very good major league player, although I think he lacks the power that the Pirates really need in their lineup right now. Despite that, Marte remains an extremely important part to the Pirates farm system.

Prospect Profile - Stetson Allie

Name: Stetson Allie Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: March 13, 1991 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 225 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: St. Edwards HS (Ohio) Acquired: 2010 Draft, 2nd Round Major League ETA: 2015

McEffect Report: Allie was a huge acquisition for the Pirates in 2010, spending well above slot in the 2nd round to get him. The Pirates money was spent on a kid who is now one of the hardest throwing pitcher in the system. Allie routinely reaches 100 miles per hour on the radar gun. He also throws a hard slider in the upper 80's, and when it is on it is a plus pitch and an excellent compliment to his fastball. Those pitches amongst a decent changeup help project Allie as a possible ace, although he is not without flaws. His main problems are control and overthrowing, which really go hand-in-hand. Those issues hampered him in 2011 as he posted a 6.58 ERA with a ridiculous 10 BB/9. Some of his development has people believing that he will be a future closer type and not a starter. It's too early to say that, and Allie could very well be used a starter in 2012, only time will tell. My guess is that he'll be given another shot at starting but will eventually end up as a bullpen guy. He has filthy stuff but has a lot of work to do to fill out as a pitcher. Allie is an arm that you don't get your hands on very often, so the Piratse will be very careful with him. He's a big part to the system and could help the Pirates in a big way down the road. I wouldn't expect to see him before 2015, but it could happen.

Prospect Profile - Jeff Locke

Name: Jeff Locke Position: Left Handed Pitcher Birth Date: November 20, 1987 Height: 6'2'' Weight: 180 Bats: Left Throws: Left College/HS: Kenneth HS (NH) Acquired: Trade (for Nate McLouth) Drafted 2nd Rd 2006 Major League ETA: 2012

McEffect Report: Jeff Locke came over in the trade that initially sent Nate McLouth to Atlanta. Locke was just a compliment to Charlie Morton and Gorkys Hernandez, but he has been one of the Pirates best minor league pitchers since. In 2010 he posted a 3.56 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and just 1.6 BB/9 in 144 innings between A and AA. He couldn't quite replicate that success in 2011 with a 3.70 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9. The funny thing was that Locke's struggles were in AA last year with a 4.03 ERA and then he got much better on his promotion to Indianapolis with a 2.22 ERA (in just 28.1 innings). That was good enough for the Pirates to give him a September call up, where he didn't have too much success. He started 4 games for the Pirates and posted a 6.48 ERA with just 2.7 K/9 while walking 5.4 batters per nine. He'll start 2012 in Indianapolis's rotation and could be called up to the big leagues again if he is needed. Locke's stuff isn't going to set the world on fire, but he has been a pretty good pitcher in his professional career thus far. He's a marginal pitching prospect and I wouldn't expect too much from him in his career; let's hope he proves me wrong.

Prospect Profile - Bryan Morris

Name: Bryan Morris Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: March 28, 1987 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 210 Bats: Left Throws: Right College/HS: Motlow State CC Acquired: Trade (Drafted 1st round in 06 by LA) Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Bryan Morris was a part of the Jason Bay trade that looked great at first but now doesn't look so hot. Morris was a big time prospect early in his professional career but has fallen a good ways since then. He has had Tommy John surgery (missed the whole 2007 season) and a few off the field issues while being extremely inconsistent on the field. For his career, Morris has a 3.89 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He has a pretty strong fastball that sits at 93-94 miles per hour and a strong curveball. His change up has never been a great pitch for him, which could explain a lot of the inconsistencies he's had. Morris struggled as a starter at the beginning of the 2011 season (6.04 ERA in six starts), and was then moved to the bullpen where he had much more success (2.05 ERA, 8.0 K/9). He could turn into a decent bullpen arm for the Pirates, but I don't see him as a starter or a future closer. He's running out of time though, so 2012 is a big season for him.

Prospect Profile - Rudy Owens

Name: Rudy Owens Position: Left Handed Pitcher Birth Date: December 18, 1887 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 215 Bats: Left Throws: Left College/HS: Chandler-Gilbert CC Acquired: 2006 Draft, 28th Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Rudy Owens was one of the most exciting prospects in the system heading into last year. He had a few ridiculous seasons in 2009 and 2010 with ERA's of 2.10 and 2.46 respectively and 6.65 and 5.74 K/BB ratios respectively. Owens made a living with location and seemed like he would easily turn into a big league starter someday. Nobody ever expected him to be an ace but I was pretty confident that he would turn into a 4 or 5 starter by last year. However, Indianapolis was not kind to Owens and he posted a 5.05 ERA with 2.22 K/BB ratio in 2011. The stuff isn't good enough to warrant anybody still being very excited about him as a prospect. If he gets his control back, he could help the Pirates rotation as early as 2012, although I wouldn't bank on that happening.

Prospect Profile - Zack Von Rosenberg

Name: Zack Von Rosenberg Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: September 24, 1990 Height: 6'5'' Weight: 205 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Zachary HS, LA Acquired: 2009 Draft, 6th Round Major League ETA: 2015

McEffect Report: Zack Von Rosenberg was another one of the above slot signings the Pirates had in the 2009 draft. He made just one appearance the year he was drafted and pitched 59 innings in 2010 posting a 3.20 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in State College. He took on a full workload in 2011 in West Virginia and didn't respond too well. He pitched 125.2 innings and compiled a 5.73 ERA while striking out 8.2 batters per nine and walking 1.6. Despite the impressive ratios there, Rosenberg was hit hard and often at times last summer. He finished the season strongly, which is encouraging, but gave up a lot of home runs. His fastball sits in the low 90's at best and he compliments it with a curve and a change. 2011 was a confusing year because there were a lot of good signs but the numbers just didn't show it. Let's hope his confidence isn't shaken by it and he can bounce back in 2012. He has pretty good stuff and a lot of time left to work it out, so Von Rosenberg could definitely be a major league pitcher someday, but he's at least 2 years away from being close.

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Prospect Profile - Justin Wilson

Name: Justin Wilson Position: Left Handed Pitcher Birth Date: August 18, 1987 Height: 6'2'' Weight: 233 Bats: Left Throws: Left College/HS: Fresno State Acquired: 2008 Draft, 5th Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: Justin Wilson came into the system without a huge profile, but thanks to a big 2010 season he became one of the Pirates better pitching prospects. In 142.2 innings, Wilson posted a 3.09 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in AA Altoona. After that season it seemed like Wilson could be a future starting pitcher for the Pirates. However, in 2011 at AAA Indianapolis, Wilson struggled a bit. He had a 4.13 ERA for the entire season. He was moved from the rotation to the bullpen in August and really let it go. He was throwing in the upper 90's and even hit triple digits a few times. It's not set in stone that Wilson will stay in the bullpen in 2012, but that would be my guess. He has good velocity and some very solid movement, so he profiles nicely as a back of the bullpen arm.

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Prospect Profile - Gustavo Nunez

Name: Gustavo Nunez Position: Shortstop Birth Date: February 8, 1988 Height: 5'10'' Weight: 170 Bats: Switch Throws: Right College/HS: International Sign, 2007 Acquired: 2011 Rule V Draft Major League ETA: 2012

McEffect Report: Gustavo Nunez switched teams in the 2011-2012 offseason as the Pirates picked him up in the Rule V draft from Detroit. Nunez is a middle infielder with good speed and some developing power. At the time, I did not understand why the Pirates selected Nunez. He has never played above AA, and he played just 34 games there (he hit .215/.252/.289 in those games). I see no way that Nunez can stick in the major leagues at this point in his career, and he will have to do just that if the Pirates wants to hold on to him. Nunez could develop into a good player someday, but he will have to turn into a major league player in 2012 if he wants to develop in a Pirates uniform. The Nunez has some injury issues heading into the 2012 season, which could help the Pirates hold on to him since he won't have to be on the big league roster if he's legitimately injured. There's a good chance you'll see him in Pittsburgh at some point in 2012 just for a trial run. Again, I do not expect him to be a Pirate come June or July.

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Prospect Profile - Kyle McPherson

Name: Kyle McPherson Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: November 11, 1989 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 205 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: University of Mobile Acquired: 2007 Draft, 14th Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: The "Mc" Effect has a prospect of its own. McPherson exploded in 2011 with a 3.02 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a nice 1.08 WHIP. That was far and away McPherson's best season. He hadn't appeared on the Pirates top 20 prospect chart before this year, and now he's in the top 10 in a lot of different places. His fastball doesn't dazzle you, it sits consistently below 94 mph, and his curveball and change up are just slightly above average. He has always been known as a flyball pitcher, which doesn't always project well, but he has kept him home run numbers down as of late. I'm not going to put any money on McPherson becoming a big league starter, but last year was certainly very encouraging. 2012 will be a huge year for this kid as he will more than likely get some serious time at AAA. That AA to AAA jump is huge for pitchers so definitely keep tabs on McPherson. I for one am really hoping that McPherson makes it to the big leagues, if not only so he can strengthen the power of The "Mc" Effect.

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Prospect Profile - Gorkys Hernandez

Name: Gorkys Hernandez Position: Centerfield Birth Date: September 7, 1987 Height: 6'0'' Weight: 175 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Venezuela Acquired: Trade for Nate McLouth Major League ETA: 2011

McEffect Report: Gorkyz Hernandez was a big part of the trade that sent Nate McLouth to Atlanta. He was a top prospect in the game at one point, and has played in a couple future games at the major league all-star break. For his career Hernandez has hit .283/.342/.380 although those numbers are largely influenced by the years he had before he came to the Pirates. Hernandez had his best year in the Pirates system in 2011 with a .283/.348/.392 line with just 1 home run and 21 stolen bases. Hernandez established himself as a great defensive outfielder last year, which could be his ticket to the big leagues. He's never going to be a great hitter, but he could be one of the game's better outfielders if he gets the chance. The Pirates are pretty filled up in the outfield, so I don't see Hernandez ever being more than a bench player in Pittsburgh. Despite Hernandez having 6 years of minor league experience, he is still young at the age of 24. I will hold to my thoughts that the Pirates should try to take advantage of his upside by trading him, but there haven't been any signs of that being a real possibility.

Prospect Profile - Gerrit Cole

Name: Gerrit Cole Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: September 8, 1990 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 220 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: UCLA Acquired: 2011 Draft, 1st Round Major League ETA: 2013

McEffect Report: One of the biggest keys to the Pirates future is Gerrit Cole. The 21-year old has an upper 90's four-seam fastball, a lower to middle 90's two-seam fastball, a long with plus pitches in the slider and change up. Cole had some control issues in his last season as an amateur, which led him to a widely unimpressive 3.28 ERA. If Cole can improve his control and become a mature pitcher, he has the stuff to be a Cy Young contender some day. Chances are he starts the year in Bradenton and works his way up through the year. He could reach AA by season's end, but I don't expect anything higher than that. Starting 2013 in AAA and then making his big league debut mid-season sounds reasonable to me, but that could be only if everything goes right.

Bill James 2012 Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2012 Bill James projections have been released on fangraphs.com, so I decided to pull all the Pirates projections together and post it on here. First of all, here's a quick explanation of the Bill James projection system:


Now here are the stats:

Crosby

... still not funny

Pirates on verge of signing Clint Barmes

The Pirates appear to have their 2012 shortstop signed. That shortstop is Clint Barmes, who played for the Houston Astros last year.

Barmes is a very good defensive shortstop with an unimpressive bat. He isn't a huge liability on offense, and his career numbers are better than Ronny Cedeno's.

The deal is reportedly worth $11 million for two years, which is pretty high. There is a ton of argument going on about this one, and I'm not really sure where I stand.

Basically, the Pirates are probably overpaying here. They could have brought Cedeno back for a year at $3 million and saved money, however they chose to pay more for Barmes, who is better, but not easily much better.

At the end of the day, the Pirates had some money to spend and it's good to see them get a capable big league shortstop early in the offseason and not have to risk spending the entire year with Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco starting.

We'll have more on the move later on.

Pirates are leading candidate to get Clint Barmes

Check this out...


Do you believe in miracles?

Contentment, Perspective, and Adam LaRoche

The Pirates have had some serious issues getting production out of their first basemen in recent years. Garrett Jones, Jeff Clement, Steve Pearce, and Lyle Overbay all tried their hand and did very little to help the team win before the Pirates made a desperation trade to get Derrek Lee, who ended up playing incredibly well in an irrelevant period of two months for the Pirates.

Now, Kevin Creagh at Pirates Prospects has posted something that would make a lot of Pirate fans cringe, the possibility of the Pirates trading for Adam LaRoche.

Yes, Adam LaRoche. The same Adam LaRoche that was easily the least likable Pirate for a span of about two years. From his slow starts to his largely cavalier attitude, LaRoche developed quite a negative reputation.

However, let's not let emotions get in the way of logic and perspective. Adam LaRoche was the best first baseman the Pirates have had (excluding Lee) in a long time.

The Pirates are a pitiful franchise. If I cut one of my fingers off for everything they have done right in the last twenty years, I would still be typing this post conventionally without much trouble. So let's get some perspective and stop finding stupid reasons to dislike players.

Did Adam LaRoche look like his mother had just been killed every time he stepped on the field? Yes. Did Adam LaRoche hit 58 home runs with a .270+ batting average in less than 3 years with the Pirates? Yes. Has anyone else done anything resembling that in recent memory? No.

It's the same way with players like Steve Pearce and Chase d'Arnaud, although neither of them have done anything with the Pirates to make you really like them. Pearce was a good hitter against left-handed pitchers in his career, and he was certainly a benefit to the team when healthy, but people just decide to dislike him because he looks and talks like a mindless jerk. d'Arnaud is never going to get a fair shake because he looks like a high school jock that consistently sleeps with your girlfriend and sister without your permission.

I'm not saying bring Adam LaRoche back, because the price is probably too high and that is important. I'm also not saying that we should completely shut off that possibility. If you want logical perspective, read the post I linked to above. But can we please start realizing what team I am writing about here and the history of that team. If someone can hit the ball over the fence 20+ times a year and hits higher than .250, I want him on the team regardless of what he looks or acts like.

Vote @RTJR For A $10K Scholarship, Please

One of your favorite Pirates personalities is a finalist for a $10,000 scholarship, and he needs all the help he can get to bring home that cheese.

His name is Brian McElhinny of Raise The Jolly Roger. You may know him by his twitter handle of @RTJR. He's a Pittsburgh local that attends the University of Virginia and he's a real guy's guy.

Anyways, you can vote by clicking the below link and voting for "Brian McElhinny" (notice, he's also a member of the McEffect club). Tell your friends, tell your family, vote on multiple computers, do whatever you can.

CLICK HERE TO VOTE

Alex Presley's Trade Value via Pirates Prospects

More great stuff from Pirates Prospects in the past few days, including an article about the trade value of Alex Presley. This is an interesting topic because of the traffic jam developing in the Pirates outfield. Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Presley, Gorkys Hernandez, Starling Marte, and Robbie Grossman all could be competing for playing time in the next 2-3 years, and it seems like the Pirates will be best off trading off some of these guys to fill other holes. Presley seems like the best option to trade in my eyes, just because we simply cannot trade McCutchen or Tabata (which is talked about in the article below), and the rest of that group is unproven with little trade value. I don't think the Pirates should make a move before the 2012 season, just because Presley's value is relatively low right now (in my eyes at least) because of the small sample size. Also, if the Pirates part with him, they're going to have a pretty weak right field again in 2012, which killed us last year. Anyways, read the article below, Tim knows better than I do.

Ramon Santiago vs. Clint Barmes

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a huge hole at the shortstop position as we head into the depth of the offseason. There are a handful of legitimate options to fill the void left by Ronny Cedeno's departure, however I feel pretty strongly that that void will be filled by one of two players.

For whatever reason (and I have no real legitimate one), I have this feeling that the Pirates are going to sign Ramon Santiago. Ever since I saw his name on the free agent list after the Pirates didn't pick up Cedeno's option, he stuck out to me. There is no reason for that, and he's certainly not my first choice, but he is inevitably my prediction for who the Pirates sign. That's weird for me to say, because I hate baseless sports predictions more than anything, but hey, sometimes you've just gotta go with it.

Just last week, MLB Trade Rumors broke the news that the Pirates were "interested" in Santiago, which didn't come as a surprise to anybody, he seems to fit the exact mold of the type of free agent the Pirates usually pursue.

Here's Santiago's career statistics, please try to contain your enthusiasm.


He doesn't wow you at the plate by any means, and Pirate fans are all too used to that from the middle infield. However, Santiago does bring the glove with a 3.6 career UZR/150 rating (for you saberphobics out there - that's pretty strong). The big issue with Santiago is that he has never played anything close to a full season at shortstop in his career. In 2010, he played 85 games as a shorstop, and that's the highest number he has achieved in his career. That said, the flexibility would be nice, he plays a solid second and third base too.

Santiago made $1.35 million last year, so the Pirates could get him at a pretty good price. He isn't going to the best shortstop in the division, he might not even be any better than Cedeno was last year, but in my eyes he would be a serviceable shortstop for 2012 while we see what we have in Chase d'Arnaud.

The other player I think the Pirates will be chasing pretty aggressively is Clint Barmes. Here are his stats:


The bat that Barmes has beats Santiago's because of the additional power he has. In 2009, he hit 23 home runs and slugged .440, which is a very good season for a shortstop who plays very good defense (7.2 UZR/150 in his career, much better than Santiago and Cedeno). Hearing all that is pretty encouraging. It's a no-brainer that Barmes is the best option the Pirates can reasonably expect to have a chance at signing. Barmes made near $4 million last year, so the Pirates would have to pay more to get him, but it's not like the team doesn't have money to spend filling their gaps this offseason.

Both of these shortstops are 32 years old, so neither is an answer for the future. Barmes seems like a very solid option and would indefinitely be an upgrade from Cedeno, the question is whether the Pirates can get him. The Pirates aren't the only team looking for help at the shortstop position. The Astros have interest in bringing Barmes back, then the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies all have serious interest in him. It never seems to work out favorably for the Pirates when a player they are pursuing is being considered by multiple other teams.

It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility to think that the Pirates could sign Barmes, they have enough money to compete with any other team financially for a mid-tier player like Barmes, but the 19-year losing streak certainly doesn't help their case.

Obviously these aren't the only two options, and the Pirates could easily end up signing someone else to play shortstop for them in 2012 (or they could sign no one and just let d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco duke it out, which would be ugly). However, I think both of these players would be upgrades from Cedeno and are definitely financially considerable. The Pirates really confused me to when they didn't pick up Cedeno's option, and if they don't sign one of these two guys I am going to be even more lost.

Steelers Getting Great Play From Receivers

Over the last few years it has seemed like the Steelers were going to develop a pretty big weakness at the wide receiver position. Hines Ward was clearly slowing down, the team parted ways with a rising Santonio Holmes, and a large amount of their hope was in a group of young, unproven receivers that were not very highly touted coming out of college.

However, it seems that this year the receiving core has actually been more of a strong point for the Steelers than anything.

It's not a big surprise to that many people that Mike Wallace has broken out the last two years, but the numbers he has put up this year have been very, very strong. In fact, when you look at the advanced statistics, he's one of the best in the entire league.

Wallace has a 1.34 WPA (win probability added) this year, which is 7th highest in the league. Wes Welker leads everybody with a 2.01 WPA. Another statistic called EPA/P (expected points added per pay) sheds more light on how good Wallace has been. He has added 0.70 points to this team per play, that's the 4th highest number in the league. The three receivers in front of him all play for the Green Bay Packers (James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Greg Jennings). Wallace also has the 5th highest success rate in the league at 70%. Those stats are a lot to handle for people who haven't heard of them before, so go to advancednflstats.com to read up on them.

Wallace's counterpart, Antonio Brown has also had a very, very nice season. His WPA is 12th in the league at 1.03. He is 22nd in the league with 0.36 EPA/P and has a 51.2% success rate. Nobody is talking about Brown being a top-10 receiver, and you'd have to dig a little to find someone who thinks he's even top 25 or so, but he has done very well with the opportunity he has had.

These statistics are all coming from two guys that were picked outside of the 2nd round. Wallace was a 3rd-round pick and Brown went in the 6th-round. With Wallace's speed, it was obvious that he could turn into a legitimate NFL receiver, but Brown kind of came from nowhere.

The Steelers did a nice job grabbing these two guys in the draft and they have benefited big time from their performances this year. If they continue to get better with experience, the Steelers will not have to worry about their receiving core for a long time.

Steelers Advanced Statistics November 13

The Steelers got a big win over the Bengals this weekend. Here's the advanced statistics from the victory:

Pirates Sign Rod Barajas

The Pirates have kicked off their offseason earlier than most would have expected by signing free agent catcher Rod Barajas. That will make Barajas the Opening Day and every day (as every-day as a player of his age and position can be) catcher for 2012.

Barajas is 36 years old and has been in the league since 1999. He spent 5 years with the Diamondbacks, 3 years with the Rangers, a year with the Phililes, two years with the Blue Jays, a half year with the Mets, and a year and a half with the Dodgers.

Most recently, Barajas hit .230/.287/.430 in 2011 with the Dodgers. He played just 98 games last year but managed to hit 16 home runs. He has had 6 seasons with 15 or more home runs, and should help this offense significantly when you look at the bat's that he will be replacing (Michael McKenry, Jason Jaramillo).

Defensively, Barajas has been a pretty good catcher. He has never been fantastic, but he will certainly get the job done. You really did not know what to expect defensively from McKenry, and Jaramillo has never been the greatest, so I do not consider this a downgrade on that side of the ball.

It is pretty surprising that the Pirates have made a move already, and there is no reason to be really excited about this one, but the fact is that it makes us a better baseball team for the 2012 season. Having McKenry and Jaramillo as the catchers would have been incredibly ugly, and it's good to see that management wasn't going to let that be the only options.

I'll have much more about Barajas up later, since that's really the only thing to talk about in Bucco world right now.

Matty Alou Career Highlights via The Hardball Times

The guys over at Hardball Times wrote up a little article honoring Matty Alou, who passed away yesterday. The article covers his career chronologically, and talks a lot about what he did in his time with the Pirates. Check it out.

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Ronny Cedeno vs. Free Agent Shortstops

I have been talking a lot about Ronny Cedeno lately, and how much I disagree with the Pirates choice to not pick up his $3 million option. Yesterday, I compared Cedeno to the Pirates other options, Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco. Today, I want to look at the free agent options and see how they match up with Cedeno.

For the sake of getting too in depth, I am using two statistics for this argument. I'm using Weighted On Base Average (wOBA - explained here) for the offensive side, and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR/150 - explained here) for the defensive side. Let's get to it.

First, here's the list of the available free agent shortstops, sorted alphabetically:

Clint Barmes, Yuniesky Betancourt, Orlando Cabrera, Jamey Carroll, Ronny Cedeno, Craig Counsell, Rafael Furcal, Alex Gonzalez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Cesar Izturis, John McDonald, Nick Punto, Edgar Renteria, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Ramon Santiago, Jack Wilson

Let's look at the offensive numbers first. Here are the players and their 2011 wOBA followed by their career wOBA, in order.

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2011 wOBA:

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Career wOBA:

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Obviously, Reyes is the best of the bunch, he is one of the game's best players, and just because of that fact; the Pirates have no chance at signing him, so let's let that fantasy die.

You can see Cedeno doesn't compare too well on the offensive side of the ball. All but five of the available free agents had better seasons with the bat than Ronny in 2011. Now let's look at defense:

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2011 UZR/150:

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Career UZR/150:

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Cedeno compares much more favorably with the glove. That is partly thanks to the fact that Cedeno played much better defense in 2011 than he had on average in his career, and there is no way to know if that will happen again in 2012 or he will regress (although the more likely option is probably the latter). However, Cedeno is one of the better defensive free agent shortstops.

There were three players that were better in both categories than Ronny in 2011: Hairston Jr., Barmes, and Santiago. Here are the ages and 2010 salaries of those three players:

Jerry Hairston Jr. (35) - $2.0M
Clint Barmes (32) - $3.925M
Ramon Santiago (32) - $1.35M

For all three players, the Pirates would have to pay more (if not much more) than the above numbers to get them to come to Pittsburgh. Considering the fact that they had the chance to give a 28 year old Cedeno 3 million to stay, I'm guessing they aren't going to be too interested in giving an older player more money than that.

Now obviously, those three players are not the only ones that would be an upgrade from Cedeno. As an offensive-minded guy, here's a rough list of the players I would take over Cedeno from this year's free agent pool:

Reyes, Punto, Rollins, Hairston Jr., Carroll, Barmes, Santiago, Furcal, Gonzalez.

Again, you can scratch off Reyes and Rollins right away, the Pirates do not have a prayer of getting either of them. The only players from that list that the Pirates could get cheaper than Cedeno would probably be Carroll and Santiago. I wouldn't rule the Pirates completely out of the bidding war for anybody besides Reyes and Rollins, but it certainly will not be easy.

Bottom line is, there is a chance here to upgrade at the position for 2012 and still save money (or not lose too much of it), but I still don't understand the risk of downgrading. Cedeno is comparable to any player the Pirates have a chance at getting, he is younger than most of them, and they had the guarantee of getting him had they just forked the $3 million. This could turn out positively if the Pirates can sign Santiago (who I think is the best choice) or one of the other above players, but until we do that, I say it was a poor decision to let Cedeno go.