Twas The Night Before Opening Day

Twas the night before Opening Day
And all through the city
Pirate fans were optimistic
Oh, such a pity

Eighteen straight years of losing
And losing some more
Have left Pittsburgh baseball fans
Of happiness poor

Another spring full of losses
Oh, what a shocker
But a light of hope comes
with McCutchen, Tabata, Alvarez, and Walker

The offense should produce
That's what the experts say
The pitching still isn't there
Experts: ".500? No way!"

It's a new look team this year
Young players and a new manager to boot
Should be exciting to watch
On FSN... er I mean ROOT

It's not easy to love a bad team
PNC Park attendance is thin
People under the age of eighteen
Have never seen this team win

But be proud of your fanhood
You are so far from weak
It'll all be that much better
When the Pirates end this streak

Big management decisions have been made
Decisions this year will reflect
If you want to live a happy life
Visit often, The "Mc" Effect

It's tough being a Pirate fan
When wins every year is something we lack
But stay positive and put a smile on
For baseball is back

Pirates vs. Phillies, Exhibition 2

Pirates vs. Phillies
4:05 EST
Charlie Morton vs. Cole Hamels

2011 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview and Predictions

The 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates baseball season is just days away. To get you geared up and ready, I'm going to provide a quick look at all the starters and pitchers and give some predictions as to what I think their numbers are going to look like this year. Let's get right to it:

Catcher #1: Chris Snyder - Snyder is a defense first catcher, and that is exactly why the Pirates brought him in last year. He has decent power but is not going to impress anybody with the bat. The reason we are considering him an upgrade from last year's Opening Day Catcher is because of the defensive ability he brings. He will certainly help the Pirates in that aspect, but I'm not sure how much he can do with the bat.
Prediction: .235 AVG, .315 OBP, 12 HR, 40 RBI

Catcher #2: Ryan Doumit - Not many Pirate fans wanted to still be talking about Doumit at this point of the year, most of us wanted him to be traded a long time ago. However, the Pirates could not find a buyer and Doumit is back on the roster again for 2011. When Snyder is healthy, Doumit will be the backup catcher with the ability to play some right field and first base. He will be the team's primary pinch hitter if they have Jaramillo on the roster to serve as the backup catcher, but if not he will not be seeing much playing time.
Prediction: .265 AVG, .310 OBP, 8 HR, 35 RBI

First Baseman: Lyle Overbay - One of the biggest offseason moves the Pirates made was bringing in Overbay. There were a lot of mixed thoughts about the move, but Overbay had a very impressive spring and is looking to help this Pirate offense in any way he can. It would be really, really hard for him to not be an upgrade over the combination of Jeff Clement and Garrett Jones that played first base for the Pirates last year.
Prediction: .275 AVG, .340 OBP, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Second Baseman: Neil Walker - Walker had a huge impact when he came up to Pittsburgh last season. There is really no way to be confident in predicting his 2011 season, but we can say that the ceiling is very high. I am going to take a more conservative approach with my prediction, but I don't see why he couldn't repeat some of last year's success.
Prediction: .270 AVG, .345 OBP, 19 HR, 67 RBI

Shortstop: Ronny Cedeno - Shortstop was another position that Pirate fans were hoping to improve on coming into 2011, however the Pirates were unable to do it. Cedeno is back and the ceiling is still low.
Prediction: .240 AVG, .280 OBP, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Third Base: Pedro Alvarez - One of the biggest reasons to be excited about the 2011 season is the man at third base. Alvarez has a higher ceiling than anybody on the Pirates, possibly aside from McCutchen. I'm expecting big things from Alvarez this year. He still has a lot of things to work out with his defense and with some of the holes in his swing, but I certainly would not be shocked if Alvarez is a top 3 offensive third baseman in the National League this year.
Prediction: .275 AVG, .320 OBP, 33 HR, 95 RBI

Left Field: Jose Tabata - One of the big four in this Pirates lineup, Tabata is an extremely versatile player. He plays good defense and has very useful speed on the basepaths. After his call-up, he was one of the Pirates best hitters, and one of the best players in terms of hits in the National League. Tabata isn't going to hit for power, but I'm expecting him to get on base quite a bit and score a lot of runs for the Buccos this year.
Prediction: .295 AVG, .355 OBP, 90 R, 7 HR, 55 RBI, 40 SB

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen - The most popular Pirate, the sky seems to be the limit for this guy. We all know what he can do, and I am going to be pretty bold in my prediction here.
Prediction: .320 AVG, .380 OBP, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 35 SB

Left Field: Garrett Jones - Jones was an everyday player last year, but those days appear to be over. With the addition of Diaz, Jones will only get starts when there is a right hander on the mound. That actually turns out to be around 70% of the time in today's league, so Jones should see the field a good bit. His batting average is going to look high in this prediction, but remember, he won't have to face as many lefties this year, which should help.
Prediction: .275 AVG, .345 OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI

Left Field #2: Matt Diaz - Diaz will start in right field games with a left handed pitcher on the mound for the opposing team. That will result in him not getting as many at bats as he had in the past, so we will see how that affects his numbers. He is an extremely good hitter against lefties, so his batting average should be very high this year.
Prediction: .310 AVG, .360 OBP, 9 HR, 40 RBI

Bench: Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez was the Pirates Rule 5 pick that was slightly outperformed by Pedro Ciriaco this spring but got the nod because of his upside and the fact that the Pirates did not want to lose him. He won't play all that often, but if Cedeno goes down he could step in and impress some people.
Prediction: .250 AVG, .290 OBP, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB

Bench: John Bowker - Bowker won't be guaranteed to be on the big league team all year long, so it's hard to predict what he'll do this year. That said, I am really glad he is on the team right now and hope he gets some at bats this year, I really like the power he brings.
Prediction: .260 AVG, .305 OBP, 8 HR, 30 RBI

Bench: Steven Pearce - Pearce earned a spot on this year's roster with a pretty good spring and the ability to play a little bit of third base. Pearce could be a good pinch hitting option off lefties, and brings a little bit of power to the table. Who knows how long he'll stay in the bigs, he seems to have problems with that, but Pearce is a decent guy to have on the roster.
Prediction: .280 AVG, .335 OBP, 5 HR, 25 RBI


I did a preview of the starting rotation in January, and that is a lot more in depth than what this is going to be, so if you want to read more, you can check that series out right here.

Starting Pitcher: Kevin Correia - Correia did not look very good most of the time this spring, and the Pirates really have not had any success in recent years with free agent pitchers. My predictions are pretty low and I really hope he pitches better than what I say he will, and I think there is a very good chance that he will do just that.
Prediction: 4.45 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: Paul Maholm - After a very discouraging 2010 season, I have even lower expectations for 2011. This pitching staff is bad, and Maholm is probably the worst guy in my opinion. Hopefully he will prove me wrong.
Prediction: 4.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: Ross Ohlendorf - No one was worse in spring training than Ohlendorf. He wasn't making good pitches and was getting hit really hard. Things were looking extremely optimistic for Ohlendorf before last season, but that's not really the case anymore. He still has pretty big upside but I'm not too optimistic for him this year.
Prediction: 4.30 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: James McDonald - One of the Pirates only pitchers that can actually get swings and misses, McDonald actually provides Pirate fans with the hope of a dominating pitching performance when he is on the mound. Let's hope he realizes some of his potential and continues on his solid career in Pittsburgh that he started last summer. I'm pretty optimistic, is that a mistake?
Prediction: 3.60 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: Charlie Morton - Morton was one of the Pirates few bright spots in spring training. He looks poised to become a solid major leaguer. However, one or two ugly outings early in the season could send him back to the days of zero confidence and getting lit up every time out. Cross your fingers people.
Prediction: 4.00 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Relief Pitcher: Joel Hanrahan - Hanrahan has been named the team's closer and should be very solid at the back end of the bullpen for the Bucs. He could have some struggles early on, but when all is said and done I think he'll be one of the better relievers in the National League.
Prediction: 3.45 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9

Relief Pitcher: Evan Meek - Meek was the Pirates lone all-star last year. That was a testament to how bad the rest of the team was. I think Meek might take a step backwards this year, but will still be a very good pitcher.
Prediction: 3.05 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9

Relief Pitcher: Chris Resop - Resop was surprisingly good for the Pirates last year in his short time with the team. I don't expect another 1.89 ERA, but I think he'll be a really good 7th inning guy for the Bucs.
Prediction: 3.10 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

The rest of the bullpen is kind of a crapshoot, so I'm not going to bother trying to predict what will happen there.

All-in-all this is a much better team than the 2010 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

All of this considered, my prediction for the Pirates record in 2011 in 72-90, a 5th place finish in the National League Central (right in front of the Houston Astros).

Pirates vs. Phillies, Exhibition

Pirates vs. Phillies
7:05 EST

Opening Day 25 Man Roster

I got on here with the intention of wrapping up the final roster spot selections and giving you a list of what the 25-man roster is going to look like. However, it looks like Brian from Raise The Jolly Roger has beat me to it. I'm gonna do a quick copy and paste job and give you the Opening Day 25 Man Roster, here it is:

Starting position players (8): Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Garrett Jones, Lyle Overbay, Ryan Doumit, Ronny Cedeno

Bench (5): Matt Diaz, Josh Rodriguez, Jason Jaramillo, Steven Pearce, John Bowker

Rotation (5): Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton

Bullpen (7): Joel Hanrahan (CL), Evan Meek, Garrett Olson, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, Michael Crotta, Jeff Karstens

Read more of Brian's post here.

Jaramillo was able to make the roster because of the news that Chris Snyder will start the season on the DL. Snyder will only be out a couple of weeks, so by the end of April the Pirates will have a decision to make on who to keep between Jaramillo and Bowker. Bowker is out of options, so that will weigh into the decision. We will see how that turns out.

The Pirates play 2 exhibition games in Philadelphia the next two nights before traveling to Wrigley Field for Friday's season opener.

Get pumped.

Pirates vs. Twins, Spring Training Game 31

Pirates (11-19) vs. Twins (18-11)
1:05 EST

We have finally reached the last 2011 Grapefruit League game. Jeff Karstens makes the start for the Pirates against Twins ace Francisco Liriano.

Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata LF, Neil Walker 2B, Andrew McCutchen CF, Ryan Doumit DH, Steve Pearce 1B, Matt Diaz RF, Ronny Cedeno SS, Josh Rodriguez 3B, Jason Jaramillo C

This lineup is a lot like what we are going to see when the regular season rolls around. Tabata, Walker, McCutchen will be 1-2-3, followed by Lyle Overbay and Pedro Alvarez. The six hole will be occupied by the right fielder that day, either Diaz or Garrett Jones. After that it's the catcher 7 and Cedeno 8, although those slots could be flip flopped if Snyder or Jaramillo is starting behind the plate. Snyder is heading to the DL to begin the season, so we will be seeing Jaramillo get some playing time in the first week or two before Snyder returns. After that, we'll see what the Pirates choose to do. They could be sending Jaramillo back down, or keeping him and sending John Bowker down, who is all but a lock to make the roster now.

2011 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview Podcast

Corey from threeriversburghblog.blogspot.com joined me on the podcast to go position-by-position and preview the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Click here to listen to it.

Follow Corey on twitter @threeriversblog.

Pirates Pitching Problem

Coming into this 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates campaign, it was no secret that the Pirates biggest issue was pitching. What the Pirates have done this spring has done absolutely nothing to prove that belief false. Yesterday's 9-5 loss was the 8th time in the Pirates 28 spring training games that they gave up more than 7 runs. The Pirates gave up a lot of runs early on in spring, and I expected it to get better once the big league guys started getting more innings. That hasn't been true, it has actually gotten worse. Over the last three games the Pirates have given up 30 runs, and that is with major leaguers like Evan Meek, Brian Burres, Chris Resop, Ross Ohlendorf, Garrett Olson, Charlie Morton, Joel Hanrahan, and Jose Veras pitching. It has been a very ugly spring training in terms of pitching.

Now the fact that the Pirates are giving up a lot of runs and losing games really does not mean much of anything in relation to the regular season. We've heard comments from Ohlendorf and some other guys about not being worried about the bad results because they're just trying to work out some stuff before they really start attacking hitters and taking advantage of hitters weaknesses. That's fair. However, it is certainly not a good thing to see your pitching staff get lit up game after game, especially after the already low expectations heading into the season.

Let's put it this way, if the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff was getting hit around this spring, I don't think anybody would worry. Those guys are established big leaguers that everybody knows will be extremely effective when the regular season rolls around. That's not true at all from the Pirates. We really do not have one proven solid big league starter, so it's very discouraging to not see anybody really stepping up and getting guys out at a good rate. Now, Morton had been great until his last start yesterday, but he really has not done anything at the major league level to warrant us being too optimistic about him this year.

Over these 28 spring training games, the Pirates are giving up 5.75 runs per game, that's a half a run more than they gave up last season when they finished last in the National League in that category. A lot of those runs have come off of guys we won't be seeing pitch in the regular season, so let's take a look at the numbers for the guys we are going to be seeing in the majors this year:

Paul Maholm: 20 IP, 26 H, 10 ER, 5 HR, 4.50 ERA
Kevin Correia: 18.1 IP, 27 H, 13 ER, 2 HR, 6.38 ERA
Ross Ohlendorf: 14.1 IP, 27 H, 16 ER, 4 HR, 10.05 ERA
James McDonald: 6.2 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 4.05 ERA
Charlie Morton: 19 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, 1 HR, 3.32 ERA

Joel Hanrahan: 7.2 IP, 11 H, 8 ER, 3 HR, 9.39 ERA
Evan Meek: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 4.26 ERA
Chris Resop: 11.1 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 3.18 ERA
Jose Veras: 11 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1.64 ERA
Jeff Karstens: 7 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 2.57 ERA
Brian Burres: 14 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 3.86 ERA
Garrett Olson: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 HR, 15.43 ERA
Joe Beimel: 2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 18.00 ERA

That's a pretty ugly list. It would be really nice to say that things can only go up from here, but judging from last season, I do not feel confident in saying that. The Pirates have a bunch of pitch to contact guys that get hit hard when they're location isn't good, and with a bad defense behind them, that leads to some ugly statistics and a lot of losses.

Here's hoping the Pirates pitchers get good... somehow.

Joel Hanrahan/Evan Meek for Kevin Slowey?

The Minnesota Twins have chosen their 5 starters for the regular season, and Kevin Slowey is not one of them.

The Twins feel that it would be in their best interest to trade the capable major league arm to sure up their bullpen, so they are shopping him around the league looking for a back of the bullpen guy in return.

The Pirates have been talked about as a potential team that could bring Slowey in. Now the Pirates officials have not said they are interested in the trade, but speculation has occurred regardless.

If the Pirates were going to make this trade, they would have to part with either Joel Hanrahan or Evan Meek, both very good back of the bullpen arms.

So would it be a good idea to trade Hanrahan/Meek for Slowey? I say absolutely yes. Starting pitching is infinitely more important in this league than relief pitching, especially for a team like the Pirates that are in dire need of better starters.

Without even looking at Slowey's numbers, I can say that this trade would benefit the Pirates. While it's not super easy to find stellar arms like Hanrahan and Meek, it certainly isn't hard to find capable big league relievers. The Pirates have one of the better back ends of the bullpen in the National League, but that's not getting us any more wins. If the Pirates want to win they need starting pitching, not really good 3 inning a week guys.

Slowey is a solid major league pitcher. His best year was in 2008 when he went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA. He isn't a huge strikeout pitcher (6.9 K/9 career), but he knows how to get guys out. He would be a better option than Maholm and Ohlendorf in my eyes.

The Pirates have an offense with big upside, they just do not have any pitching. I see this as an opportunity to get a capable big league starter without giving up too much. We can totally afford to lose Hanrahan or Meek. Having good bullpen arms doesn't help you much when your starters are giving up 5-6 runs every time out.

Pirates vs. Rays, Spring Training Game 28

Pirates (10-17) vs. Rays (13-12)
1:05 EST

Pirates Lineup: Pedro Ciriaco (CF), Josh Rodriguez (SS), John Bowker (LF), Ryan Doumit (C), Steven Pearce (3B), Andy Marte (1B), Corey Wimberly (2B), Charlie Morton (SP)

Interesting defensive alignment today for the bucs. Ciriaco in center field is probably the most interesting. The Pirates have been impressed with his spring training and there is no doubt that they are considering taking him to Pittsburgh. They believe that he is athletic enough to play some outfield in addition to the stellar defense he brings in the middle infield, and it would helpful for the Pirates to have that speed and versatility available for outfield innings. Rodriguez is batting right behind Ciriaco and playing shortstop. Only one of those two guys are going to make it to the majors, and these last few games might be the deciding factor. Pearce is getting another chance to play third base today to try and show the Pirates that he is good enough there to be a solid backup to Pedro Alvarez. Marte gets the call at first base, he could definitely see some games there this season if he makes the team like I expect him to. Wimberly is getting another start, even though he is basically out of the running for a big league job.

Pirates Pitchers:Charlie Morton, Joel Hanrahan, Jose Veras

Morton has been the most exciting Pirates pitcher to watch this spring and I'm excited to see him get another go at it. I'm guessing he'll stay in the game as long as he can before hit pitch count gets too high. He should have 1 more spring start after this one, but it's safe to say that he has already locked up a spot in the rotation.

Astros vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 26

Astros (10-18) vs. Pirates (10-15)
1:05 EST

The Pirates are down to their final 8 spring training games before they go to Chicago for the season opener on April 1st. The Pirates take on the Astros today, who they are expected to be battling for 5th place in the division with this year. Brian Burres will make the start for the Pirates. Other pitchers and lineups have not been posted yet, but I'll get to those as soon as I get them.

Twins vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 25

Twins (12-10) vs. Pirates (10-14)
1:05 EST

The Pirates got a fantastic start from Charlie Morton yesterday and are now only 11 days away from Opening Day. Today's game will be on mlb.tv. Paul Maholm will be on the hill for the Pirates, and he will be followed by the newest Pirate, Garrett Olson. Olson was a guy the Pirates pretty much had to get since the other big league left handed bullpen options, Scott Olsen, and Joe Beimel, are dealing with injuries. Olson has never been a very good pitcher, but he strikes out batters at a decent rate and has an advantage being a southpaw. It'll be interesting to get our first look at him today.

Pirates Pitchers: Paul Maholm, Garrett Olson, Jose Veras, Sean Gallagher

The Pirates cut Garrett Atkins today, who was the front runner for a bench spot coming into spring training. He struggled mightily here in March and will be looking for a job elsewhere. That leaves Steve Pearce and Andy Marte as the front runners for a bench spot. Pearce is going to have to be able to play third base well if the Pirates take him to the big leagues come April, and I don't know if he's quite there yet. My bet is now on Marte, who has been hitting the ball extremely well this spring, and is a better defensive option than Pearce. Despite that, you can see Pearce is starting in left field today, so the Pirates certainly have not made their decision yet.

Pirates Lineup: Andrew McCutchen (CF), Neil Walker (2B), Steven Pearce (LF), Lyle Overbay (1B), Matt Diaz (RF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Josh Rodriguez (SS), Jason Jaramillo (C), Paul Maholm (LHP)

Pirates vs. Astros, Spring Training Game 24

Pirates (9-14) vs. Astros (10-14)
1:05 EST

Charlie Morton takes the hill for the Pirates today looking to improve on his already impressive spring. Pirates Pitchers: Charlie Morton, Evan Meek, Michael Crotta, Chris Leroux

Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (CF), Steven Pearce (3B), Neil Walker (2B), Matt Diaz (RF), Andy Marte (1B), Ryan Doumit (C), Josh Fields (LF), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Charlie Morton (P)

A lot of interesting things in today's lineup. Tabata gets the start in center in the absence of Andrew McCutchen, Pearce is at third working on his new position, and Marte is playing first trying to give the Pirates more reason to take him into the majors come April. I really don't think Marte has much of a shot but he has been playing very very well in spring training thus far. Fields is also in the lineup and playing left field.

Pirates vs. Phillies, Spring Training Game 22

Pirates (8-13) vs. Phillies (13-8)
1:05 EST

Pirates Pitchers: Brad Lincoln, Chris Resop, Justin Thomas, Jose Veras, Michael Crotta, Chris Leroux

Pirates Lineup: Corey Wimberly (CF), John Bowker (LF), Steven Pearce (RF), Ryan Doumit (C), Garrett Atkins (3B), Andy Marte (1B), Josh Rodriguez (2B), Pedro Ciriaco (SS), Brad Lincoln (RHP)

Orioles vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 21

Orioles (8-9) vs. Pirates (8-12)
1:05 EST

Pirates Pitchers: Ross Ohlendorf, Joe Beimel, Scott Olsen, Daniel McCutchen, Sean Gallagher

Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (LF), Neil Walker (2B), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Matt Diaz (RF), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Jason Jaramillo (C), Ross Ohlendorf (SP)

Blue Jays vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 20

Blue Jays (8-9) vs. Pirates (8-11)
1:05 EST

Pirates Pitchers: Paul Maholm, Jeff Karstens, Joel Hanrahan

Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (LF), Neil Walker (2B), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Garrett Jones (RF), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Dusty Brown (C), Paul Maholm (LHP)

Pirates vs. Orioles, Spring Training Game 19

Pirates (8-10) vs. Orioles (7-7)
1:05 EST

Red Sox vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 18

Red Sox (9-7) vs. Pirates (7-10)
1:05 EST

Phillies vs. Pirates, Pirates vs. Blue Jays, Spring Training Games 16 & 17

Phillies (9-6) vs. Pirates (7-8)
1:05 EST

Pirates Lineup: Alex Presley (CF), Garrett Jones (RF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Neil Walker (2B), John Bowker (LF), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Jason Jaramillo (C), Ross Ohlendorf (SP)

Pirates Pitchers: Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Veras, Aaron Thompson, Tyler Yates



Pirates (7-8) vs. Blue Jays (6-7)
1:05 EST

Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (LF), Josh Rodriguez (2B), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Matt Diaz (RF), Andy Marte (3B), Josh Fields (1B), Garrett Atkins (DH), Chris Snyder (C), Corey Wimberly (SS)
Chris Snyder has been scratched from the lineup for today's game.

Pirates Pitchers: Jeff Locke, Sean Gallagher, Daniel McCutchen, Ramon Aguero, Michael Crotta

Pirates vs. Rays, Spring Training Game 15

Pirates (6-8) vs. Rays (5-7)
1:05 EST

Pirates Lineup:Jose Tabata (LF), Garrett Jones (RF), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Neil Walker (2B), Josh Fields (1B), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Dusty Brown (C), James McDonald (SP)

Orioles vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 14

Orioles (5-5) vs. Pirates (6-7)
7:05 EST



Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (LF), Matt Diaz (RF), Neil Walker (2B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Garrett Atkins (3B), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Gorkys Hernandez (CF), Jason Jaramillo (C), Paul Maholm (SP)

Pirates Pitchers: Paul Maholm, Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Chris Resop, Jeff Karstens, Tony Watson

Tonight's game is going to be shown on FSN at 7:05. Unfortunately for us, Pedro Alvarez is not in the lineup, but it'll be fun to see Tabata and Walker, guys we didn't get to see in the last televised game. The pitching should be fun to watch as well as the Pirates 8th and 9th inning guys both take the hill. We'll see Maholm go up to 4 innings if he doesn't reach his pitch count, then every guy will get one inning from there on if Maholm makes it through the 4th.

Kevin Correia - A Closer Look

One of the Pirates biggest acquisitions this offseason was Kevin Correia, a 30 year old right handed starting pitcher from the San Diego Padres. Correia hasn't been very impressive early on in spring training (8.1 IP, 13 H, 7 ER, 5 BB), but Pirate fans still expect him to have a pretty good season and help this pitching staff improve significantly from last year. I want to take a closer look at Correia, so let's get to it.

First off, let's take a look at how Correia looks when he's pitching. Better yet, let's take a look at how Correia looks when he's pitching in PNC Park. Here's a couple of snapshots from a start he made against the Pirates last year (courtesy of mlb.tv):


Now let's get into the statistics. All the numbers I'm about to show you are from the last 3 major league seasons (2008, 2009, and 2010). Here's the basic stuff (courtesy of baseball-reference.com):


As you can see from the numbers, Correia has been pretty inconsistent the last 3 years. He was pretty awful in his 25 starts in 2008 with the Giants, he was really good in his 33 starts in 2009 with the Padres, and he was bad again in 2010. His strikeout rates have been rising the last 3 years, and his walk rate isn't a big concern. Those stats only tell us so much, so let's look the pitches he throws (courtesy of texasleaguers.com):


You can see that he throws his slider a lot. It's really not a great slider, but he controls it well. His 65.4% strike rate with the slider is 2 percentage points above the league average, however his 10.5% whiff rate is 3 percentage points below the league average. It's a pretty hittable pitch, as 1 of every 5 of his sliders is put into play (that is also above the league average). The velocity of the pitch is harder than most guys throw a slider, but not by much. The horizontal movement is slightly above average but the vertical movement is right on pace with the rest of the league. He has decent movement on it, but not enough to make it a plus pitch. However, he feels confident throwing the pitch in any count, so you'll be seeing a lot of sliders from him this year.

Like almost every other pitcher, Correia throws his fastball more than any other pitch. He throws a couple different types of fastballs, his favorite being the 2-seam fastball. He throws it 28% of the time and it's average velocity is an unimpressive 90.8 miles per hour (2 miles below the league average). It doesn't move much, which explains the 6.1% whiff rate. Despite the average at best whiff rate, batters swing at it and put it in play significantly below the league average, and Correia controls it pretty well with a 62.6% strike percentage.

Those are Correia's 2 main pitches. He also throws a 4-seam fastball, some sort of cut fastball, a changeup, and a curveball. He really doesn't throw the changeup or curveball very much, which is odd. His curveball actually has above average movement on it, but his whiff rate is below average. He throws it for a strike a respectable 57% of the time (right on pace with league average), so the low whiff rate is kind of confusing given the movement the pitch has on it.

Let's take a quick look at Correia's pitch selections for these three years taken independently.
2008: Fastball - 49.8%, Slider - 37.9%, Changeup - 8.1%, Curveball - 3.8%
2009: Fastball - 50.3%, Slider - 32.3%, Curveball - 10.9%, Changeup - 5.9%
2010: Fastball - 50.1%, Slider - 32.5%, Curveball - 9.0%, Changeup - 8.2%

It's interesting that he threw his curveball more in 2009, the year that he had a lot of success, but it probably doesn't mean that much.

So there are his pitches, let's see what happens when he throws them (courtesy of fangraphs.com):


You can see from these numbers that Correia was a pretty big flyball pitcher in 2008 and 2009, but got a lot more groundballs last year. In these 3 years combined, 21.06% of his at bats have ended in a groundout, and 14.48% of his at bats have ended in a flyout. In his career he has a flyball percentage of 37.0% and a groundball percentage of 42.3%. That's a lot more fly balls than most pitchers get, which could end in bad things when you consider that he is going from a very pitcher friendly Petco Park to a more hitter friendly PNC Park. I would be surprised if his home run rates didn't go up this year just because of that change. He is going to have to try and induce more groundballs this year to be successful.

So what do we get from all of these numbers? A couple of things:

Kevin Correia...

• has average stuff, at best
• has slightly above average control
• has been very inconsistent in his career
• gives up too many flyballs
• does not induce enough groundballs
• will be negatively effected by the factors of his new home ballpark
• is a lot better than Zach Duke :)

Pirates vs. Twins, Spring Training Game 12

Pirates (5-6) vs. Twins (6-3)
1:05 EST


The Pirates will actually be playing 2 games today. The other game, the "b" game, is being played prior to the 1:05 game. There are no lineups posted for that game but we do know that Steve Pearce was supposed to start the game at 3rd base. Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, and Ramon Aguero will be pitching in that game while Brian Burres, Sean Gallagher, Fernando Nieve, Chris Leroux, Jeff Locke, and Daniel McCutchen will pitch in the 1:05 game. The "b" game doesn't count for grapefruit league records.

The "Mc" Effect Podcasting: 2011 St. Louis Cardinals Preview

Aaron Hooks from www.cardsdiaspora.com came on the podcast to talk about this year's St. Louis Cardinals team.

You can listen to the podcast here or get it on iTunes here.

Rays vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 11

Rays (1-7) vs. Pirates (5-5)
1:05 EST


Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (LF), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Neil Walker (2B), Matt Diaz (RF), Garrett Atkins (3B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Chris Snyder (C), Gorkys Hernandez (CF), Ross Ohlendorf (SP)

Pirates Pitchers:Ross Ohlendorf, Evan Meek, Jose Veras, Tyler Yates, Michael Crotta, Danny Moskos

Blue Jays vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 10 + LIVEBLOG

Blue Jays (3-5) vs. Pirates (5-4)
1:05 EST




Pirates Lineup: Corey Wimberly (SS), Pedro Ciriaco (2B), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Matt Diaz (LF), Steve Pearce (RF), Josh Fields (1B), Dusty Brown (C), James McDonald (SP)

Blue Jays Lineup: Corey Patterson (CF), Yunel Escobar (SS), Jose Bautista (3B), Travis Snider (DH), Edwin Encarnacion (1B), Eric Thames (LF), Rajai Davis (RF), J. P. Arencibia (C), Mike McCoy (2B)

Pirates Pitchers: James McDonald, Joel Hanrahan, Aaron Thompson, Daniel McCutchen, Chris Resop, Justin Thomas, Jeff Locke

Pirates vs. Phillies, Spring Training Game 9

Pirates(4-4) vs. Phillies (4-3)
1:05 EST

The Pirates made their first round of cuts today, with no surprise players being cut. Tony Sanchez, Eric Fryer, Donnie Veal and Cesar Valdez have been sent to minor league camp.

The batting order looks pretty interesting today, check it out:
Pirates Lineup: Andrew McCutchen (CF), Jose Tabata (LF), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Neil Walker (2B), Garrett Jones (DH), Ryan Doumit (C), John Bowker (RF), Chase d'Arnaud (SS)

Pirates Pitchers: Paul Maholm, Jeff Karstens, Tony Watson, Sean Gallagher, Chris Leroux, Rudy Owens

Phillies vs. Pirates, Spring Training Game 8

Phillies (3-3) vs. Pirates (4-3)
1:05 EST

Pirates Lineup: Jose Tabata (LF), Pedro Ciriaco (SS), Neil Walker (2B), Lyle Overbay (1B), Matt Diaz (DH), Garrett Jones (RF), Andy Marte (3B), Chris Snyder (C)

Pirates Pitchers: Kevin Correia, Brian Burres, Fernando Nieve, Bryan Morris, Kyle McPherson, Daniel Moskos

Stealing Bases

One of the stories we've heard a lot this spring is that the Pirates plan to be more aggressive on the basepaths this year. There are mixed feelings about this idea, but I think a lot of fans are for it. After all, the Pirates haven't been doing a whole lot right the last 18 years, so changing this aspect of the game could certainly help.

In the last 10 years, the Pirates have been one of the worst teams in the National League in terms of stealing bases. They rank 13th of the 16 national league teams in average steals per year since 2000. Here's the rest of that data:

The yellow shading indicates a year that the specified team was below the league average for that same year. As you see, the Pirates were below that average 7 of the 10 years, which is shown in the far right column.

Now when you look at this data and the teams near the top of the list, that all comes down to who is on the team. Stealing bases isn't a team game, one or two players can put your team at the top of the league by themselves in this category. As you see, the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins are the top 3 on this list. That is largely because of guys like Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Juan Pierre, and Hanley Ramirez. Having one player that can steal 50+ bases a year is going to bolster your team's stats up dramatically. The Pirates have not really had a player that can steal a ton of bases until just recently, with Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutchen. Despite those two stealing bases a pretty good rate, the Pirates were below the league average every year since 2003, with the exception of 2009 in which they were only 1 steal over it.

So all that said, it really all comes down to who you have on your team, but the management of the team also plays a decent role. If you were looking at American League stats, you would see that the Angels would be at or near the top of this list every year. They are a team that runs no matter who is on the base. Just watch an Angels game and you will see that.

The Pirates have not had that philosophy in recent years, they have been pretty conservative on the bases. That is going to change, at least somewhat, this year, and having speedsters like Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata will certainly help. The Pirates don't have much behind those two in terms of major league players that can steal bases, but they have a couple guys that are fighting to make the team this spring that can steal bases in Corey Wimberly and Josh Rodriguez. Those two probably won't get much playing time even if they do make the team, so their impact will be limited. Outside of McCutchen and Tabata, there's not many guys that have been known to steal bases that will be starting for the Pirates this year. Here's a breakdown of some of the main Pirates this year, and their career success (or lack thereof) in stealing bases.

Chris Snyder and Pedro Alvarez were the only starters left off of that list. Snyder was left off because he has never stolen a base in his 7-year major league career, and Alvarez was left off because he didn't even attempt to steal last year in his time in the majors, and he has no minor league history of trying it either.

As you can see from that data, the Pirates really don't have much in terms of speed outside of McCutchen and Tabata. Ronny Cedeno has had a little bit of success in stealing bases, totaling 12 as his career high last year. Matt Diaz also has a career high of 12, which isn't a surprise at all.

The Pirates don't need to have more than McCutchen and Tabata stealing bases, if those two can steal 70-80 combined I think we'll be in good shape. However I think Clint Hurdle will be asking some of these other players to steal more bases than they have in the past. Neil Walker is a guy that I can see being decently effective at stealing. He's an athletic kid who is a smart baseball player. I'd expect 10-15 steals from Walker this year. Garrett Jones also has a little bit of speed, stealing 10 in his short 2010 season.

As I mentioned earlier, if Wimberly and/or Rodriguez make the team, they can be expected to contribute in steals. Wimberly stole a ridiculous 56 bags last year and Rodriguez had a 20 steal season in 2007.

There is more to basepath aggressiveness than just stealing bases as well, I think we'll see the Pirates being more aggressive in going first to third and second to home this year. Now that will result in some guys being thrown out, and probably the Pirates running out of some innings this year, but hopefully the players will be smart with it, and with a little bit of good fortune it could add some significant runs onto the Pirates totals this year.

I think it's worth mentioning that Pirates prospect Chase d'Arnaud can also steal bases. He stole 33 bases last year in AA and averages .268 steals per game. He could very well be the starting shortstop later on in summer, so he's a guy you should be keeping an eye on.

Stealing bases is just another category that the Pirates have been unsuccessful in in recent years, but I do expect that to change this year. I think the Pirates can be pretty good in the steals department this year, and it should be exciting to watch.